Biggest jump in economic optimism in 30 years of MORI (now Ipsos) polling

When the world recession first began to bite, all the talk was about loss of confidence in people's minds and that confidence had to be regained for the economy to be turned around. People's decisions to buy cars, move house, redecorate, get a new fridge and take holidays depended on their confidence that we were soon coming out of the recession that faced Britain, and their part of the world. The way we measure confidence is to ask a cross-section of the British electorate, nation-wide, whether or not they think that the economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next twelve months. In the first quarter of 2008, in both February and March, and again in May, the percentage of the public who thought that over the next year the economy would improve hit rock bottom. Just 7% of the public thought then that it would improve, the lowest score in the past 30 years, since MORI first began monthly tracking of British economic optimism. This month, 43% of the public in the monthly Ipsos telephone survey of 1,013 people nationwide, fieldwork between 21-23 August, said they thought the economy was coming out of the recession or would be by this time next year, up 37 points, six times as many people as in the first quarter of last year. In national population terms, just three million adults were optimistic about the economy, now nearly twenty million are confident that there are indeed `green shoots' and that the country has passed the economic crisis and things are on the up. There are now 43% who say the economy will improve compared with 27% who believe it will get worse gives a net `Economic Optimism Index' of +16%. However, this national average disguises much. Anticipation of the economy improving is largely among middle class southerners. Contrary to the general belief when the recession started that because of the imminent failure of the banks and the City of London and the South-East those area would be hit hardest, that is not the view of the British public now. The biggest jump month on month, comparing the August figures with July's, there are 6% of people in Scotland and the North of England and in Wales and the Midlands who expect the economy to improve over the coming year. Down South, across the Southeast especially, the increase this month against July is more than double at +15%, within Greater London it is +21%. The most improvement is among older people: around one in four people over 65 believe the economy will improve over the next year. Only one in twenty of those under 35 are optimistic. It can not be easy for the new graduates and others just coming into the job market; only 2% more young people believe the economy will improve as think it will get worse.

• Ipsos Political Monitor - August 2009

Sir Robert Worcester is the Founder of MORI