Six in Ten (60%) Say Prime Minister Chrйtien Should Leave Now (47%) or By Christmas (13%) - Just Four in Ten (38%) Say He Should Stay On Till February

Toronto, ONTARIO - As the Liberal Party meets this weekend in Toronto to formally choose Paul Martin as its new leader, six in ten (60%) Canadians feel that current Prime Minister should resign immediately (47%) or by Christmas (13%) allowing Mr. Martin to take over sooner than planned according to a new Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll released today. However, four in ten (38%) believe that Mr. Chrйtien should stay until his original retirement date of February 2004.

Once Mr. Martin is sworn in, Canadians appear to give him time to settle into his new position before he needs to call an election. In fact, just three in ten (30%) say Mr. Martin needs to call an election immediately after becoming Prime Minister, while 68% give him a longer time frame to work with. Four in ten (41%) feel that he should call an election within a year of taking over from Jean Chrйtien as Prime Minister, while an additional 27% says that Mr. Martin should have until the end of the current Liberal mandate in 2005 before having to call a general election.

Canadians appear to be relatively modest in their expectations of Mr. Martin as the country's new Prime Minister. In fact, when asked about his initial approach to some key matters, at least eight in ten Canadians feel that things will be better off or about the same with Mr. Martin as Prime Minister than they are currently. The issue that appears Canadians feel will most benefit from Mr. Martin moving into 24 Sussex Drive is the country's relationship with the United States. On this front, a majority (54%) feel that Canada-US relations will be better than currently with Mr. Martin in charge, while a further 35% say that it will be about the same as it is now.

Following Canada-US relations on this ranking is `relations with the provincial governments' (better 48%; about the same 40%), the `economy' (better 42%; about the same 46%), `financial support for Canada's Armed Forces' (better 38%; about the same 49%), `healthcare' (better 37%, about the same 49%), `listening to the views of all of Canada's regions' (better 37%, about the same 48%), `representing the views of the public in government decisions' (better 33%, about the same 51%), and finally `ethics in government' (better 31%, about the same 53%).

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll conducted between November 10th and November 13th, 2003. The telephone survey is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,056 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

Half (47%) of Canadians say that current Prime Minister Jean Chrйtien should resign immediately after the Liberal convention, allowing Mr. Martin to become Prime Minister sooner than planned. A further one in eight (13%) feel that Jean Chrйtien should leave sometime around Christmas, while 38% believe that Mr. Chrйtien should stay until his original retirement date of February 2004.

• Regionally, residents of Alberta (59%) are significantly more likely than those in Quebec (46%), Ontario (45%) and Atlantic Canada (39%) to believe that Prime Minister Chrйtien should step down immediately after this weekend's convention.

• Older (58%) Canadians are significantly more likely to say that Prime Minister Chrйtien should step down immediately after the Liberal convention than are their middle aged (49%) and young adult (32%) counterparts. Young adults (56%), on the other hand, are more likely to feel that the Prime Minister should be allowed to stay until his original retirement date of February 2004 than either middle aged (35%) or older (25%) Canadians.

• Men (50% versus 43% of women) are more likely to say that the Prime Minister should step down immediately, while women (42% versus 35% of men) are more likely to feel he should stay on until his original retirement date of February 2004.

• University graduates (18%) are more likely than those with a high school education or less (12%) and those with a post-secondary education/some university (9%) to feel that Prime Minister Chrйtien should step down sometime around Christmas.

Three in ten (30%) Canadians say that Paul Martin should call an election immediately after becoming Prime Minister. A slightly higher proportion (41%) feels that he should call an election within a year of taking over from Jean Chrйtien as Prime Minister. One-quarter (27%) believes that Paul Martin should have until the end of the current Liberal mandate in 2005 to call a general election.

• In most regions, the top option is that the election should be called within a year of Mr. Martin becoming Prime Minister. This option is highest in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (47% versus 32% who feel an election should be called immediately), followed by Atlantic Canada (44% versus 26%), Quebec (41% versus 27%) and Ontario (39% versus 28%). In Alberta (immediately 41% versus 37% within one year) and British Columbia (immediately 38% versus 37% within one year) the verdict is more evenly split.

• Among age groups, the top choice is also an election call within one year. Middle aged (32%) Canadians, however, are significantly more likely to feel that Paul Martin does not have to call an election until 2005 when the current Liberal mandate runs out, than are their young adult (24%) and older (24%) counterparts.

