Report Card

Across the country as I write, schoolchildren are receiving the examination results that assess their performance over the last couple of years in each of the subjects. (Well, except in Scotland, but that is a different story.) It seems an appropriate point at which to draw up a similar report card for the government. In which policy areas does the public feel it has passed, and in which has it failed? Or rather, since "value added" seems to be the preferred benchmark these days, in which policy areas has it improved its standing since it was elected, and in which has it lost out? And, for those issues where the Opposition has scored hits, has the result merely been to damage Labour credibility or also to convince the electorate that the Conservatives (or, indeed, Liberal Democrats) might do a better job?

MORI's poll for The Times at the end of August, conducted a few days after Gordon Brown's spending increase announcements, offers us the chance to make this assessment. We asked the public which of the parties they thought had the best policies on each of 16 key issues, an identical question to one which we asked on 8 April 1997, three weeks before the last election. The tables shows each of the results, ranked by the "swing" from Labour to Conservative (the net percentage of respondents that have shifted from favouring one party to the other on each issue), beginning with those where the government has performed most impressively.

Q I am going to read out a list of problems facing Britain today, and for each one, I would like you to tell me whether you think the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrat or some other party has the best policy on each.

* Percentages may add to less than 100% as respondents may name other parties

The biggest swing has been on Northern Ireland, with Labour gaining 23 points and the Conservatives losing 12, but that probably simply reflects that despite some policy differences Northern Ireland is for the most part not a party issue. The public are generally supportive of progress in the peace process and the majority of those who commit themselves to an opinion therefore back the Prime Minister's policy, as was also the case for John Major in 1997. It is also instructive that in another MORI poll over approximately the same period, for the Mail on Sunday [Spin & Spending], 46% said they were satisfied with the job Peter Mandelson is doing as Northern Ireland Secretary and only 32% dissatisfied, one of the better ministerial approval ratings, even though when Mr Mandelson is mentioned without reference to his job in Northern Ireland he tends to perform poorly in polls.

The next two policy issues in the table are far more significant. It is plain that the government has made strides in establishing its economic credibility. Even as late as the 1997 election, a residual belief at least among the core of their own supporters in the Tories' economic competence remained one of the party's strongest cards, and they led Labour; now that lead has gone, and Mr Hague's mostly inexperienced and little-known team may face a long haul to re-establish it. The pattern on unemployment is very similar, although it is an issue where Labour has traditionally had a lead in any case; that lead has been consolidated.

These are the only issues on which Labour has made real gains. In one sense, gains might seem superfluous when compared with an election in which Labour in any case won by one of the most sweeping landslides in history, but it must not be forgotten that much of the momentum for that victory came from people voting against the Tories, not for New Labour. For such voters the government is essentially on probation, to be given the benefit of the doubt while it shows what it can do but facing an eventual loss of support if it does not win over the agnostics. There are still a lot of "don't knows" on a number of very significant policies. Economic competence is important, of course, but is by no means top of the list of issues that voters say will determine their vote - when we asked which of the 16 issues would be "very important" in helping respondents decide which party to vote for, 35% named unemployment (ranked equal fifth) and 29% managing the economy (seventh); but 67% will be influenced by healthcare, 54% by law and order and 52% by education.

Education is one of the issues in the middle of the table, and is one on which the government has performed moderately well. Labour's ranking is up 3 points, and the Tories' down a statistically insignificant single point, suggesting that at least this is not an issue where severe disillusionment has set in among those who had high hopes for the government. Similarly, David Blunkett topped the poll in the MORI/Mail on Sunday approval ratings for the job he is doing at the Department of Education and Employment, and when we last asked the public to judge the government's record on education (in June - link to Mail on Sunday state of the parties poll), 36% thought they had improved the standard of education while 43% thought they had not, by no means an overwhelmingly good rating but better than that on any of the other key policy areas.

Now move on to the areas where the Tories have made some impact. The biggest, by far, has been on pensions, though mot of the movement has been in Labour's ratings (down 12) rather than in that of the Conservatives (up only 3). Plainly the opposition attack on the derisory pension rise announced in the Spring hit home; indeed, it may prove to be the biggest mistake the government has made this year. Quite apart from the overall swing, it angers a particularly dangerous portion of the electorate, and has been accompanied by a swing to the Conservatives, against the general trend, among older voters. (Grey Power commentary). Although as the table shows Labour still retains a narrow lead on pensions among the whole population, among the third of the public who say it will be important to their vote the Tories have a tiny lead, 23% to 22% - but 45% of those who might vote on the basis of pensions policy don't think any party has a best policy, or don't know. The negative message has worked, but the Tories haven't got their positive message across.

On law and order and health care, the other two big issues, the government has lost a little ground - the Tories have gained on law and order, where they took the initiative earlier this year, but remain as unpopular as ever as potential custodians of the NHS. Nevertheless, even with Mr Brown's spending plans fresh in the public mind, fewer electors were confident in Labour's health policies than they had been just before the election.

Perhaps the most striking point in the table, though, is that in five of the six issues where the Tories have made a net gain, the don't knows have increased - voters may be less well inclined towards the government, but the Conservatives seem a long way from being seen as a credible alternative.

The summer recess may well be the last period of calm that we have to assess where the country stands politically before the campaign for the next general election is launched in earnest. These are the initial dispositions, the result of more than three years' manoeuvring. Soon, the battle will begin.