Reform Leads in Calgary

With only ten days left in the federal election campaign, the Reform Party holds a considerable lead over the other competitors in Calgary, according to the most recent Angus Reid Group/Calgary Herald survey. Bolstered by increased approval for its leader, the Reform Party has a favorable showing throughout the city, particularly the southern portion, while the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives are locked in a battle for second place among Calgary voters.

The Progressive Conservatives also show a considerable degree of momentum in the campaign, with their leader, Jean Charest, replacing Prime Minister Chretien as the second most popular federal leader in the city. In contrast, the Liberal campaign in the city has little momentum -- the Prime Minister's approval ratings have leveled off, and been overtaken by Charest.

These findings are gleaned from an Angus Reid Group/Calgary Herald telephone survey conducted among a representative cross section of 705 Calgary voters between May 20th to 22nd. With a city-wide sample of 705 interviews, one can say, with 95% certainty, that the results are within ±3.7 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Calgary been interviewed. When examining these data according to smaller sub-sets of the sample (e.g. by age, gender, etc.), the margin of error increases depending upon the sample size of the individual category of analysis.

Party Standings

• With the June 2 election quickly approaching, only 5% of Calgarians say that they are currently undecided about the direction of their vote.
• Currently in the city, the Reform Party holds a strong lead over other electoral alternatives, with just over one-in-four (43%) decided voters reporting a likely Reform vote on election day. The Liberals and Conservatives are battling for a second place showing on election day, with nearly identical portions of the decided vote (26% and 24% respectively).
• Trailing in a distant fourth, the New Democrats receive support from 4% of city voters, while a collection of other parties gain 3% of the decided vote.
• Reform's strongest showing is in the southern half of the city, and among males and older voters. In contrast, the Liberals and Conservatives fare best in north Calgary, and with voters under the age of 55.
• The Reform Party also enjoys the "most solid" support of any party. Two-thirds (66%) of likely Reform voters say they are "very certain" of their choice, while an additional 25% are "fairly sure". The Liberal and PC vote in the city is substantially more "soft". Only 37% of intended Liberal voters say they are very sure of their decision, while 28% are fairly sure. Just over two-thirds of Tory voters state any degree of certainty about the direction of their vote on election day -- 32% Very Certain, 36% Fairly Certain.
• In addition to the durability of Reform partisanship, the Reform Party benefits from the fact that its supporters are most likely to turnout on election day. Fully 88% of Reform partisans say they are "absolutely certain" that they will cast a ballot on June 2nd, compared to only 76% and 59% for the Conservatives and Liberals respectively.
• Turning to an assessment of possible vote switching behaviour, one finds that the Progressive Conservatives would likely be the main benefactors of a drop in Reform support between now and election day. Nearly one-half (48%) of Reform supporters identify the Conservatives as their party of second choice, compared to only 18% for the Liberals. The Liberals are the clear second choice for a most PC voters (50% would choose the Liberals compared to 30% selecting Reform as the next best choice). Liberal defectors will likely be split primarily between the PCs (39%) and New Democrats (24%) -- only 17% of Liberal supporters chose Reform as their second choice.
• Election outcomes are determined not only by positive feelings toward parties, but also by individual aversion to other parties. The New Democratic Party suffers from high negativity, with 33% of city voters saying they could never support the federal NDP. Interestingly, the Reform Party places second in terms of party aversion, with 25%, followed by the Liberals (19%), PCs (13%), and a host of other parties (15%). Only 6% of Calgarians say they could support any of the federal parties, while another 8% were unsure.

Federal Leadership Evaluations

• Reform leader, Preston Manning, is currently the most popular federal political leader in the city, with over six-in-ten (61%) of Calgarians reporting approval for Mr. Manning. Jean Charest, climbs to second place with 59% approval, followed by Jean Chretien (54%) and finally Alexa McDonough with 37%. While the Prime Minister retains the confidence of over one-half of city voters, he also suffers from the highest negativity, with 43% of those surveyed expressing disapproval for his conduct as Liberal leader.
• Mr. Manning enjoys strongest favor in southern portions of the city, particularly in the South East, while Charest holds a modest edge over other leaders in the north half of Calgary. Mr. Chretien's totals are consistent throughout the city, except for in the South East, where only 47% of those interviewed express approval for the PM.

Federal Government Approval

• Interestingly, while the federal Liberals are not the choice of most voters, this decision does not appear driven by past performance. When asked to rate the Liberal government's conduct since being elected in 1993, a slim majority (52%) of Calgarians offer approval. Support for the Liberal government is highest in the North West quadrant of the city (59%) and lowest in the South East (47%).
• Partisanship is clearly related to evaluations of the federal Liberal government, with only 29% of Reform supporters offering a favorable grade, compared to 87% of those planning on voting Liberal and 51% of likely PC voters.

The Federal Issue Agenda in Calgary

• Unemployment, mentioned by 49% of those interviewed as one of the top election issues, leads the list on the Federal Issue Agenda in Calgary. National Unity also ranks highly, with 42%, followed by concerns about health care
• (35%), government deficits and debt (28%), and rounding out the top-five, education (21%).