Canadians Support Democrat John Kerry For Next U.S. President

Toronto, ON - With the Democratic National Convention slated to nominate Senator John Kerry as its Presidential standard bearer and Senator John Edwards as his Vice-Presidential running mate on the evening of Thursday July 29th, 2004 for the November U.S. Presidential election campaign, a new Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll released today indicates that a majority of Canadians (60%) would vote for Mr. Kerry for President over incumbent Republican President George W. Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney who would garner the support of only 22% of Canadians.

This is underscored by the findings that while a strong majority of Canadians (73%) agree that they "like and admire Americans, that is, citizens of the United States" only 29% agree with the statement "I like and respect the current administration of George W. Bush ", followed by even fewer (24%) who believe "President George W. Bush deserves to be re-elected for another four years as President of the United States".

The Republican National Convention will take place between August 30th and September 2nd, 2004 in New York City and is expected to affirm Mr. Bush and Mr. Cheney as the Republican ticket for the U.S. elections, which will take place on November 2, 2004.

Half of Canadians (52%) believe "they know what Democrat John Kerry stands for and what he wants to do as President" with a majority who believe he would do a better job "of building relationships with world leaders"(62%). Many Canadians also believe that Mr. Kerry would do a better job at "being a friend to Canada" (56%), "dealing with Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin and his Government"(54%), "helping grow the U.S. economy" (47%) and "making the world a safer place"(46%) than incumbent President George W. Bush. Four in ten (37%) believe Mr. Kerry would do a better job of "keeping America safe from terrorists" than Mr. Bush.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll conducted from July 20th to July 22nd, 2004. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 1773.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

The Majority Of Canadians, If They Could, Would Vote For John Kerry For The Next President of The United States...

If they personally could vote for the next President of the United States, a majority of six in ten Canadians (60%) would vote for Democrat John Kerry and his Vice-Presidential running mate John Edwards compared to only 22% who would vote for incumbent Republican President George W. Bush and his Vice-Presidential running mate Dick Cheney. One in ten Canadians (8%) would vote for "neither" candidate, and 2% would vote for Ralph Nader if they could. The remaining 9% of Canadians "don't know" who they would vote for.

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• Residents of Quebec (69%) are the most likely to say they would vote for Democrat John Kerry if they could, followed by Alberta (60%) and Ontario (60%), British Columbia (58%), Atlantic Canada (51%), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (45%). 183
• Residents of Atlantic Canada (37%) are the most likely to say they would vote for President George W. Bush, followed by residents of Saskatchewan/Manitoba (33%), Alberta (25%), Ontario (22%), British Columbia (21%), and Quebec (13%). 183
• Men are more likely than women to say they would vote for George W. Bush if they could (25% vs. 19%). 183
• Canadians who hold a University degree are significantly more likely than those who have lower levels of education to say they would vote for John Kerry if they could (72% vs. 55%).

A Strong Majority of Canadians Say They Like And Admire Americans...

A strong majority of Canadians (73%) agree that they "like and admire Americans, that is, citizens of the United States of America" (30% "agree very much", 43% "agree somewhat"), while 24% disagree with this statement (17% "disagree somewhat", 7% "disagree very much"). The remaining 3% of Canadians "don't know" if they agree or disagree with this statement.

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• Agreement with the statement "I like and admire Americans, that is, citizens of the United States of America" is highest in Atlantic Canada (89%), followed by Ontario (76%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (75%), Alberta (69%), British Columbia (69%), and Quebec (66%). 183
• Disagreement with the statement is highest in Quebec (31%) followed by Alberta (28%), British Columbia (27%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (25%), Ontario (21%) and Atlantic Canada (9%). 183
• As age rises among Canadians, agreement with this statement also rises (66% among those aged 18-34, 72% among those aged 35-54, and 82% among those aged 55 and over).

But, Two-Thirds Disagree That They Like And Respect The Current Bush Administration...

Two-thirds of Canadians (67%) disagree with the statement "I like and respect the current administration of President George W. Bush" (22% "disagree somewhat", 44% "disagree very much"), while 29% agree with this statement (20% "agree somewhat", 9% "agree very much"). The remaining 4% of Canadians "don't know" if they agree or disagree with this statement.

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• Disagreement with the statement "I like and respect the current administration of President George W. Bush" is highest in British Columbia (70%), followed closely by Quebec (69%), Ontario (68%), Alberta (64%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (63%), and Atlantic Canada (51%). 183
• Agreement with the statement is most likely to come from residents of Atlantic Canada (44%), followed by those from Saskatchewan/Manitoba (37%), Alberta (29%), Quebec (28%), Ontario (26%) and British Columbia (26%). 183
• Those with at least some post-secondary education are significantly more likely than those with a high school education or less to disagree with this statement (73% vs. 54%). 183
• Adult Canadians aged 35 years and over are more likely than adults under the age of 35 to agree with this statement (31% vs. 24%).

And, Seven In Ten Canadians Disagree That Bush Deserves To Be Re-Elected...

As if to underscore the view above, seven in ten Canadians (72%) disagree with the statement "President George W. Bush deserves to be re-elected for another four years as President of the United States" (16% "disagree somewhat", 57% "disagree very much"), while 24% agree with this statement (12% "agree somewhat", 12% "agree very much"). The remaining 4% of Canadians "don't know" if they agree or disagree with this statement.