• There are no significant differences on this question across gender, education or household income groups.

Canadians appear to be modestly optimistic regarding Mr. Martin's tenure as Prime Minister. In fact, when asked their views on how Mr. Martin will perform on a number of key matters, at least eight in ten feel that things would be better off or about the same with Mr. Martin as Prime Minister than they are currently. The issue that appears will most benefit from Mr. Martin moving into 24 Sussex Drive is the country's relationship with the United States. On this front a majority (54%) feel that Canada-US relations will be better than currently with Mr. Martin in charge, while a further 35% say that it will be about the same as it is now. One in twenty (6%) feel that relations with the United States will in fact be worse off with Mr. Martin as Prime Minister.

• Residents of Saskatchewan/Manitoba (60%), Alberta (60%), Ontario (58%), and British Columbia (56%) are significantly more likely than those in Quebec (43%) to believe things will be better in Canadian-American relations.

• Older (58%) and middle-aged (58%) Canadians are significantly more likely than young adult (46%) Canadians to feel this way.

• This view is also more likely to be shared by men (59%) than women (50%).

• University graduates (64%) are significantly more likely to hold this view than are those with a high school diploma (53%), a post-secondary education/some university (50%), or those with less than a high school diploma (46%).

• Canadians from upper income households (61%) are more likely than those form either middle (53%) or lower (46%) income households to hold this position.

Following Canadian-American relations on this ranking is `relations with the provincial governments' (better 48%; about the same 40%, worse 8%), the `economy' (better 42%; about the same 46%, worse 7%), `financial support for Canada's Armed Forces' (better 38%; about the same 49%, worse 7%), `healthcare' (better 37%, about the same 49%, worse 10%), `listening to the views of all of Canada's regions' (better 37%, about the same 48%, worse 10%), `representing the views of the public in government decisions' (better 33%, about the same 51%, worse 11%), and finally `ethics in government' (better 31%, about the same 53%, worse 10%).

• Older (55% versus 47% of middle aged and 43% of young adult) Canadians are significantly more likely to feel that `relations with other provinces' will be better with Mr. Martin as Prime Minister. Ontarians (54%) are more likely to believe this to be the case than Quebecers (42%). University graduates (55%) are more likely than those with a post-secondary education/some university (45%) and those without a high school diploma (41%) to believe things will be better off on this front.

• Men (47%) are more likely than women (37%) to feel that the `economy' will be better off with Mr. Martin in charge. This view is also more likely to be held by those from the highest income households (48%) compared to those from the lowest income households (39%).

• Older (47%) Canadians are significantly more likely than middle aged (34%) and young adults (33%) to believe that `financial support for Canada's Armed Forces' will be better off. Regionally, this view is strongest in British Columbia (45%), Atlantic Canada (44%), Ontario (42%), Alberta (41%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (41%). Quebec residents (23%) are least likely to hold this opinion.

• Older (44%) Canadians are significantly more likely than either middle-aged (35%) or young adult (33%) Canadians to feel that the `healthcare' system will be better off. This view is also more likely to be held by Ontarians (42%) than by those in British Columbia (28%) or Alberta (28%). Canadians without a high school diploma (49%) are significantly more likely than those with a post-secondary or university education (35%) to believe that this will be the case.

• Older (47%) Canadians are significantly more likely than either their middle aged (34%) or young adult (32%) counterparts to feel that things will be better off with Mr. Martin regarding `listening to the views of all of Canada's regions'. Interestingly, there is no significant difference between regions regarding that things will be better off on this front with Mr. Martin in charge. As for the view that things will get worse, the only significant difference occurs between those in British Columbia (14%) and Alberta (5%).

• Older (38%) Canadians are more likely than their middle-aged (30%) counterparts to feel that Mr. Martin will be better at `representing the views of the public in government decisions'. This view is also more likely to be held by residents of Atlantic Canada (44%) and Ontario (38%) than by those in Alberta (25%) and British Columbia (21%).

• Regarding ethics in government, older (40%) Canadians are significantly more likely than either middle-aged (30%) or young adult (26%) Canadians to feel that things will be better regarding this issue with Mr. Martin as Prime Minister. University graduates (36%) are significantly more likely than those with a post-secondary education/some university (29%) to feel that things will be better off regarding ethics in government.

Please open the attached PDf files to view the release and detailed tables.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
President and COO
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900