Signs of rising confidence in House Price Outlook following post-Brexit dip
The latest Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker (HMCT) shows a modest increase in the House Price Outlook (HPO), up from +42 in October 2016 to +44 in March 2017.
The latest Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker (HMCT) shows a modest increase in the House Price Outlook (HPO), up from +42 in October 2016 to +44 in March 2017. Following a 14 percentage point drop in the HPO in October 2016 the current survey shows the first signs that confidence in the housing market is rising, nine months after the Brexit vote.
This figure is driven by a one percentage point decrease in expectations that average UK property prices will be lower in twelve months’ time (down from 15% in October 2016) and a corresponding one percentage point increase in expectations that average UK prices will be higher in a years’ time (up from 57%).
Buying sentiment* has continued a steady decline, dropping by three percentage-points from +17 in October 2016, and is at the lowest point since September 2014, whereas the selling sentiment** shows an eight percentage-point increase (up from +9 in October 2016). This rise in selling sentiment follows a 22-point drop between March and October 2016, thus still remaining below pre-Brexit levels.
The survey was the 27th undertaken by Ipsos for Halifax since its inception in April 2011. Over that time the House Price Outlook has been positive on all but one occasion. And while buying sentiment has changed comparatively little, selling sentiment has risen as confidence in property price rises has grown. Since April 2011, the average UK house price has risen from £160,785 (April 2011) to 219,949 (February 2017) according to Halifax.
Technical note
Ipsos interviewed 1,958 British adults aged 16+ face-to-face, between 24 March and 3 April 2017. Data have been weighted to the known population profile.
* Buying sentiment - the figure of those who indicate ‘good time to buy a property’ minus those who indicate ‘bad time to buy a property’
** Selling sentiment - the figure of those who indicate ‘good time to sell a property’ minus those who indicate ‘bad time to sell a property’
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