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• Disagreement with the statement "President George W. Bush deserves to be re-elected for another four years as President of the United States" is highest in Quebec (80%), followed by British Columbia (78%), Ontario (72%), Alberta (70%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (62%), and Atlantic Canada (55%). 183
• Residents in Atlantic Canada (40%) are the most likely to agree with this statement, followed by residents of Saskatchewan/Manitoba (35%), Alberta (25%), Ontario (23%), British Columbia (22%), and Quebec (16%).

Half (52%) Of Canadians Say They Know What John Kerry Stands For...

Half of Canadians (52%) agree with the statement "I know what Democrat John Kerry stands for and what he wants to do as President" (42% "agree somewhat", 11% "agree very much"), while 38% disagree with this statement (27% "disagree somewhat", 12% "disagree very much"). The remaining 10% of Canadians "don't know" if they agree or disagree with this statement.

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• Agreement with the statement "I know what Democrat John Kerry stands for and what he wants to do as President" is highest in Quebec (60%), followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba (54%), British Columbia (52%), Ontario (49%), Atlantic Canada (48%) and Alberta (48%). 183
• Disagreement with this statement is highest in Alberta (44%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (44%), followed by Atlantic Canada (42%), and British Columbia (41%) and Ontario (41%), and Quebec (27%). 183
• Men are more likely than women to agree with the statement "I know what Democrat John Kerry stands for and what he wants to do as President" (56% vs. 49%).

Most Canadians Expect That Kerry Would Do Better Than Bush In Building Relationships With World Leaders, Dealing With Canada...

Canadians were asked how they expect John Kerry would perform, if he becomes President of the United States, in comparison to current President George W. Bush in a number of Presidential capacities.

Six in ten Canadians (62%) believe John Kerry, if he were President, would be better than current President George W. Bush in "building relationships with world leaders", compared with 23% who think he "would do the same job", 7% who think he "would do a worse job", and 9% who "don't know".

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• Agreement that Mr. Kerry would do a "better job" than Mr. Bush, is highest in Alberta (66%), Quebec (63%), Ontario (63%), British Columbia (62%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (58%) and Atlantic Canada (51%). 183
• Those with a University degree are significantly more likely than those with lower levels of education to believe that John Kerry would be better than George W. Bush in "building relationships with world leaders" (74% vs. 56%).

Over half of Canadians (56%) believe John Kerry, if he were President, would be better than current President George W. Bush in "being a friend to Canada", with 30% who believe he "would do the same job", 6% who believe he "would do a worse job", and 9% who "don't know".

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• Agreement that John Kerry would do a better job than current President George W. Bush in "being a friend to Canada" is highest in British Columbia (60%), followed by Ontario (57%), Quebec (55%), Alberta (55%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (49%) and Atlantic Canada (49%). 183
• Those with annual household incomes of $30,000 or more are significantly more likely than those with annual household incomes of less than $30,000 to believe John Kerry would be better than President George W. Bush in "being a friend to Canada (58% vs. 48%).

Half of Canadians (54%) believe John Kerry, if he were President, would do a better than current President George W. Bush in "dealing with Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin", with 28% who believe he "would do the same job", 8% who believe he "would do a worse job", and 10% who "don't know".

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• Agreement that John Kerry would do a better job than current President George W. Bush in "dealing with Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin and his government" is highest in British Columbia (63%), followed closely by Alberta (62%), Quebec (54%), Ontario (53%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (48%), and Atlantic Canada (35%).
• Half of Canadians (47%) believe John Kerry, if he were President, would do a better job than current President George W. Bush in "helping grow the U.S. economy", with 32% who believe he "would do the same job", 9% who believe he "would do a worse job", and 12% who "don't know". 183
• Agreement that John Kerry would do a better job than President George W. Bush in "helping grow the U.S. economy" is highest in Quebec (54%), followed by Ontario (47%) and Alberta (47%), British Columbia (42%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (39%), and Atlantic Canada (39%).

Half of Canadians (46%) believe John Kerry if he were President, would do better than current President George W. Bush in "making the world a safer place", with 34% who believe he would do the same, 10% who believe he "would do a worse job", and 9% who "don't know".

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• Agreement that John Kerry would do better than George W. Bush in "making the world a safer place" is highest in Quebec (52%), followed by Alberta (50%), Ontario (46%) and British Columbia (46%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (42%), and Atlantic Canada (30%).

Four in ten Canadians (37%) believe John Kerry, if he were President, would do a better job than current President George W. Bush in "keeping America safe from terrorists", with 40% who believe he "would do the same job", 14% who believe he "would do a worse job", and 8% who "don't know".

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• Agreement that John Kerry would do better than George W. Bush in "keeping America safe from terrorists" is highest in British Columbia (43%) and Quebec (43%), followed by Alberta (37%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (34%) and Ontario (34%), and Atlantic Canada (30%). 183
• Those with annual household incomes of less than $30,000 are more likely than those with incomes of $30,000 or more to believe that John Kerry would do better than George W. Bush in "keeping America safe from terrorists" (44% vs. 35%).

Please open the attached PDF to view the factum and detailed tables.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900