Transfer of Hong Kong to China

Attentiveness to Events

• The vast majority of British Columbians, both in the general population (95%), and in Greater Vancouver's Chinese community (97%) say they are aware that Hong Kong will be under Chinese authority on June 30th of this year. (Table 1)
• The Chinese community in Greater Vancouver is paying close attention to what is going on in Hong Kong as the transfer date approaches; fully 76 percent are following events closely, 23 percent are paying "very close" attention. (Table 2)
• Chinese residents show themselves to be somewhat more attentive to events than other British Columbians of whom 62 percent say they are closely watching activities in Hong Kong; 14 percent are paying "very close" attention.
• *Among those in the Chinese community following the events in Hong Kong more closely are: men, 35-54 years of age, university educated, people who have lived in Canada 10 years or less, and residents who have considered moving back to their place of birth.

Perceived Impact of Transfer on People of Hong Kong

• The Greater Vancouver Chinese community is somewhat divided in its views of how the transfer will effect the people of Hong Kong. A slim majority of survey respondents (52%) believe the transfer of Hong Kong to China will prove to be a "good thing" for Hong Kong residents; 19 percent believe it will be a "very good" thing. (Table 3)
• These include a greater proportion of: men, 55 years of age or more, lower household income, China-born residents, have lived in Canada for more than 10 years, and people who are following the events closely.
• On the other hand, a sizeable minority of almost four in ten Chinese residents in Greater Vancouver (39%) believe the transfer will be a "bad thing" for the people of Hong Kong, though only 9 percent hold this view strongly.
• In the BC population as a whole, the views are significantly different. A substantial majority of people (70%) we surveyed in the province as a whole in March of this year thought the transfer would prove to be a "bad thing" for the people of Hong Kong. A full 29 percent said it would be a "very bad" thing.
  
  By comparison, only 18 percent of British Columbians took the more positive view that Hong Kong's transfer to China would be a "good thing" for the people of that Pacific island.

Reasons for Positive Outlook for People of Hong Kong

• Probing to find out the reasons behind the more positive outlook, it is clear that British Columbians as a whole, and Greater Vancouver's Chinese community both view the transfer as an opportunity for the people of Hong Kong to re-establish their cultural ties with China; it is a return to the cultural homeland after many years under foreign rule. (Table 4)
• This is more prominent a view among the Chinese community, however, where fully 91 percent of those surveyed mentioned that Hong Kong was "originally part of China" (71%), and that it "will now be ruled by its own people" (20%). This view tends to be shared more strongly by China born residents who have lived in Canada for more than 10 years, and who are somewhat older (55 years+).
• Other reasons given focus on the economic benefits for Hong Kong (28%): "China is a bigger market" (21%); the transfer will "help China's economy" (7%).While these same issues also come up the BC population as a whole, the weight given the cultural ties argument is less significant; 35 percent of British Columbians see the transfer as a way for the people of Hong Kong to return to their cultural home, compared to 71 percent of the Chinese community.Economic arguments receive the same consideration as with the Chinese community; 28 percent see positive economic repercussions for the people of Hong Kong.

Reasons for Negative Outlook for People of Hong Kong

• Greater Vancouver Chinese residents who hold more negative views of the transfer and its impact on the people of Hong Kong, are more worried about the political ramifications in the post-British era. Topping the list of reasons, we note people talk most often about China's "poor human rights" record (39% mentions), the fact that "China is a communist country" (36%), and the possible loss of independence and freedom for the Hong Kong people (25%). (Table 5)
  
  These more political reasons are shared most strongly by Greater Vancouver's Chinese youth, people who are university educated, those born in Hong Kong, and individuals who have been in Canada for more than 10 years.
  
  Mention is also made of economic consequences due to "disruptions in business and the economy" (15%).
  
  Further, people talk more generally of the difficulties inherent in the mixing of two different systems and lifestyles (13%).
• British Columbians as a whole who view the transfer negatively share some of the same concerns, but are not as sensitive to the political ramifications: 20 percent talk of the loss of freedom and independence, 13 percent mention that China's communist system will be a negative thing for the people of Hong Kong, and only 8 percent mention China's poor human rights record.

  Their sensitivities to the economic difficulties which might arise (17% mentions), and two the clashing of two systems (25%) are somewhat similar. However, people in BC as a whole are much more likely than Chinese residents in the Lower Mainland to talk of different lifestyles (13% vs. 1%).

Impact of Transfer on Personal Life

• The vast majority of Greater Vancouver Chinese residents (66%) believe that the transfer of Hong Kong to China will have no noticeable impact on themselves or their family. (Table 6)
• Of those Chinese residents who did feel the transfer would affect their personal life, the consensus view, by a two-to-one margin (22% negative vs. 11% positive), is that the impact would be largely negative.
• This is particularly true for people who were born in Hong Kong, individuals who have lived in Canada for less than 5 years, and are closely following the events.

Reasons for Negative Impact on Personal Life

• When asked why they believe the transfer will have a negative impact on their personal life, most people talk of their family, losing touch, and the need to move permanently to Canada. A full 32 percent mention they fear for the safety of their families in Hong Kong; 19 percent say they do not want to move to Canada, but will likely have to; 11 percent say they will no longer be able to visit people in Hong Kong which will mean losing touch with friends and relatives. (Table 8)
• There is much less emphasis given to economic reasons: more competition for jobs (13% mentions), possible job loss (7%), the property values of property they have in BC, Hong Kong, and China will decrease (7%), and housing prices in BC will increase (3%).On a more political level, some mention the loss of freedom (5%) and a fear for the future of Taiwan (4%).

