Voting Intentions in Quebec and the Popularity of Leaders

Montreal -- The following are the highlights of a SRC/Angus Reid Group Survey released on Tuesday, December 09, 1997. The survey of 1,000 Quebec adults aged 18 and over was conducted between November 28th and December 6th.

The information obtained is statistically representative of the geographic and demographic distribution of the Quebec population.

With a sampling this size, the results obtained are representative of the Quebec population ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

PROVINCIAL VOTING INTENTIONS IN QUEBEC

The Parti Quйbйcois would have won the election

If a provincial election had been held in Quebec in early December, the Parti Quйbйcois would have received 46% of votes, as compared to 37% for the provincial Liberal Party, 10% for the P.A.D., and 2% for the Equality Party. Such a lead would normally be enough to guarantee a majority government for the PQ.

With Jean Charest as leader, the Liberals would have won the election

If Daniel Johnson were to leave his position as leader of the Liberal Party, and be replaced by Federal PC Leader Jean Charest, the Liberal Party of Quebec would receive 47% of the vote, well ahead of the Parti Quйbйcois (33%), the P.A.D. (12%) and the Equality Party (6%).

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS IN QUEBEC

The Bloc Quйbйcois (37%) and the federal Liberal Party (38%) enjoy nearly identical levels of support among decided voters in Quйbec. The federal Progressive Conservative Party (13%) is the only other federal party with significant levels of support in the province. The Reform party (1%) and NDP (4%) garner very little support among decided voters.

POPULARITY OF PARTY LEADERS

Provincial Leaders

When Quebecers are asked to rate the performance of each party leader, Premier Lucien Bouchard receives a favourable rating from 58% of respondents (16% strongly approve and 43% moderately approve), while Daniel Johnson, leader of the Official Opposition, receives a favourable rating from 39% of respondents (5% strongly approve and 33% moderately approve) Mario Dumont, leader of the P.A.D., receives a favorable rating from 62% of Quebecers (17% strongly approve and 45% moderately approve).

Federal Leaders

Among the leaders of federal parties with seats in Quйbec, Progressive Conservative Leader Jean Charest receives the highest approval rating at 61% (20% strongly approve and 42% moderately approve). Prime Minister Jean Chrйtien receives approval from 51% of Quebecers (9% strongly approve and 42% moderately approve). Gilles Duceppe, leader of the Bloc Quebecois receives a favorable rating of 38% from respondents (6% strongly approve and 32% moderately approve).

PROMOTING AND DEFENDING QUEBEC INTERESTS

When asked "which political party would be most likely to promote the interests of Quebec in Ottawa, 45% of Quebecers identify the Bloc Quйbйcois, while 23% say it would be the Liberals, and 13% say it would be the Conservatives. The NDP and the Reform Party are each mentioned by only 1% of Quebecers. Nine percent of respondents feel that none of the parties would be likely to promote Quebec interests. Similarly, 54% of respondents felt that the Bloc Quйbйcois are most likely to defend the interests of Quйbec in Ottawa, while 20% believe the Liberals would be most likely to defend the interests of Quebec. Ten percent feel the Conservatives are most likley to fulfil this role. The NDP and Reform are each mentioned by 1% of Quebecers in this context, and 7% of Quebecers feel that none of the parties would be most likely able defend Quebec's interests in Ottawa.

CONSTITUTIONAL FATIGUE

More than 6 out of 10 Quebecers (61%) believe that the PQ government should not hold a referendum on sovereignty if re-elected for a second mandate, while 36% of Quebecers are of the alternative view. (See Chart 6, in the downloadable version of this release Download .pdf file) A total of 86% of respondents agreed with the statement: "I am tired of all the talk about referendums and the Constitution" - with 14% being in the alternative.

SOVEREIGNTY-PARTNERSHIP AND INDEPENDENCE

When asked whether they would vote YES or NO in a sovereignty referendum if it "were accompanied by a partnership with the rest of Canada," 55% of the respondents said that they would vote YES, while 45% said they would vote NO. This formulation of the question, however, identifies partnership as a reality, and not as "a possibility". The YES support is proportionally higher among respondents under the age of 55, and among men.

Asked for their opinion on Quebec independence, 62% of Quebecers said that they would vote NO in a referendum on independence, while 38% said that they would vote YES. Proportionally speaking, those aged younger than 35 were the most in favor of independence.

THE CALGARY ACCORD

Two statements in the survey addressed the Calgary Accord. The first asked whether the respondent was in favor of the provinces and the Federal Government recognizing the unique character of Quebec, while affirming the principle of equality between the provinces; the second question asked if the respondent believed it possible for this type of reform to take place.

A total of 80% of respondents said that it would be preferable for the provinces and the Federal Government to recognize the unique character of Quebec, while affirming the principle of equality between the provinces, while 19% felt that this would not be a desirable option.

Seven in ten (69%) respondents were in agreement with the following statement: "It is possible to reform the Canadian Federation based on two principles (unique character and equality between the provinces)", while 27% disagreed.

ECONOMIC FUTURE

Nearly 2 out of 3 respondents (64%) agreed that "Quebec's economic future would be more promising if Quebec stayed in Canada", while 30% of respondents disagreed.

SOVEREIGNTY VOTE IMPACT

A slightly lower percentage (58%) agreed with the statement "voting YES to sovereignty could create a real crisis in Quebec", while 39% disagreed.

This Sociйtй Radio-Canada / Angus Reid Group survey of 1,000 Quebec adults aged 18 and over was conducted between November 28th and December 6th.

The information obtained is statistically representative of the geographic and demographic distribution of the Quebec population.

With a sampling this size, the results obtained are representative of the Quebec population ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Christian Bourque
Senior Research Manager
Angus Reid Group
(514) 877-5550

Bob Richardson
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900