Orange Crush is East, Not West:
Federal Parties All Tied Up as Quebec Buoys NDP (30%) to Statistical Tie with Tories (31%), Grits (31%) Nationally

Toronto, ON -The Federal NDP has moved into a statistical tie with the other two major national parties--and it's not post-Provincial Election Alberta that's pushing them towards the high levels of support they achieved in the 2011 election: it's Quebec that boosted them in the last federal election where the NDP (41%) now has a 16-point lead over the Liberals (25%) in Quebec with the Bloc at 20% and the Conservatives way back at 11% according to a new Ipsos poll conducted for Global News.

In fact, the national stage has the three parties in a statistical tie. If an election were held tomorrow the Harper Conservatives would receive 31% of the decided vote (down 4 points since the beginning of April), the Trudeau Liberals would get 31% (down 2 points) and the Mulcair NDP would net 30% (up 5 points ) - but there is hardly a national NDP voter popularity wave sweeping the country: the NDP, as noted, now leads widely in Quebec (and by 3 points in British Columbia) but isn't in the race, yet, anywhere else. Mario Beaulieu and the Bloc would receive 4% nationally (unchanged), and other parties (including Elizabeth May's Green Party) would receive 4% of the vote (up 1 point). The undecided vote is 13% and 9% would not vote or spoil their ballot.

Remembering that the roads to electoral victory in Canada are found in the regions, the latest voter map shows the following:

• In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (51%) have a commanding lead over the Conservatives (24%), NDP (21%) and other parties (3%).
• In Quebec, the NDP (41%) has a solid lead over the Liberals (25%), Bloc (20%), Conservatives (11%) and other parties (3%).
• In Ontario - where the election is likely to be either lost or won for the governing Tories - the Conservatives (36%) and Liberals (35%) are in a dead heat with the NDP (24%) and other parties (5%) trailing.
• In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the Conservatives (41%) lead the Liberals (34%), NDP (23%) and other parties (1%).
• In Alberta, the Conservatives (54%) are well ahead of the NDP (31%), Liberals (14%) and other parties (2%).
• In British Columbia, the NDP (34%) leads the Liberals (31%) and the Conservatives (28%) in a close race, with other parties (7%) behind.

(Click to enlarge image)

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between May 27th and 29th, 2015 on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,003 Canadians (including 832 decided voters) from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/ - 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadian adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
(416) 324-2002
[email protected]

About Ipsos in Canada

Ipsos is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos' marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry.

With offices in 86 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of e1,669.5 ($2,218.4 million) in 2014.

Visit www.ipsos.com to learn more about Ipsos' offerings and capabilities.