Worcester's Weblog

MORI chairman Sir Robert Worcester analyses the latest opinion poll data.

MORI's latest poll, for the Financial Times, out today, has Labour on 40% , the Conservatives on 32%, with the Liberal Democrats on 21 per cent among the 59% who say they are certain to vote at an immediate election. This would project, on uniform swing and recognising that the election isn't April 18th to a Labour majority of 138 seats over all other parties.

If only old folks (like me) had the vote, it wouldn't be like that. In fact, our recent poll (15th-18th April among 1,005 electors for the FT), looking only at those 55 and over, who are absolutely certain to vote, Labour has 35%, the Conservatives 42%, and the Liberal Democrats 18%, a Tory lead of 7%.

If only those 55 and over had the vote, the turnout would be in the mid 70s, not under 60, and the Tories would have the most seats in a closely hung Parliament, with Labour likely to lead a minority government supported by the Liberal Democrats and Nationalists, with every prospect of a revolution in British politics, as the price of Lib Dem support would certainly, in this totally implausible scenario, a referendum on proportional voting. For the Tories would have a plurality of just two seats over Labour, picking up 126 seats (to give a total of 292) , while Labour would lose 122 seats (leaving a total of 290) and the Lib Dems having just 36 seats.

Also, at this level of turnout, political power is disproportionately in the hands of older voters. Over the last 16 months, the 55+s have consistently been about twice as likely to vote over last 16 months than 18-34 year olds and according to our sample there are 1.8 times more of the 55+ compared with 18-34s. Since they are 233% more likely to vote, they are 4.2 times more important to the political strategists. Effectively, each of the older voters will have four times the vote power of the younger people.

No wonder the political parties are each trying to outdo the others in their promises to the grey vote in this election.

Older people on balance dislike Tony Blair (37% like him, 52% don't). And the certainly don't like his party's policies, by 33% to 56%. But then they don't much like Michael Howard either. Among those over 55, also 37% say they like him, and fewer, 45% say they don't, but a plurality like the Conservative's policies, by 43% to 39%.

There are three polls out today. MORI, for the Financial Times, NOP for the Independent, and Populus in the Times. The table below gives the results, pretty consistent, and in line with the ICM poll that was published yesterday.