Federal Liberals (47%) at Lowest Level Since 2000 Election - But Lead Still Comfortable with What Would be A Sweeping Majority

Toronto, ONTARIO - According to an Ipsos-Reid/Globe and Mail/CTV poll released tonight, the Federal Liberals (47%, down 2 points since November 2001) remain the most popular party in the country, but are at their lowest level of support since the November 2000 election. The Liberals remain comfortable in their choice among the electorate as the Progressive Conservatives (16%) drop three points since November 2001, but remain in second spot ahead of their rivals on the right wing, the Canadian Alliance (12%, down 1 point). These numbers would give the Liberals a sweeping majority.

One-in-ten (10%, up 1 point) Canadians express support for the New Democratic Party. While in Quebec, support for the Bloc Quebecois (10% nationally) stands at 39%. This is an increase of four points. However, the Bloc still trail the Liberals (46% in Quebec) by 7 points within the province.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/Globe and Mail/CTV poll conducted between February 19th and 21st, 2002. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1996 Census data.

With a slight two-point decline since November 2001, the Liberals (47%) remain the most popular party in the country. However, the Liberals are now at their lowest level of support since the November 2000 election when their electoral support stood at 41%. (Their highest level of support since the election was recorded last September when their support stood at 51%.)

• Regionally, the Liberals are most popular party in five of the six regions of the country. They receive their highest level of support in Atlantic Canada (57%; up 19 points since November), and Ontario (53%; down 5 points), followed by Quebec (46%), British Columbia (42%), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (41%). In Alberta (31%), they trail the Alliance by three points.
• Canadians from the highest household incomes group (50%) are more likely than their counterparts in the middle (46%) or lower (45%) household income groups to express support for the Liberal Party.
• Younger (49%) Canadians are more likely to express support for the Liberals than those in the next oldest age group (45%). Older (47%) Canadians reflect the Canadian average.

Support for the Progressive Conservatives (16%) drops three points since November 2001, but PC's remain in second spot ahead of their rivals on the right wing, the Canadian Alliance.

• Support for the Conservatives is strongest in Atlantic Canada (28%), and Alberta (27%), followed by Ontario (20%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (15%), and British Columbia (11%). Quebec (7%) remains the Conservatives weakest area of support.
• Canadians from the highest (19%) and middle (16%) household income groups are more likely than those in the lowest (13%) household income group to express support for the Conservatives.
• Older Canadians (23%) are more likely than middle aged (17%) or younger (10%) Canadians to support the Tories.

Support for the Canadian Alliance declines slightly to 12% of decided voters in the country.

• Regionally, the Alliance are strongest in the west, where they the most popular party in Alberta (34%) and are in second spot in British Columbia (26%). Their popular support decreases as you move east; Saskatchewan/Manitoba (18%), Ontario (10%), Quebec (1%) and Atlantic Canada (2%).
• As with the Tories, support for the Alliance, is strongest among voters from the highest (15%) and middle (13%) household income groups, while less so with those from the lowest (7%) household income groups.

Support for the NDP, remains at one-in-ten (10%, up 1 point) Canadians.

• Residents of Saskatchewan/Manitoba (19%) are more likely than those from other regions to express support for the NDP, followed by British Columbia (13%), Ontario (12%), Atlantic Canada (7%), and Quebec (6%). The NDP receive their lowest level of support from Albertans (4%).
• Canadians from the lowest household income group (17%) are more likely to express support for the NDP, than those in the middle (8%) or highest (5%) household income groups.

While in Quebec, support for the Bloc Quebecois (10% nationally) stand at 39%. This is an increase of four points since November 2001. However, the Bloc still trail the Liberals (46% in Quebec) by 7 points in the province.

To view the complete release and tables, please download the attached PDF files.

-30-
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker
President and COO
Public Affairs, North America
Ipsos-Reid
(416) 324-2900