On The Eve Of Secretary Of State Condoleezza Rice's Visit To Ottawa, Canadians Assess Her Perceived Motives And The Softwood Lumber Trade Dispute

Toronto, ON - With Prime Minister Paul Martin set to play host to U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice as she makes her first official visit to Canada, a new CanWest News Service/Global News Ipsos Reid poll shows that most Canadians (60%) think her visit is really just a "public relations exercise" and not a genuine effort on behalf of the United States' government to show that they care about trade and energy issues affecting our two countries (33% believe it shows a genuine effort to resolve these issues).

As context to the survey respondents were told that since May 2002, the United States has imposed about $4 billion in tariffs on softwood lumber from Canada after producers there complained Canadian provinces charge companies below-market rates to harvest government-owned forests. In August, a North American Free Trade agreement panel ruled that the tariffs imposed by the United States violate the laws of the trade agreement between the two countries. But the United States is refusing to pay the tariffs back to Canadian companies affected and recently Prime Minister Paul Martin hinted to Americans in his speech to the Economic Club of New York that if the decision of the panel is not honoured and the money not repaid by the US government, Canada may start restricting oil and gas shipments to the United States and instead start providing it to other world market countries like China and India.

In support of Mr. Martin's speech:

• Three in four (77%) Canadians indicate that Canada should restrict energy exports to the United States if the government there does not abide by the panel's ruling; and
• 78% agree "the Canadian government should actively look for other markets like India and China for our softwood lumber and energy exports even though government officials in the United States say it could further damage the trade relationship between our two countries".

Further, eight in ten (81%) disagree with the statement that "the U.S. is our best friend and a very secure market for our goods, and we should let them keep the $4 billion and move on to other issues" (59% strongly disagree).

But despite the hard-line Canadians take when considering the trade panel's ruling, they are dead split when it comes to accepting the U.S. government's calls to the negotiating table. Half (48%) believe that, despite the ruling, Canada should sit down at the negotiating table and work something out for the sake of the two countries' broader relationship. The other half (48%) feels that the Canadian government should refuse to negotiate and if the United States does not comply with the ruling we should take retaliatory trade actions against them even if it means damages to the overall relationship between our two countries.

Meanwhile, when Canadians are asked to consider Canada's relationship with their neighbour to the south: 35% think Canada should have " closer more friendly ties with the U.S." (35%, -4 points from 39% in April 2004), 31% think there should be "no change to the relationship as it exist at all" (-1 point), and 31% think Canada should "have a more distant, more independent relationship with the U.S." (+4 points).

Seventy-two percent agree that "I value and respect the United States and its Citizens - it's just that I disagree fundamentally with their government" (48% strongly agree). Agreement with this statement is essentially unchanged from a November 2004 survey (70% agreed at that time).

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest/Global and fielded from October 18th to October 20th 2005. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1001 adult Canadians were interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within 1773.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

Please open attached files to view full press release and detailed tables.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos-Reid
416.324.2900
[email protected]

Ipsos
Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals. Ipsos helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and responses of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world.

Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media. They measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos member companies offer expertise in advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research, as well as forecasting, modeling, and consulting. Ipsos has a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies. The company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded since 1999. In 2004, Ipsos generated global revenues of e 605.6 million ($752.8 million U.S.).

Visit www.ipsos.com to learn more about Ipsos offerings and capabilities.