British public more likely to think Labour has the best policies on the issues that matter most to them

• Public more likely to think Labour has better policies than the Conservatives on the NHS and cost of living.
• 4 in 10 think the Conservatives are having a bad campaign so far.

The first Ipsos Campaign Tracker of the 2024 General Election asks the public which issues will be most important in deciding their vote and which party has the best policies on them. We also explore favourability towards Keir Starmer, Rishi Sunak and the leading national parties in Britain and ask who the public thinks will win (and who they want to). Finally, we ask whether the leading parties have had a good or bad campaign in the previous week. The Campaign Tracker will be asked weekly during the election, with data for the first wave this week being compared to our most recent Ipsos Political Pulse in April.

What are the key issues?

• 58% think things in Britain are heading in the wrong direction (-4 pts from April). 20% say right direction (+4). This is the first time the proportion saying ‘wrong direction’ has been below 60% since March 2023.
• When asked for the key issues that are most important in influencing their vote this General Election, the top four issues the public choose are the NHS (64%), inflation / cost of living (55%), managing the economy (43%) and immigration (42%.)
   

• Different issues matter to different groups of people. For 2019 Conservative voters the NHS and immigration are joint first (both 66%) but for 2019 Labour voters the NHS (72%) and cost of living (60%) are the key issues.

The top three issues by age are:

• 18-34s: cost of living (58%), NHS (56%) and housing (38%).
• 35-54s: NHS (61%), cost of living (54%) and managing the economy (40%).
• 55+: NHS (72%), cost of living (54%) and immigration (53%).
   

Which party has the best policies on the key issues?

• Labour are seen as having the best policies rather than the Conservatives on the NHS and reducing the cost of living by a 23 and 11 point margin respectively. They also lead on managing the economy but by a smaller margin of 6 points.
• On the subject of immigration, it is notable that whilst Labour technically leads by 7 points, only 37% say that either party has the best policies. Overall 22% choose Labour, 15% Conservatives, 13% Reform UK, 20% say none of these, 19% say don’t know and the rest choose other smaller parties.
   

Favourability towards Rishi Sunak, Keir Starmer and the main GB parties

• Attitudes to Rishi Sunak, Keir Starmer and the main GB political parties are so far unchanged when compared to the previous Ipsos Political Pulse in April.
• 23% of Britons hold a favourable opinion towards Rishi Sunak (+2pts) and 57% unfavourable (+1). 31% hold a favourable opinion towards Keir Starmer (+3) and 41% unfavourable (no change).
• Meanwhile, 22% are favourable towards the Conservative Party (+3) and 57% unfavourable (+1). 39% are favourable towards the Labour Party (+5) and 38% unfavourable (no change). Figures for other parties can be found in the chart below. 

Who the public expect (and want) to win?

• 44% expect a Labour Majority government after the next election and 23% a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party. 8% expect a Conservative majority government and 7% a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party. 4% expect another result and 7% don’t know.
• In terms of preferred outcome, 39% would prefer there to be a Labour Majority after the General Election, 8% a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party. 20% prefer a Conservative Majority government and 6% a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party. 14% say some other result and 14% say don’t know.

Who has had a good or bad campaign in the past week?

• The public are more likely to think the Labour Party have had a good campaign (33%) rather than bad campaign (19%) so far. 4 in 10 think the Conservatives have had a bad campaign so far.
   

Keiran Pedley, UK Director of Politics at Ipsos said:

At this early stage of the General Election campaign, there is no sign of any significant shift in public sentiment. The Conservatives remain unpopular, with a clear majority unfavourable towards the party and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Meanwhile, Labour lead to varying degrees on the issues the public say will influence their vote most – the NHS and cost of living in particular – with the public also expecting some kind of Labour victory in July too. Of course, there are more than five weeks to go and clearly public sentiment can change in that time. Time will tell if it does.

Notes to Editors: Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,118 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone between the 24th to 27th May 2024. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.