Worcester's Weblog

MORI research director Bobby Duffy, standing in for Sir Robert Worcester today, analyses the opinion polls.

Labour has targeted a number of major policies on deprived areas -- and local residents seem to be noticing. That's good for Labour.

But the electoral value of this success is likely to be limited, as these groups are among the least likely to vote. That's bad for Labour.

You can tell a lot about what people think from where they live. MORI studies have found that by knowing only the level of 'deprivation' in an area (measured by an index that takes account of things like levels of crime and employment, indicators of income and health) residents' satisfaction with the area as a place to live can be accurately predicted, but also satisfaction with the council and health services.

In all the cases we've looked at we find that the higher the level of deprivation the lower satisfaction is with public services.

The one exception to this is satisfaction with the government -- which is actually much higher in the most (top 10 per cent) deprived areas -- 41 per cent satisfied compared with 32 per cent overall.

This is largely because those living in deprived areas are less well-off and from lower social classes, groups that are traditionally much more likely to be supporters of the Labour Party -- things may be bad in these areas, but for many the feeling is they could be worse under the Conservatives.

The current government has also targeted these areas through key programmes such as the New Deal for Communities, which gives around 16350m each to 39 of the most deprived areas in the country to deal with the serious problems they face.

MORI has conducted two rounds of surveys in these areas -- and the latest figures, recently released, show a marked improvement in resident attitudes, particularly on key aspects such as the physical environment and fear of crime.

But this also illustrates one of the major problems facing Labour. Only 42 per cent of those in the most deprived areas say they are certain to vote, compared with 62 per cent of those in affluent areas (this 'upper-middle England' group is most active across a range of socio-political indicators).

We can also see the 'softness' of the Labour vote when the proportions that say they'll vote for each party based on all voters are compared with the proportions based on only those who say they are certain to vote. The Conservative share goes up and Labour share goes down -- that is the case across all areas.

Residents in deprived areas remain a key constituency for all parties. MORI data suggest some ways they might be able to appeal to them.

First, deprived area residents are, on average, much less concerned about foreign affairs, including Europe and Iraq, than those in better off areas. They are more focused on immediate issues, such as unemployment and drug abuse -- but no more concerned about poverty or inequality than other groups.

They are also generally less concerned about race relations and immigration, despite (or, more likely, because of) living in much more diverse areas.

Bobby Duffy is research director at MORI. Sir Robert is in the USA, delivering a lecture at the University of Kansas, but is back on Tuesday.