Reasons for Positive Impact on Personal Life

• Those who see a more positive outcome for themselves are optimistic, because they believe the transfer will have a positive impact on the economies of BC (12%), Hong Kong (18%), and China (15%). Another 10 percent mention increases in property values, and 8 percent talk of being able to get more work in Hong Kong. (Table 7)
  
  Seventeen percent of Lower Mainland Chinese residents say the transfer will affect them positively because it will allow more immigration, and 10 percent believe they will have a better lifestyle.

Impact of Transfer on British Columbia

• Chinese residents in the Greater Vancouver area are generally optimistic about the impact the transfer will have on British Columbia as a whole. A full third (33%) believe the transfer will have a positive impact on BC, while 21 percent foresee more negative repercussions. Almost four in ten - 39 percent - believe the transfer will not have any real impact on the province one way or the other. (Table 9)
• By comparison, the BC population as a whole is much more ambiguous in its assessment. Back in March of this year, 41 percent of British Columbians said the transfer of Hong Kong to China would have a positive impact on the province, but almost the same number (39%) saw the transfer having more negative consequences for British Columbia.

Reasons for Positive Impact on BC

• When asked to explain their optimism, respondents from the Chinese community in Greater Vancouver focussed quite strongly on the potential economic benefits of Hong Kong coming under Chinese rule: more investment in BC (47% mentions), improvements in the BC economy as a whole (46%), more exports from BC to China (7%), and more job creation (2%). (Table 10)
• Mention is also made of improved BC - Asia relations (20%), including: BC's position will be improved in Asia-Pacific (11%), closer ties to Asia (7%), and a greater say for BC in Asian affairs (2%).
• British Columbians who are confident that their province will benefit from Hong Kong's transfer to China base their optimism on some of the same reasons, but to a lesser degree. From an economic standpoint, 36 percent see the potential for more investment, 33 percent talk of an improved provincial economy overall, and 8 percent mention job creation.
• On BC's relation with the Asia-Pacific, 16 percent of British Columbians say this is a major reason for being optimistic about the transfer of Hong Kong to China.

Reasons for Negative Impact on BC

• Among those who share a more pessimistic outlook about how Hong Kong's transfer to China will affect British Columbia, the vast majority of residents of Greater Vancouver's Chinese community also talk about one single issue - the economy; 64 percent believe BC's economy will suffer, 9 percent fear that foreign investment will be reduced, 6 percent mention jobs will be lost, and 3 percent think foreign trade will be reduced. (Table 11)
• Immigration also surfaces as a potential negative impact on BC, but there are opposing views; 19 percent of Chinese residents believe that "people will move back to Hong Kong", while another 14 percent say there will be too many immigrants moving to BC. A small number of people - only 3 percent - worry about increased racial tensions.
• For British Columbians as a whole, the potential negative consequences for BC of Hong Kong's transfer to China also reside in the economic realm; 19 percent believe foreign trade will be reduced, 16 percent talk of reduced foreign investment, and 10 percent simply see an overall downturn in BC's economy.
• However, the largest single worry of British Columbians is that too many immigrants will move to BC; 26 percent of people in the province mentioned this as a negative impact of the transfer of Hong Kong to China.

Impact of Transfer on Intentions of Returning to Place of Birth

• The vast majority of residents of Greater Vancouver's Chinese community (79%) say they have never considered moving back to their place of birth. One in five (21%) indicate the thought has crossed their minds, however. (Table 12)
• Among those most likely to have given the idea some consideration are those born in Taiwan (42%); they are more than twice as likely as others to have considered moving back to their birthplace. Only 20 percent of those born in Hong Kong and 13 percent of people from mainland China have thought of returning.
• The transfer of Hong Kong to China has had significantly different effects on the likelihood of Chinese residents ever returning to their place of birth.
• For those considering the move back, 41 percent say the transfer now makes it more likely they will return; only 13 percent are now more cautious about leaving Canada.
• By comparison, among those who have never considered returning to their place of birth, the transfer of Hong Kong to China has merely hardened their resolve to remain in Canada. Fully 47 percent feel it is now less likely they would return to their place of birth; 35 percent say it is "much less likely". Far fewer - only 8 percent say they are now more likely to return.
• Hong Kong born Chinese residents of Greater Vancouver are those most affected by the transfer; 54 percent say it is less likely they would consider moving back now that Hong Kong will be under Chinese authority. Somewhat fewer China born residents (43%) are as opposed to the idea.

Following are results of two BC Angus Reid Polls on reactions of the BC population to the impending transfer of Hong Kong to China. In March of 1997, we polled a random sample of 600 British Columbians. Then, more recently, between June 9th and 15th, 1997 we conducted a similar survey among a representative cross-section of 400 British Columbians of Chinese descent in the Greater Vancouver area. Interviews for the Chinese community survey were conducted in Cantonese (75%), Mandarin (15%), and English (10%)

With a 600 sample, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the numbers are within ±4.0 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire population been polled; the margin of error increases to ±4.9 for the Chinese community survey. All results in both surveys were weighted by age and gender to reflect the actual distribution of residents across these two variables.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900