Prime Minister Chrйtien and the liberals maintain significant lead

Despite lower overall approval, Prime Minister Chrйtien and the liberals maintain significant lead in latest federal standings

REFORM MOVES TO SECOND PLACE DESPITE A 4 POINT DIP IN MANNING'S OVERALL APPROVAL RATING

This Angus Reid Group/CTV/Globe and Mail poll was conducted by telephone between November 9th and November 15th, 1998 among a representative cross-section of 1,515 Canadian adults.

These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1996 Census data.

With a national sample of 1,515, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within +2.5 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

REFORM MOVES TO SECOND PLACE DESPITE A 4 POINT DIP IN MANNING'S OVERALL APPROVAL RATING

Despite a recent drop in overall approval, Prime Minister Chrйtien and the Liberal Party maintain a significant lead in the polls. The Reform Party moves to second place despite a 4 point dip in Opposition and Reform Leader Preston Manning's overall approval rating. A National Angus Reid Poll conducted among 1,515 Canadians between November 9th and November 15th updated the federal party standings. Among the poll's highlights:

• The Liberals currently hold 50 percent of the decided vote. Up marginally from this fall, it is still significantly higher than the 38 percent of the popular vote the Liberals received on Election Day in June 1997.
• The Reform Party reclaims second place with 16% of the popular vote (up 2 points since the end of October), while the Conservative Party slips back to third with 14% (down 3 points since last month); both the Reform and PC parties sit at levels lower than the 19% each, held at the time of the 1997 election. The NDP is at 10% (down 1 point since the end of October) and the Bloc Quйbecois is also 10% (38% in Quйbec). (A total of 6% of polled Canadians were undecided/refused or said they would not vote in a federal election).
• Despite Reform edging into second place in the federal standings, Reform leader Preston Manning's personal approval rating has dropped four points to 37% (41% in June 1998). NDP leader Alexa McDonough holds at a 41% approval rating (same as June 1998). Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe's approval in Quйbec is up 3 points to 43% (40% in June).

Across the major regions, the federal party standings are as follows:

• In British Columbia, the Liberals continue to lead Reform (41% versus 35%); however, the gap is closing, with Reform gaining 6 percentage points since late October. The New Democrats are third in BC with 12%, just ahead of the Conservatives (9%).
• In Alberta, the Reform party remains on top with 40% of the decided vote, down 4 points since September. The Liberals have gained 4 points since late October holding on to second place with 34%, and the Conservatives lose 5 points, putting them at 20% of popular support. The Liberals maintain a significant lead in Manitoba/Saskatchewan with support from 45% of decided voters. The Reform party drops another point (7 points since September) to 20%, just one point above the NDP at 19%. The Conservatives held their ground at 16%, just one point down since the end of October.
• The Liberals remain well in front of their opponents in Ontario (55% of the decided vote). The Conservatives hold second place with 19%, the Reform follows with 13% while the NDP pulls in just behind at 12%.
• In Quйbec, the Liberals have gained substantial support, moving from 46% in October to 52% this month. The Bloc drops 2 points and sits at 38% of decided voters.
• Support for the Liberals at 55% in Atlantic Canada, has rebounded to the levels enjoyed in June (53%). Support for the Liberals had fallen as low as 37% during the intervening months. Though the Conservatives have dropped 11 points since late October (from 32% to 21% this month), they still hold on to second just ahead of the NDP at 17%.

Future voting intentions:

When asked which party they would vote for if the current federal leaders* were running in the next election expected to be in 2001 or 2002, 38% of Canadians would support Prime Minister Chrйtien and the Liberals (the same level of popular support held by the Liberals during the last election). In a distant second, Joe Clark and the Conservatives tallied 21%, followed by Preston Manning's Reform Party with 13% of the popular vote. Finally, Alexa McDonough and the NDP scored 11% of the vote and Gilles Duceppe's Bloc Quйbecois were cited by 9% nationally (34% in Quйbec).

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
Executive Vice-President
(416) 324-2900

Christian Bourque
Directeur de recherche Affaires
Groupe Angus Reid
(514) 877-5550