Strong Support for Charest as Leader of the Quebec Liberal Party

All things considered, six in ten (62%) Canadians believe it would be a "good idea" for Jean Charest to leave the leadership of the federal Progressive Conservative Party to run for the leadership of the Liberal Party of Quebec. This sentiment is prevalent both inside Quebec (63%) and in the rest of Canada (62%). In the minority, one-third (33%) of Quebecers and 24% throughout the rest of the country believe that Charest's move to provincial politics would be a "bad idea".

Charest (58%) is the favourite candidate for the Quebec Liberal leadership

Lisa Frulla (15%) lags behind in second place

On the basis of an open-ended question, Quebecers were asked who they believe would be the best person to replace Daniel Johnson as the leader of the Quebec Liberal Party (because respondents were also invited to provide an alternate candidate, totals exceed 100%). Jean Charest received the resounding support of 58% of Quebecers. In second place, Lisa Frulla received 15% of total mentions and Pierre Paradis, who has recently stepped out of the race, received 10% of total mentions. One-quarter (26%) of Quebecers are undecided on this issue.

While Charest's support is strong among all socio-demographic groups in Quebec, it is strongest among those over 55 (72%), those who have not completed high school (66%) and the most affluent (67% among those with household incomes over $60,000). While he is still their favourite, younger Quebecers are the least likely to name Charest as the best candidate (51% among those between 18 and 34 years).

Charest's leadership positions the Quebec Liberals to win a provincial election

Charest and the Liberals fall behind the Parti Quebecois among voters between 35 and 55

Given a scenario where Jean Charest led the Liberal Party of Quebec, Lucien Bouchard led the Parti Quebecois, and Mario Dumont led the Parti Action Democratique, half (50%) of Quebecers indicate that they would support the Liberal Party if an election were held "tomorrow". The Parti Quebecois led by Lucien Bouchard garners the support of 37% of Quebecers and the Parti Action Democratique led by Mario Dumont captures 7% of the vote.

Fortunes for a Charest-led Liberal party vary across different socio- demographic groups. In particular, it is weakest among younger Quebecers. In fact, the Liberals fall behind the Parti Quebecois among those between 35 and 54 (39% versus 45%) and only inches ahead of the PQ among those between 18 and 34 (43% versus 40%). Charest and the Liberal party pull ahead of the pack among those over 55 years as they capture three quarters (73%) of their support (the PQ captures 20% of the vote among those over 55 years).

Although both men and women are inclined to support Charest and the Liberal Party over the other alternatives, women are stronger supporters of Charest and the Liberal Party than men are (53% versus 46% respectively).

Since the Angus Reid Group last asked Quebecers this question (February 1998), support for a Charest led Liberal party has increased from 46% to 50%. Alternately, support for the Parti Quebecois (39% to 37%) and the Parti Action Democratique (9% to 7%) have softened.

This Globe and Mail/Angus Reid Group Canada-wide poll was conducted by telephone between March 4th and March 10th, 1998 among a representative cross-section of 1,500 adult Canadians; a sub-sample of 400 adult Quebecers are part of this survey.

The data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian and Quebec population according to the 1996 Census data.

With a national sample of 1,500, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within ±2.6 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. With the Quebec sub- sample, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within ±5.0 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within the various sub-groupings of the survey population.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
Executive Vice-President
The Angus Reid Group Ottawa
(613) 241-5802

OR

Christiane Bourque
Senior Research Director
The Angus Reid Group
Montreal
(514) 877-5550

OR

W. John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900