Throne Speech Buoys Wynne Liberals (40%) Ahead of Tories (35%),
But Only 25% Believe Liberals Deserve Re-Election

Toronto, ON - The Ontario Liberal Government's Speech from the Throne has lifted the Ontario Liberals ahead of the Progressive Conservatives, although the bounce in support could be short lived given that most Ontarians do not believe the Wynne Liberals deserve re-election, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News.

If a provincial election were held tomorrow, the Liberals under Premier Wynne would receive 40% of the vote among decided voters, which is up 5 points from a similar poll taken in the days prior to the Throne Speech. The Progressive Conservatives under new leader Patrick Brown would receive 35% support (down 2 points), while Andrea Horwath and the NDP would receive 20% of the vote (down 3 points). Just 5% (unchanged) of the vote would go to some other party, including the Green Party. Nearly two in ten (16%) Ontarians say they either would not vote (7%) or that they are unsure of who they would vote for (9%).

The contents of the Throne Speech appears to have convinced some wayward Liberal voters who had temporarily placed their vote with the NDP or PC to come back into the fold. However, the data suggest that the bounce in support for the Liberals might be short-lived, given that many of the underlying attitudes towards the government are not positive:

• Just one quarter (25%) of Ontarians believes the Wynne government has done a good job and deserves re-election, which, counterintuitively, is down 3 points.160 Conversely, three quarters (75%) believe it's time for another provincial party to take over. In May, 2015, 31% believed the government deserved re-election.
• One in three (35) `approve' (5% strongly/29% somewhat) of the performance of the Liberal government under Kathleen Wynne (up 3 points), while two in three (65%) `disapprove' (42% strongly/23% somewhat). Wynne's approval rating is down from 42% in May, 2015.
• A majority (62%) of Ontarians believe that the province is heading in the `wrong direction' (up 3 points), while a minority (38%) believes things are on the `right track' (down 3 points).
• Current Premier and Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne is chosen by 28% of Ontarians as the major party leader who would make the best Premier of Ontario, well behind both NDP Leader Andrea Horwath (37%) and PC Leader Patrick Brown (35%). None of these figures have changed since before the Throne Speech. In May, 2015, the race was much tighter: Horwath (36%), Brown (33%), Wynne (31%).

By merging the pre and post Throne Speech surveys together, one is able to take a more robust look at the results by key demographics that often inform the outcome of an election:

• In the 416, Toronto Proper, the Liberals (45%) are well ahead of the PCs (30%), NDP (19%) and other parties (5%).
• In the 905 region surrounding Toronto, the Liberals (41%) and PCs (40%) are statistically tied, while the NDP (17%) and other parties (2%) trail significantly.
• In Southwest Ontario a relatively tight race has emerged: the PCs (35%) have a modest lead over the Liberals (30%) and NDP (29%), while 7% of the vote would go to other parties (7%).
• In Central Ontario, the PCs (49%) are well ahead of the Liberals (26%), NDP (22%) and other parties (3%).
• In Eastern Ontario, the Liberals (39%) lead the PCs (34%), NDP (19%) and other parties (8%).
• In Northern Ontario, the Liberals (36%) have the edge over the PCs (31%) and NDP (26%), while other parties (7%) are behind.

Interestingly, there are no significant differences based on gender. However, vast generational differences exist:

• The Liberals have 53% of the vote among those aged 18-34, but drop to 30% among 35-54 year olds, and 32% among those aged 55+.
• Conversely, the PCs would receive 47% of the vote among those aged 55+, but drop to 39% among those 35-54, and just 19% among those under the age of 35.
• NDP support is much more consistent across age groups, with millennials (21%), Gen X (25%) and Boomers (19%) all nearly equally as likely to support the NDP.

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between September 19 to 22, 2016. For this survey, a sample of 800 Ontarians from Ipsos' online panel was interviewed online. Weighting160was then160employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval.160 In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/ - 4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Ontarian adults been polled.

The "pre throne speech" poll was conducted Sep 7-9, 2016. For this survey, a sample of 800 Ontarians from Ipsos' online panel was interviewed online. Weighting160was then160employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval.160 In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/ - 4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Ontarian adults been polled.

The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. For the merged data of 1600 Ontarians, the poll is considered accurate to within +/- 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Ontarian adults been polled.160

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
CEO
(416) 324-2001
Ipsos Public Affairs
[email protected]

About Ipsos

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