Ipsos Political Monitor July 2012

 Coalition health check: not united, not dealing with economy and unlikely to last to 2015 say the public in Ipsos poll

Labour increases its lead as Conservative vote softens

CON 31 (n/c); LAB 44 (+4); LIB DEM 12 (+2)

The public view the Coalition as much less united than in 2011, according to the July Ipsos Political Monitor, and only 28% think it is dealing with the economic crisis effectively.

The public image of the Coalition has taken a substantial hit over the last year:

• 26% say the Coalition is working as a united team, down from 43% in April 2011.  Sixty-six percent say it is not united (including 58% of both Liberal Democrat and Conservative voters)

• Four in ten (39%) say the Coalition is providing stable government; this is down from 53% in April 2011. Conservative and Liberal Democrats are though more likely to think that the Coalition is providing stable government (59% of Conservatives and 61% of Liberal Democrats)

• Three in ten (28%) say the Coalition is dealing with the economic crisis effectively. This is half of the 59% that expected the Coalition to deal with the crisis in May 2010. Conservatives are more likely to think that it is dealing with the economy effectively (by 56% to 43% of Liberal Democrats).

• 34% think the Coalition is able to react quickly in a crisis while 55% think it cannot, this is almost an exact reversal of April 2011 when 53% said it was able to and 38% said it was not.

• Half (52%) of the public do not think the Coalition is likely to last until 2015 while 40% think it will. Liberal Democrats are more positive that the Coalition will survive (57% compared to 47% of Conservatives - though even 37% of Lab supporters think it will last.)

Satisfaction with the government has fallen to its lowest point since the formation of the Coalition in 2010. A quarter (26%) are satisfied while around seven in ten (68%) are dissatisfied with the way the government is running the country. Satisfaction among Conservative supporters has fallen since January from 77% satisfied to just 51% now.

Satisfaction with David Cameron has also fallen.  Among the public as a whole 33% are satisfied and 60% are dissatisfied (giving net rating of -27).  Thirty percent of Conservative voters are unhappy – the highest we have recorded for the Prime Minister among his own supporters.

Satisfaction with Ed Miliband has also fallen over the month with 33% satisfied and 51% dissatisfied; his net rating of -18 is down 5 points from June. Satisfaction with Nick Clegg is largely unchanged over the month with 26% satisfied and 64% dissatisfied with his performance.

The Labour party has taken its highest lead in the polls since Gordon Brown’s brief honeymoon in September 2007. However, it appears this lead is as a result of the Conservative vote “softening”. Since June, Conservatives are becoming less certain to vote at the next election, falling from 67% to 57%, while Labour has risen from 60% to 63% and the Liberal Democrats’ are also down from 59% to 52%.

Head of Political Research at Ipsos, Gideon Skinner, said:

 

“The arguments between the coalition partners are taking their toll, even among the parties’ own voters – who see it as stable but disunited, which may be why only half of them think it will survive to 2015.  Alongside this, we’ve seen a softening of Conservative support as they become less certain to vote, although the underlying picture is similar to the last couple of months.”

 

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