A Special Report: Attacking Iraq

Toronto, ON - According to a new Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll released tonight, when asked directly about a possible attack on Iraq, only four in ten (40%) Canadians say they would approve of the United States taking military action against Iraq in order to remove President Saddam Hussein from power, while half (52%) of Canadians do not approve of such a move.

Meanwhile, six in ten (62%) believe that Canada should provide military assistance for any military action against Iraq only if the United Nations, and not just the United States, decides that such a situation is required. In contrast, just 15% believe that if the United States takes military action on its own against Iraq, without UN authorization, Canada should support the effort by providing military assistance. One in five (18%) say that Canada should not provide any military assistance to either the U.S. or the UN in the event a decision is made to take military action against Iraq.

These findings compare to the views of Canadians from late last summer as war talk gathered steam that showed just over four in ten (August 44% and September 43%) who said that if the United States takes military action towards Iraq to overthrow Saddam Hussein, Canada should support them by sending our own armed forces to help.

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll conducted between January 14th and January 16th, 2003. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,005 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

Only (40%) Approve of United States Taking Military Action to Oust Hussein, and Two-Thirds (64%) Say Canada Should Provide Military Assistance Only If UN Authorizes Military Action

When asked directly about a possible attack on Iraq, four in ten (40%) Canadians say they would approve of the United States taking military action against Iraq in order to remove President Saddam Hussein from power, however half (52%) of Canadians do not approve of such a move.

• Approval of U.S. military action in Iraq is strongest in Alberta (54%), Sasktachewan/Manitoba (54%), Atlantic Canada (53%) and Ontario (45%) while disapproval is highest in Quebec (71%) and British Columbia (60%).
• Men (46% versus 35% of women) are more likely to approve of U.S. military action.
• Approval is highest among younger (44%) Canadians compared to older (36%) Canadians.

Six in ten (62%) believe that Canada should only provide military assistance for any military action against Iraq if the United Nations, and not just the United States, decides that such a move is required.

• Canadians with a university degree (68%) or some university/other post-secondary education (66%) are more likely to choose this option than are those with a high school diploma (58%) or with out a diploma (54%).

In contrast, just 15% believe that if the United States takes military action on its own against Iraq, without UN authorization, Canada should support the effort by providing military assistance.

• Men (18%) are more likely than women (12%) to hold this view.
• Residents of Alberta (24%) are the most likely to say this what Canada should do, while Quebecers (7%) are least likely to hold this view.

One in five (18%) say that Canada should not provide any military assistance to either the U.S. or the UN in the event a decision is made to take military action against Iraq.

• This group of Canadians is strongest in Quebec (26%), while they are weakest in Alberta (7%).
• Women (21%) are more likely to hold this view than are men (15%).
• Canadians in lower income households (25%) are more likely to hold this view than are those in middle (17%) or upper (12%) income households.

Seven in Ten (72%) Say Iraq is Not Telling Truth in List of Weapons Provided to United Nations

Seven in ten (72%) Canadians do not believe Iraq is telling the truth regarding the list of weapons, which it provided to the United Nations in December. In comparison, 14% say they believe Iraq while an equal proportion (14%) say they `don't know'.

• Regionally, residents in Alberta (81%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (81%) are more likely to not believe Iraq than are those in Ontario (69%) or Quebec (69%). Meanwhile, residents of Quebec (21%) are the most likely to say they believe Iraq, while residents of British Columbia (15%) and Ontario (18%) are the most likely to say they `don't know'.
• Middle aged (76%) and younger (74%) Canadians are more likely they their older (67%) counterparts to say they do not believe Iraq's claims.
• Canadians in upper income households (78%) are more likely than those in lower income households (70%) to say they do not believe Iraq is telling the truth.

If U.S. Claim to Have Evidence of Banned Weapons, Six in Ten (63%) Canadians Would Believe UN Weapons Inspectors -- 24% Would Believe U.S. Administration

Given the scenario that the U.S. administration says it has evidence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and the UN weapons inspectors says they had found no evidence of these weapons, two thirds (63%) of Canadians would be more likely to believe the UN weapons inspectors, while 24% indicate they would believe the American administration.

