`Yes' continues to make progress as we enter the final stretch
As Alex Salmond and Alistair Darling prepare for the first live television debate of the campaign, Ipsos Scotland's latest poll for STV News shows that `Yes' continues to make some gains while there are signs that more and more people are now making up their minds ahead of September.
As Alex Salmond and Alistair Darling prepare for the first live television debate of the campaign, Ipsos Scotland’s latest poll for STV News shows that ‘Yes’ continues to make some gains while there are signs that more and more people are now making up their minds ahead of September.
Among those who say they are ‘absolutely certain’ to vote in the referendum 54% say they intend to would vote No (unchanged since June), four in ten 40% would vote Yes (up by four percentage points) while 6% are undecided (down by four points). When undecided voters are removed from the figures, 58% of those certain to vote would vote No (down by two points) while 42% would vote Yes (up by two points). While these changes are technically not statistically significant, the direction of travel may prove to be indicative of a closer result than polls indicated prior to these results.
The constitutional debate retains public interest with 81% saying that they are absolutely certain to vote in September (down 1 point from June), while between different age groups nearly nine in ten, 89%, of those aged 55 or over say they are absolutely certain to vote’ compared with six in ten, 59%. of those aged 16-24.
Conducted during the Commonwealth Games, the poll reveals an overwhelming perception of success of Glasgow 2014 among the public. Overall, 96% thought that games were either very successful (67%) or fairly successful (29%).
However, the vast majority of people (89%) reported that the Games will have no impact on how they vote in September although, among those who do think they will have an impact, 7% reported a greater likelihood to vote Yes with 3% saying they were more likely to vote No as a result of the Games.
Mark Diffley, Director at Ipsos Scotland said:
'With 45 days to go until the referendum the Yes campaign will be heartened that it continues to narrow the gap in public opinion. It appears that the gains made by Yes are driven by undecided voters deciding to vote in favour of independence in September. The No campaign will take some comfort that support for the union remains unchanged and that it retains a significant lead with the referendum fast approaching. The Commonwealth Games has proved a complete triumph with the public though it appears to have had little effect on voting intentions in September.’
Technical note
- This presents the topline results from Scotland
- Results are based on a survey of 1,006 respondents (adults aged 16+) conducted by telephone
- Fieldwork dates: 28th July 2014 – 3rd August 2014
- Data are weighted by: age, sex and working status using census data; tenure using Scottish Household Survey data; and public-private sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly Public Sector Employment series data
- Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don’t know” categories
- Results are based on all respondents (1,006) unless otherwise stated
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