The Pulse Of Politics And Par

Ottawa, ON - In a week where the House of Commons voted on the Throne Speech and federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty met with retailers and, `standing up for consumers', announced that Canadians `deserve to pay a price [for goods] that reflects the strength of the Canadian Dollar', it appears that the Conservatives are finding it hard to break through the elusive 40% majority-territory barrier.

Since last week, the Conservatives have dropped one point nationally and now sit at 39% support of Canadian decided voters, but they still maintain a twelve-point lead over the Liberals at 27% support. The NDP has rebounded three points and now sits at 17% support, while the Green Party holds steady at 8% support, nationally.

In Quebec, the Bloc leads with the support of 34% of Quebecers (9% nationally), which represents a decrease of 2 points within Quebec since last week, while the Conservatives are not far behind at 30% support (an increase of 4 points in Quebec). The Liberals have the support of just 16% of Quebecers (decrease of 3 points), and the NDP trails at 13% support (increase of 1 point). The Green Party has the support of 7% of Quebecers (unchanged).

In the two nights following Minster Flaherty's announcement, Canadians were asked how they feel about the strength of the Canadian Dollar and how that reality should affect the prices Canadians pay at retailers. In this regard, six in ten (57%) Canadians believe that `it will take some time for prices to fall in line with those in the United States as a result of the time lag between when retailers order their goods and when consumers buy these products, and so consumers should be patient and shop around for the best prices'.

On the other hand, four in ten (42%) Canadians more closely identify with the thought that ` in light of the strong dollar, retailers and distributors should immediately drop their prices so that Canadians are paying similar prices for similar products on either side of the border, even if it means that Canadian retailers could lose money because they bought the products some time ago when the American dollar was higher in value.

However, it appears that a majority of Canadians are sympathetic to the retail industry and understand that there might be some increased costs associated with doing business in Canada. In fact, six in ten (60%) Canadians either `strongly' (19%) or `somewhat agree' (41%) that `due to things like increased packaging costs, translation, transportation and other costs, even with a higher Canadian Dollar, similar products in Canada that can be found in the United States will likely be more expensive anyways'. Four in ten (38%) Canadians, though, would `strongly' (18%) or `somewhat disagree' (21%) with this sentiment.

But when it comes to meddling with the natural market price of goods in Canada, only a slim majority (51%) either `strongly' (18%) or `somewhat agree' (33%) that `currencies between Canada and the United States go up and down from time to time so we should just leave the price of things alone and the market will work it out eventually.' However, nearly one half (47%) of Canadians are not so optimistic, and either `strongly' (27%) or `somewhat disagree' (20%) that the price of things should be left alone for the market to work out itself.

As a possible remedy for the fluctuations in currencies, six in ten (59%) Canadians `strongly' (32%) or `somewhat agree' (28%) that `if a product has a US price and a Canadians price on it, Canadian shoppers should be allowed to pay the lower of the two, even though these products have been bought months ago and the retailer could lose money'. Four in ten (40%) Canadians, though, either `strongly' (17%) or `somewhat' (23%) agree that this should be the case.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News and fielded from Oct 23 -25, 2007. For the Vote intention questions, a representative randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data. * The Canadian Dollar questions were fielded on Oct 24 and Oct 25 to a sample of 673 adult Canadians, which yields a margin of error of +/- 3.8%, 19 times out of 20.

Significant Regional Swings...

• In Quebec the Conservatives continue to come on strong, increasing from 26% support last week to 30% support this week. The Bloc, however , has decreased from 36% to 34% since last week.
• In Ontario, the race tightens. The Tories have dropped from 42% to 37% within this seat-rich province, while the Liberals are only two points behind at 35% support, an increase of 1 point since last week.
• In British Columbia, the Conservatives have increased by 8 points since last week and now sit at 40% support, while the Liberals have decreased by 1 point and now have the support of 25% of British Columbians. The NDP has gone from 22% support to 16% in the last week.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416-509-8460
[email protected]

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