• Belief in the UN inspectors is higher among residents of British Columbia (68%) and Quebec (68%), while it is lowest in Alberta (58%). Men (68% versus 58% of women) and older (67% versus 60% of middle aged) Canadians are more likely to say they would be more inclined to believe the UN weapons inspectors.
• Of those who say they would be more likely to believe the United States administration, a higher proportion of younger (28%) Canadians than older (19%) Canadians hold this view.

However, six in ten (61%) feel that Iraq has hidden its weapons of mass destruction and its programs to develop such weapons so well that the UN inspectors will not be able to find any evidence of them. This compares to 28% who believe the weapons inspectors will be able to find the weapons and/or weapons programs. One percent say they do not believe Iraq has weapons of mass destruction or programs to develop such weapons.

• Canadians in middle income households (70% versus 60% in lower income households), are more likely to say the Iraq has hidden their weapons so well that the UN inspectors will not be able to find them.

Who's a Threat to World Peace?

One-third (36%) of Canadians believe that its southern neighbour, the United States of America, is currently the biggest threat to world peace. This compares to the number that believe this distinction is held by the al Qaida (21%) terrorist network or Iraq (17%), while North Korea, which last week threatened to start a Third World War, is the choice of just over one in ten (14%) Canadians. Eleven percent say they `don't know'.

• Residents of Quebec (44%) are the most likely to hold the view that the United States is currently the biggest threat to world peace. Younger (44%) Canadians are more likely than either their middle aged (35%) or older (30%) counterparts to share this view of the United States. Canadians from lower income households (43%) are more likely than are their counterparts in middle income households (34%) to believe the U.S. represents the biggest current threat to world peace.
• The al Qaida terrorist network is more likely to be the choice of older (26%) Canadians than of younger (17%) Canadians
• Canadians who do not have a high school diploma (29%) are the most likely to select Iraq as the biggest current threat to world peace.
• Men (19%) are more likely than women (10%) to say North Korea holds this distinction.

While 83% of Canadians Say They Like Americans, A Majority (57%) Indicate They Don't Like Bush Administration and Only 39% Feel U.S. Administration is a "Good Force in the World"

Despite a discord on the military action being contemplated by the Bush administration, a substantial majority (83%) of Canadians say they actually like Americans - that is people who live in the United States of America.

• Albertans (91%) and residents of Atlantic Canada (89%) are the most likely to agree with this view, while those in Quebec (78%) are the least likely to hold this position.
• Canadians in middle (89%) and upper (88%) income households are more likely to say they like Americans than are those in lower income households (76%).

This contrasts with six in ten (57%) Canadians who indicate that they do not like the current U.S. political administration of President George W. Bush, including a plurality (34%) who strongly hold this position. In total one-third (35%) say they like the current administration.

• Support for the current administration is highest among Albertans (53%), while it is lowest among residents of Quebec (21%). In fact, 73% of Quebecers say they dislike the current administration.
• Canadians with a university degree are the most likely (67%) to see they dislike the current U.S. administration. This compares to the views of those with a high school diploma (42%), without a high school diploma (36%) and those with some university/other post-secondary education (35%).

Only 39% agree with the view that "the George Bush administration is a good force in the world", while 52% disagree with this proposition.

• Residents of four of six regions in Canada do not believe the Bush administration is a "force of good in the world": Quebec (62% versus 34%), British Columbia (58% versus 35%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (55% versus 39%), and Ontario (48% versus 39%). Atlantic Canada is split with 47% saying the Bush administration is a good force in the world, while 45% disagree. The only region that believes outright that the US administration is a "force of good in the world" is Alberta (56% versus 39%).
• Men (42%) are more likely to say that the United States is a "force of good in the world" than are women (37%).
• Canadians who have a university degree (63%) are the most likely to disagree that the United States administration is a "force of good in the world".

To view the complete media release and tables, please open the attached PDF files.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900