Tories Breaking Out Of Stalemate

Toronto, ON - As we approach the end of a year which saw virtually no movement in the level of support for Canada's federal political parties, a new Ipsos Reid poll has revealed that, after being stuck at roughly 35% support for the better part of the year, Stephen Harper and the Conservatives are breaking out of the stalemate.

If an election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives led by Prime Minister Stephen Harper would receive 39% of the vote among decided voters, up 4 points from one month ago. The Conservatives haven't been this high in the polls since the fall of both 2008 and 2009. By comparison, Michael Ignatieff and the Liberal Party are trailing by 10 points and would receive 29% of vote support, unchanged from last month.

Jack Layton and the NDP would garner 12% of the vote (down 4 points), while 9% of Canadians would vote for Elizabeth May and the Green Party (down 2 points). The Bloc would receive 10% of the vote, nationally, and 6% of Canadians remain undecided.

With Western Canada ostensibly locked up for the Conservatives, the key to a Harper majority lies in Ontario and Quebec.

• In Ontario, things are continuing to look good for the Conservatives (39%) as they maintain their lead over the Liberals (34%). Whether this translates into picking up more seats in the GTA - a necessity for a majority government - is to be seen. The NDP (14%) and Green Party (11%) are well behind in this seat-rich province.
• In Quebec, the Bloc (41%) has improved its position in the polls (up 6 points), likely a function of voter backlash with the Charest Liberal Government. (An Ipsos poll released this week in Quebec shows the Parti Quebecois (30%) well ahead of Premier Charest's Liberals (17%) and the Action Democratique du Quebec at 13%). The Tories (21%) are back in the game in Quebec and are now statistically tied with the Liberals (22%) for second place, having steadily improved from a low-point of 12% support in June of this year. The Green (8%) Party and the NDP (7%) trail behind.
• Turmoil in both the Liberal and New Democratic provincial parties of British Columbia appears to have translated into fluctuations for the federal parties within that province as well. The Conservatives (44%) have solidified their lead in British Columbia (up 10 points), while the Liberals (26%) have also modestly improved their showing (up 3 points). On the other hand, the NDP at 18% has slid 6 points, while the Green Party at 12% has tumbled 5 points since last month's poll.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Postmedia News and Global Television from December 7-9, 2010. For the survey, a representative randomly-selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Canada been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
CEO
Ipsos Public Affairs
(416) 324-2001
[email protected]

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

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