Possible Contenders to the Throne: Who Has Momentum?

Toronto, ONTARIO - With Prime Minister Jean Chretien indicating that he will vacate his job by February 2004, speculation on who will replace him is now the betting game. This Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe & Mail poll measures the impressions (positive/negative/no impression) that the public and decided Liberal voters have of 4 possible key contenders - Paul Martin, John Manley, Alan Rock and Shelia Copps. At this stage, momentum is a key ingredient to the potential success of any leadership hopeful.

In order to determine momentum, a simple deduction is done: setting aside those with no impression, negative impressions are subtracted from positive impressions. The resulting number either shows a "plus or minus" total. A plus total means positive momentum whereas a minus total indicates negative momentum. These momentum scores can then be compared with other individuals who are measured.

Not unexpectedly, Paul Martin leads the way with 60% of the public (and 71% of decided Liberal voters) having a positive impression of him, with only 13% of the public (and 11% of decided Liberal voters) having a negative impression of him. One quarter (25%) of the public, and 18% of decided Liberal voters, have yet to form either a positive or negative impression of the perceived front-runner. As for momentum, the former Finance Minister is at +47 among the public and at +60 among decided Liberal voters.

Deputy Prime Minister John Manley arrives in second place in terms of momentum with 26% of the public giving him a positive impression (34% of decided Liberal voters) while 15% of the public (including 11% of decided Liberal voters) give him a negative impression. Fifty-eight percent of the public and 53% of decided Liberal voters have yet to form an impression.

As such, Mr. Manley has a positive momentum of +11 among the public and +23 among decided Liberal voters.

Industry Minister Allan Rock has a positive impression rating of 24% among the public and 30% among decided Liberal voters compared with 22% of the public who have a negative impression including 17% of decided Liberal voters. Fifty-two percent of the public, including 51% of decided Liberal voters, hold no impression of the Minister. Mr. Rock's momentum is at +2 among the public and +13 among decided Liberal voters.

Heritage Minister Shelia Copps lags considerably out of the gate in comparison with her potential rivals - 23% of the public including 29% of decided Liberal voters have a positive impression of the Minister compared with 39% of the public, including 31% of decided Liberal voters who have a negative impression of Ms. Copps. Thirty-eight percent of the public, including 40% of decided Liberal voters, do not have an impression of the Minister. Ms. Copps momentum is -16 among the public and -2 among decided Liberal voters.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll conducted between August 13th and August 14th, 2002. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 971 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

To view the complete release and tables, please open the attached PDF files.

-30-

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
President and COO
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900