Labour Peace Pays Dividends For BC Liberals

Vancouver, BC - As of June 20, the British Columbia provincial government and unionized employees had reached settlement on 116 of 137 agreements that expire by June 30, with these agreements covering 82% of all public sector employees. Now, a new Ipsos Reid poll shows the BC Liberals (51%, up 8 points) well out in front of the NDP (35%, down 5 points) in decided voter support, with the greatest increase in Liberal support coming from union households (44% supporting Liberals, up 14 points).

Gordon Campbell's approval rating as Premier is also on the rise, with 52% of British Columbians saying they approve of his performance, an increase of 8 points since March. This is Gordon Campbell's second highest approval rating as Premier, beaten out only by a poll taken in the months following the election landslide of 2001 (70% approval in September 2001).

At 53%, Carole James has a similar approval rating as the Premier. However, her approval rating as NDP and Opposition Leader has fallen 4 points in the last three months (57% in March) and 16 points from one year ago (69% in June 2005).

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid telephone poll conducted between June 7 and June 11, 2006. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 800 adult British Columbians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of BC been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to the 2001 Census data.

BC Liberals (51%, up 8 points) Open 16-Point Gap Over NDP (35%, down 5 points) on Rising Support from Union Households

The BC Liberals have opened up a substantial lead over the NDP in the battle for voter support in British Columbia. The BC Liberals currently have the support of 51% of the province's decided voters, an increase of 8 points since March. The NDP stands at 35% support, down 5 points in the last three months. The Green Party is a distant third choice with the support of one-in-ten (10%, down 2 points) decided voters. These results exclude the 12% of British Columbians who are undecided or express no preference.

Decided Vote Tracking

While BC Liberal support is up in all regions and with all demographic groups, the largest rise in their support is from union households. The BC Liberals (44%, up 14 points) and NDP (42%, down 10 points) are now effectively tied with this segment. This is a dramatic change from three prior waves of Ipsos Reid polling that all showed the Liberals trailing the NDP by more than 20 points among this segment (Mar 2006 - 30% Lib vs. 52% NDP; Dec 2005 - 28% Lib vs. 54% NDP; Sep 2005 - 31% Lib vs. 56% NDP).

The BC Liberals continue to do better in the Lower Mainland than in the rest of BC. The Liberals have a 23-point lead in the Lower Mainland (56% Lib vs. 33% NDP) compared with a 7-point lead in the rest of BC (44% Lib vs. 37% NDP).

• The BC Liberals also do better with men (56% vs. 47% women) and higher income households (63% vs. 48% middle, 35% lower).
• The NDP do better with women (38% vs. 32% men) and lower income households (47% vs. 39% middle, 25% higher).

Gordon Campbell's Approval (52%, up 8 points) at Highest Point Since 2001; Carole James' Approval (53%, down 4 points) Continues to Slip

A slight majority (52%) of British Columbians say they approve of the job Gordon Campbell is doing as Premier (16% "strongly", 36% "moderately"). This is an 8-point increase in his approval from March and the second highest approval rating he has ever achieved. The only time Campbell's approval has been higher was in September 2001 (70%) during the honeymoon period in the months following the BC Liberal's landslide election victory.

More than four-in-ten (44%, down 8 points) British Columbians disapprove of Campbell's performance (27% "strongly", 18% "moderately"). His "strong" disapprovals have fallen 10 points from 37% in March.

• Campbell's approval rating is higher in the Lower Mainland (57% vs. 45% rest of BC), with men (56% vs. 48% women), non-union residents (56% vs. 42% union) and higher income households (65% vs. 39% lower, 46% middle).

A slight majority (53%) of British Columbians also approve of the job Carole James is doing as NDP and Official Opposition leader (12% "strongly", 41% "moderately"). James' disapproval rating currently stands at 29% (12% "strongly", 17% "moderately").

James' current approval rating of 53% has slipped 4 points from March (57%) and 16 points from her immediate post-election position (69% in June 2005).

• James' approval rating is higher with union residents (59% vs. 50% non-union).

Leader Approval Tracking

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Kyle Braid
Vice-President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
604.257.3200
[email protected]

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