Police and Crime Commissioners: one year on

One year on from the inaugural elections for Police and Crime Commissioners and new Ipsos research shows that the majority of the public remain unaware and less than engaged with these publicly accountable heads of local police forces. Should this be taken as an indication of a continued lack of progress with regards embedding the role of PCCs within the realm of public consciousness? Maybe so, but we must beware jumping to quick conclusions. At this same point in time, we are witnessing continuing declines in crime rates, historically low levels of concern about crime and significantly fewer of us bemoaning anti-social behaviour, all on the back of the worst financial recession in decades. Perhaps it is time to re-think expectations around the degree of traction that a PCC might have on public opinion; the landscape is changing and the repercussions could see crime and justice issues taking a backseat when it comes to electioneering in the run in to 2015 – both for prospective PCCs and MPs. The results from our new polling shows that knowledge of Police and Crime Commissioners is low in areas with PCCs; only 8 per cent of people are able to name their Police and Crime Commissioner. The majority (60 per cent) know nothing at all about PCCs, including some 26 per cent who have never heard of them. Despite much of the negativity that surrounded the turnout last year, the polling immediately prior to the elections showed that high numbers were aware they were happening (83% ). Of course, this did not transfer through to turnout, which stood at 15%. Within our polling, 25% claim that they voted in 2012, with the most common reason cited for not voting being lack of awareness of the elections – in contrast to the awareness figures recorded at the time. One in five (20%) go on to say they would certainly vote in the next election in 2015. How surprised and/or concerned should anyone be by these figures? Is it simply a case of timings; after all, a variety of indicators suggest that most of us do not appear to have a lot to moan about when it comes to law and order issues, so why would we expect a majority to engage or become enthused about those in charge? Our regular issues index shows that public concern about crime is at its lowest level for 20 years. Not since 1992 have so few of us ranked crime/law and order issues amongst the top concerns facing Britain.

Of course this measure is relative and may simply reflect crime being offset by concerns around the economy and employment, as well as perennial issues of political and public debate such as immigration. However, the general theme of diminishing concern is backed up by findings from the Crime Survey of England and Wales which show continuing declines in crime rates and a steady drop in the numbers of people across the country highlighting anti-social behaviour as problematic in their local areas. When asked directly in our polling, the majority (61%) felt that crime levels in their area had stayed the same over the last 12 months. These perceptions of ‘stagnation’ with regards local crime would have been heralded as hugely successful a few years back when the most common response to such questions was to cite a deterioration, but such findings are now becoming more of the norm. To what extent do the public attribute any success to local police and, specifically, to PCCs? Our polling shows that one year on from the election, more than half of respondents are unable to provide an opinion on the performance of their Police and Crime Commissioner due to lack of familiarity. When asked whether Police and Crime Commissioners had made police more accountable to the general public (the factor often cited for the introduction of PCCs) only two in every five people were able to express an opinion either way, with 17 per cent agreeing that PCCs had made police more accountable, and 24 per cent who thought that they had not made police more accountable. With regards policing more generally, the Crime Survey of England and Wales has shown a gradual, yet significant, improvement in most measures relating to ratings of local policing in recent years. So with a backdrop of economic hardship, cuts to policing budgets and high-profile incidents with the potential to damage credibility (not only ‘Plebgate’, but also incidents involving PCCs personally), then in some ways we may regard the lack of direct negativity in our polling findings as a success. Indeed, there are also signs that most people have a broad sense of the role of PCCs; for instance 50% knew that PCCs are responsible for deciding how to spend the policing budget, and 45% knew they were responsible for holding the police to account on behalf of the public. The issue of public engagement with crime and justice lies deeper than PCCs and it is time to re-evaluate what we might expect PCCs to achieve. In the event of a perceived increase in crime levels, a shift in crime types, a series of headline-grabbing high profile crimes, or outright failure of a PCC then no doubt levels of familiarity and likely engagement in the next round of elections could rise. But if the current – more positive – trajectory continues then it is likely that crime and disorder will remain less prominent in the public consciousness and less ripe an issue for national politicians to prioritise in the run in to the 2015 General Election. This has significant implications for how we should set expectations and judge the success of PCCs moving forwards.