Rob Ford's Road to Re-Election Long and Bumpy as
Prospects for another Victory look Bleak

Toronto, ON - While the next municipal election is still a year away, Mayor Ford's road to re-election looks long and bumpy and his prospects for re-election look bleak, according to a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for CTV News/CP24/Newstalk 1010 Radio. Ipsos Reid tested four scenarios with various candidates, declared or likely, to see how Rob Ford's support stacks up against the competition. Rob Ford fails to win - or come close - in any of the scenarios, and is bested by Karen Stintz, Olivia Chow and John Tory.

Scenario 1

In the first scenario - a three-way race - Karen Stintz (52%), current chair of the TTC, cruises to victory over Mayor Rob Ford (33%) and former Councillor David Soknacki (14%).

Examining the vote among the 58% of Torontonians who say that `nothing short of an unforeseen emergency could stop me from getting to the voting booth and casting my vote', the voter support figures don't change the story: Karen Stintz (55%, up 3 points), Rob Ford (32%, down 1 point), and David Soknacki (14%, unchanged).

Scenario 2

In the second scenario, which adds former businessman and politician John Tory to the mix, John Tory (41%) bests Karen Stintz (30%), while Rob Ford (22%) and David Soknacki (7%) lag behind.

Among the 58% of Torontonians who say they're certain to vote, John Tory strengthens (45%, up 4 points), Stintz is flat (30%, unchanged), and both Ford (20%, down 2 points) and Soknacki (5%, down 2 points) soften.

Scenario 3

In the third scenario, where John Tory is replaced by current federal NDP MP Olivia Chow - wife of the late Jack Layton - Olivia Chow (44%) easily beats Rob Ford (28%), Karen Stintz (22%) and David Soknacki (7%).

Among the 58% of Torontonians who say they're certain to vote, the differences are marginal: Olivia Chow (45%, up 1 point), Rob Ford (29%, up 1 point), Karen Stintz (20%, down 2 points), David Soknacki (6%, down 1 point).

Scenario 4

In the fourth scenario - the tightest of them all--John Tory and Olivia Chow all face off against Ford, Stintz and Soknacki. The results are much closer than in the other scenarios with Olivia Chow (36%) edging out John Tory (28%), while Rob Ford (20%), Karen Stintz (13%) and David Soknacki (3%) are behind.

Among the 58% of Torontonians who say they're certain to vote, the race at the top tightens: Olivia Chow (37%, up 1 point), John Tory (32%, up 4 points), Rob Ford (19%, down 1 point), Karen Stintz (10%, down 3 points), David Soknacki (2%, down 1 point).

Key Takeaways

In the absence of any other heavyweights or high-profile candidates, Karen Stintz appears to be Mayor Ford's main competition. However, as other candidates join the race - particularly Olivia Chow and to a lesser extent John Tory - Ms. Stintz's chances of electoral victory are dashed.

Mayor Rob Ford does considerably better when he is not splitting the right-wing vote with John Tory. In scenarios where John Tory is included, Rob Ford fares much worse. However, at this stage in the game, Rob Ford is not terribly competitive in any scenario.

While Rob Ford's hopes for re-election are bleak, given these scenarios, it appears that Toronto is still prepared to elect a conservative-leaning candidate. In scenario 2, for example, 63% of the vote went toward a right-leaning candidate - either John Tory or Rob Ford. In the five-candidate scenario, these two men secure 48% of the vote. The future direction of the city will be mostly dictated by the composition of the field of candidates more so than a conscious decision to move the city to the right or the left.

Focus on Ford...

While Rob Ford garners 20% to 33% of the vote, depending on the scenario, it appears that he does have a chance at winning some support back. While six in ten (62%) `agree' (50% strongly/13% somewhat) that `there's no way they would consider voting for Rob Ford to be Toronto's Mayor in next year's election under any circumstance', four in ten (38%) `disagree' (19% strongly/18% somewhat) that they would rule out voting for Ford, suggesting that he has the ability to grow his support to around 38%. Depending on the number of candidates in the election, this could be a competitive proportion of the vote.

Moreover, while many appear to take issue with Rob Ford's problems, they don't necessarily disagree with his policies. Half (47%) of Toronto residents `agree' (18% strongly/29% somewhat) that `Mayor Ford is doing things at City Hall that I want him to keep doing' - a reasonably strong endorsement. However, half (53%) `disagree' (34% strongly/19% somewhat) that he's doing things at City Hall that they want him to be doing.

Awareness of Potential Candidates...

In a municipal election battle, name recognition is key in the absence of political parties. Some of the declared and potential candidates are further along in being recognized than others. Below is the proportion of Torontonians who say they are familiar with each of the possible candidates:

• Rob Ford - 98% familiar (81% very/17% somewhat) vs. 2% not familiar (1% never heard of him/1% not really)
• Olivia Chow - 83% familiar (47% very/36% somewhat) vs. 17% not familiar (7% never heard of her/10% not really)
• John Tory - 76% familiar (38% very/38% somewhat) vs. 24% not familiar (9% never heard of him/15% not really)
• Karen Stintz - 64% familiar (29% very/35% somewhat) vs. 36% not familiar (16% never heard of her/20% not really)
• Norm Kelly - 35% familiar (11% very/25% somewhat) vs. 65% not familiar (29% never heard of him/36% not really)
• David Soknacki - 16% familiar (5% very/11% somewhat) vs. 84% not familiar (46% never heard of him/38% not really)

These are some of the findings of and Ipsos Reid poll conducted between November 8 and 12 on behalf of CTV News/CP24/ Newstalk 1010 Radio. For this survey, a sample of 665 Torontonians was interviewed via Ipsos' online panel. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/-4.3 percentage points had all adults living in Toronto been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416.324.2001
[email protected]

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