Alberta's Conservative Party Leadership Race

Calgary, AB - As the last sleepy days of summer dwindle down, a new Ipsos Reid/Calgary Herald poll shows that the Conservative leadership race is beginning to kick into high gear. Among Albertans, Jim Dinning currently leads the pack of contenders, with 54% saying they have a favourable impression of him. Lyle Oberg places a close second with 48% saying they have a favourable impression of him, and Dave Hancock is now placing a close third, with 44% favourability.

However, when it comes to who Albertans think would do the best job as the next Premier of Alberta, it is a clear two-way race. At 26%, Jim Dinning also places first but, Lyle Oberg is only 5-points behind at 21%. Hancock is a distant third at 6%.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll fielded between August 2 - 13, 2006, and is based on a randomly selected sample of 800 adult Albertans. Results based on a sample size of 800 are considered accurate to within 177 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Albertan population been polled. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Alberta population according to the 2001 Census data.

Jim Dinning (54%) the frontrunner in favourability ratings - Lyle Oberg (48%) in second place with Dave Hancock (44%) gaining momentum

With the summer months behind us and fall just around the corner, the race to replace Ralph Klein as leader of the Progressive Conservatives is moving into high gear. While Conservative party members will decide which candidate will be the new leader of the party once Ralph Klein steps down, each contender's appeal to Albertans as a whole will undoubtedly be on their minds.

When it comes to favourability, former provincial Finance Minister Jim Dinning is leading the pack with 54% of Albertans giving him a favourable rating. This is consistent from June (54%) and this time last year (56%). In all, 13% give a "very favourable" rating, and 41% give a "somewhat favourable" rating.. Lyle Oberg, the former Minister of Infrastructure and Transportation, receives a 48% favourability rating, with 10% "very favourable" and 38% "somewhat favourable." Again, this is consistent with last June's favourability rating (48%) and the ratings he received this time last year (48%). Former Minister of Advanced Education Dave Hancock's favourability (44%, with 4% "very favourable" and 40% "somewhat favourable"), has bounced back to last year's levels (45%) after dropping 6-points in June (39%).. Behind the front runners are former minister of Agriculture, Transportation, and International Relations, Ed Stelmach (34%, with 3% "very favourable" and 31% "somewhat favourable"), current MLA Ted Morton (33% with 4% "very favourable" and 29% "somewhat favourable"), former Minster of Economic Development, Mark Norris (32%, with 2% "very favourable" and 30% "somewhat favourable") and the sole woman on the list of hopefuls, Calgary Bow MLA Alana DeLong (27%, with 3% "very favourable" and 24% "somewhat favourable").

Those more likely to give Jim Dinning a favourable rating include:

• Albertans 35 - 54 years of age (59%) and 55 years of age and older (60%) compared to 18-34 year olds (45%);
• Residents of Calgary (59%) compared to residents of Edmonton (50%) and residents of Northern Alberta (46%);
• Albertans with a university degree (60%) compared to those with less formal education (high school or less 47%); and,
• Albertans who earn between $50,000 and $70,000 annually (65%) and more than $70,000 annually (56%) compared to those who earn between $30,000 and $50,000 annually (52%) and less than $30,000 annually (52%).

Those more likely to give Lyle Oberg a favourable rating include:

• Men (51%) compared to women (44%); and,
• Residents of Northern Alberta (57%) and Southern Alberta (57%) compared to residents of Edmonton (40%).

One-quarter (26%) of Albertans think Dinning would do the best job as the next Premier, but Oberg (21%) hot on his trail

When it comes to who Albertans think would do the best job as the next Premier of Alberta, a slightly different story emerges with a two-way race between Dinning and Oberg in the offing. Jim Dinning places first, with one-quarter (26%) believing he would do the best job as the Premier. This is essentially unchanged (within the margin of error) from last June (29%). Lyle Oberg, hot on Dinning's trail, places second, with two-in-ten (21%) thinking that he would be the best replacement for Ralph Klein, essentially unchanged from last June (22%). Alana DeLong and Dave Hancock are both tied for third place with one-in-twenty (6%, respectively), believing they would do the best job as the next Premier. Ted Morton (5%), Ed Stelmach (4%), and Mark Norris (3%) trail at the bottom of the list. The race, however, is far from over: the poll shows that almost two-in-ten (21%) Albertans have not yet made up their minds who they think would make the best Premier of Alberta - almost as many people that support Dinning, and the same percentage that support Oberg.

• Support for Dinning is higher among 35 to 54 year olds (28%) and older Albertans (33% of those aged 55 and over), those with a university education (31%), and residents of Calgary (35%).
• Oberg support is higher among residents of Southern Alberta (30%).
• Those currently undecided in their preference for who would make the best replacement for Ralph Klein as Premier of Alberta are more likely to be women (25%), and to earn less than $30,000 annually (29%).

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Jamie Duncan
Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
+1.403.294.7385
[email protected]

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