Federal Political Scene - Late August 2000

Support for the Alliance Stalls (22%) as Liberal Support (46%) Edges Up - Tories (10%) and NDP (10%) Remain Unchanged

30 August 2000

At 53%, the Percentage of Canadians Who Say that Healthcare is the Most Important Issue Has Increased 4 Points Since Early August

Toronto, Ontario -- The results of an Angus Reid/globeandmail.com/CTV poll reveal that support for the Federal Liberals has edged up 3 points since Early August and they continue to have the highest support among Canadians. If an election were held tomorrow, 46 percent of decided voters would support the Liberals. Meanwhile support for the Canadian Alliance (22%) has stalled (down 3 points since Early August) while support for the PCs (10%) and NDP (10%) remains unchanged at one in ten Canadians. Healthcare (53%) has nudged up 4 points as the top issue on Canadians' minds.

These are the findings of an Angus Reid/globeandmail.com/CTV poll conducted between August 17th and August 24th, 2000. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,500 adult Canadians. The results are accurate to within 177 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1996 Census data.

Support for the Alliance Stalls (22%) as Liberal Support (46%) Edges Up - Tories (10%) and NDP (10%) Remain Unchanged

If a federal election were held tomorrow, the Liberals would receive 46 percent support among decided voters. This represents a shift of support away from the Alliance (down 3 points since Early August) towards the Liberals (up 3 points since Early August) and a widening of the gap between the Alliance and the Liberals (24 points). The percentage support for each party is listed below:

Liberals - 46%
Canadian Alliance - 22%
PC - 10%
NDP - 10%
BQ - 10%
Other - 2%

In the wake of disparaging comments about Atlantic Canadians made by Alliance official John Mykytyshyn, the Liberals have picked up 9 points in the region since Early August (from 42% to 51%) and the PCs have picked up 10 points (from 21% to 31%). Meanwhile Alliance support has fallen 8 points (from 15% to 7%) and NDP support has fallen 11 points (from 22% to 11%).

The Liberals continue to have a stranglehold on the important electoral battleground of Ontario (57%), while the Alliance is holding steady with the support of one in five (20%) Ontarians. The PCs continue in third place at 12% and the NDP is in fourth at 8%. The Grits are also holding steady in Quйbec (39%) and are currently tied with the Bloc Quйbecois (39%). Meanwhile, the Alliance (8%), the NDP (7%) and the PCs (6%) have the support of under one in ten Quйbecers.

The Alliance (36%) remains ahead in Manitoba and Saskatchewan but the Liberals (29%) and the NDP (26%) are not far behind.

In Alberta, Liberal support has increased 13 points (from 22% to 35%) since Early August and while support for the Alliance in Alberta remains strong, it has dropped 10 points (from 59% to 49%).

In BC, support for the Alliance (39%) is down 5 points but is within the margin of error while Liberal support is unchanged at 37%.

At 53%, the Percentage of Canadians Who Say that Healthcare is the Most Important Issue Has Increased 4 Points Since Early August

Healthcare has been at the top of the issue agenda since July 1999 and as of Late August 2000 a majority (53%) of Canadians believe that healthcare is the issue which they feel should receive the greatest attention from Canada's leaders. Although education is still a distant second, it has risen 5 points on the issue agenda (from 19% to 24%) since Early August.

Residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (63%), Atlantic Canadians (60%), and Albertans (57%) are most likely to say that healthcare is the most important issue while Ontarians (50%), British Columbians (51%) and Quйbecers (51%) are least likely.
Women (60%) are more likely than men (45%) to place healthcare at the top of the issue agenda.
Similarly, older Canadians (62%) are more likely than middle aged (53%) and younger Canadians (45%) to mention healthcare as the most important issue.

The top 5 issues on Canadians' minds are: