ROMANOW'S NDP APPEARS HEADED TOWARDS ANOTHER MAJORITY GOVERNMENT

ROMANOW IS TRUMP CARD AS MAJORITY (54%) SAY HE WOULD MAKE BEST PREMIER

WHILE VOTERS TAKE NDP TO TASK ON TAX CUTTING, CARE FOR FARMERS AND HANDLING OF NURSES STRIKE, PLURALITY (45%) SAYS THEY WOULD PROVIDE BEST OVERALL GOVERNMENT AND LEADS IN BROAD POLICY PLANK APPEAL OVER OTHERS

This Angus Reid Group poll was conducted by telephone between August 30th and September 1st, 1999 among a representative cross-section of 800 residents of Saskatchewan, aged 18 and older. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual population of Saskatchewan according to the 1996 Census data.

With a provincial sample of 800 one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within +3.5 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire population of Saskatchewan been polled. The margin of error will be much larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

As the party leaders prepare for the September 8th debate, a new poll shows that Premier Roy Romanow's NDP are headed towards another majority government with a twelve point lead in the decided vote over its nearest rival, the Saskatchewan Party. It would appear that the NDP's trump card is the Premier, with a full majority (54%) indicating Romanow "would make the best premier", versus only one in six who support his two rivals.

But perhaps the other story in this election is the support garnered by the Saskatchewan Party which is facing its first campaign after being resurrected from the ashes of the former PC Party. The Saskatchewan Party has a strong base of over one third of the decided vote. However, the leader of the Saskatchewan Party is not viewed as "Premier" material in comparison to current Premier Roy Romanow. Further, although the Saskatchewan Party gets top marks as the party which would do the best job in addressing the concerns of farmers and cutting taxes, it would appear that the NDP has a much broader policy platform which has attracted voters.

While the NDP are poised to form the next government, they are not viewed as being particularly effective on a number of key issues - including tax cuts, addressing the concerns of farmers, and the handling of the nurses dispute earlier in the year. But, they lead the other two parties as the party that would do the best job in deficit reduction, education, health care, aboriginal issues and crime, and a plurality (45%) say they would make the "best overall government".

With tax cuts and health care dominating the issue agenda, those who have committed their vote appear ready to head for the polls to mark their ballot - but it is the NDP vote that is the "most certain" to vote where its support is highest in urban areas and the Saskatchewan Party support is highest in rural Saskatchewan. One in five (20%) of those polled remain undecided at this stage in the campaign.

These are the findings from an Angus Reid Group survey of 800 residents of Saskatchewan (aged 18 and older) conducted between August 30th and September 1st, 1999. With a provincial sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the overall results are within +3.5 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Saskatchewan been polled. The margin of error will be much larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

Romanow and the NDP Out In Front as Saskatchewan Heads to the Polls

47% of Decided Voters Would Vote NDP, Followed by Saskatchewan Party at 35% and Liberals at 14%

Among decided voters, the plurality (47%) say they are most likely to support Roy Romanow and the NDP in the Saskatchewan general election that has been called for September 16, 1999. More than one in three (35%) indicate support for the Saskatchewan Party, led by Elwin Hermanson, while one in seven (14%) are planning to vote for Jim Melenchuk and the Liberals.

• The NDP vote is highest among residents of urban Saskatchewan (55%), those aged 55 and older (52%), and respondents who have a university degree (56%).
• Support for the Saskatchewan Party is highest in rural Saskatchewan (41%).
• Among Liberal supports, there is no specific distinction that is statistically significant.

Significantly, one in five (20%) eligible voters in Saskatchewan has not decided how they will vote on September 16th. The undecided figure is highest among women (24%).

Of those who plan to vote NDP, the plurality (45%) say their major reason for supporting the party is that "they've done a good job/have a good track record". Other supporters say the "don't like the other parties" (11%), that the NDP has "reduced the deficit/good financial management" (8%), or that they "have always voted for them".

Saskatchewan Party supporters cite a variety of reasons for supporting the party, but there is no clear consensus. About one in seven say the Saskatchewan Party "will bring taxes down" (16%) or that the province "needs a change in government" (15%). Others say they "dislike the NDP" (11%), that the Saskatchewan Party "has a better agriculture program" (7%), or they just "don't like the other parties/candidates" (6%).

Liberal supporters also provide a variety of reasons for their support. For many, it would appear they support the Liberal party simply because they don't like the alternative: "don't like the other parties/candidates" (13%), "dislike the NDP" (12%). Others say they "support the Liberal platform" (11%), or that they "have always voted Liberal" (11%). Still others say the province "needs a change in government" (7%).

A look at how survey respondents voted in the 1995 provincial election compared to how they plan to vote in 1999 indicates some erosion in NDP support. Seven in ten (71%) 1995 NDP supporters indicate that they will vote NDP again in 1999. Of those who are switching parties, one in six (16%) plan to vote for the Saskatchewan Party, one in ten (9%) say they will vote Liberal, and the remaining four percent say they will vote for "some other party".

54% Say Romanow Would Make the Best Premier

The majority of Saskatchewan residents (54%) say, regardless of which party they may be supporting, Roy Romanow would make the best Premier for Saskatchewan. Elwin Hermanson (15%) and Jim Melenchuk (14%) are virtually tied. The remaining one in five (17%) are undecided.

• Most likely to say Romanow would make the best Premier are men (62%), residents of urban centres (62%), university graduates (65%) and the most affluent (62%).
• The preference for Elwin Hermanson is most notable among those aged 55 and older (18%), those with some post-secondary education (18%), and those with an annual household income of $30-59K (18%).
• Jim Melenchuk's supporters tend to be younger (18% among 18 to 34 years olds) and from lower income households (20%).
• Among NDP supporters, nine in ten (92%) say Romanow would make the best Premier.
• A plurality (46%) of Saskatchewan Party supporters feel their party leader (Hermanson) would make the best Premier, while 26 percent say Romanow is the better man for the job.
• About half (48%) of Liberal Party supporters say Jim Melenchuk would be the best Premier, but three in ten (31%) would prefer Romanow.

NDP Supporters Most Certain About Their Party Choice

Among those who plan to vote NDP in the upcoming election, seven in ten (71%) are either very (45%) or fairly (27%) certain as to which party's candidate they will support on the 16th. At 56 percent, supporters for the Saskatchewan Party are significantly less certain about their choice of party (32% very certain, 24% fairly certain). Liberal supporters indicate a similar level of certainty at 54 percent (30% very certain, 24% fairly certain).

Liberals the Second Choice for Most NDP Supporters

If, for some reason, they were unable to vote for the NDP on September 16th, most NDP supporters (65%) identify the Liberals as their party of second choice. One in five (20%) NDP supporters would vote for the Saskatchewan Party. Among Saskatchewan Party supporters, the Liberals are the second choice for the majority (55%), while one in three (32%) would vote NDP. Liberal supporters [caution: small sample size of 67] are divided on their second choice parties (45% Saskatchewan Party, 44% NDP).

Getting the Vote Out

Two thirds (65%) of NDP supporters say they are absolutely certain that they will go out to vote on election day. Another one in five (19%) say they are very likely to vote. This level of vote intent is similar among Saskatchewan Party (64% absolutely certain, 21% very likely) and Liberal supporters (63% absolutely certain, 21% very likely).

The Issues

Taxes and Health Care Most Important Campaign Issues

At 26 percent and 25 percent, respectively, taxes and health care top the list of important issues for the election campaign. One in seven (14%) say farming/agriculture is the most important campaign issue. Rounding out the issues agenda are education (7%), deficit/government spending (4%), jobs/unemployment (4%), and the economy in general (3%).

• Taxes are of particular concern among men (32%), those aged 35 to 54 (33%), and the most affluent (36% of those with an annual household income of more than $60K).
• Health care is the number one election issue for women (35%), those living in urban centres (27%), and those aged 55 and older (36%).
• Farming/agriculture is most likely to be cited by residents of rural Saskatchewan (20%) as the most important issue for the election campaign.

45% Say NDP Would Provide BEST Overall Government for Saskatchewan

More than four in ten (45%) feel the NDP would provide the best overall government for Saskatchewan. Three in ten (29%) say the best overall government would come from the Saskatchewan Party, while about one in seven (14%) opt for the Liberals. About one in eight (13%) are undecided.

• Most likely to say the NDP would provide best overall government are men (50%), urban dwellers (51%) and university graduates (54%).
• Most likely to say the Saskatchewan Party would provide best overall government are rural residents (35%), and those without any post-secondary education (33%).
• There is specific distinction in terms of who feels the Liberals would provide the best overall government.

39% Say Saskatchewan Party Would Provide WORST Overall Government for Saskatchewan

In spite of the fact that 29 percent say they would provide the best overall government, four in ten (39%) feel the Saskatchewan Party would provide the worst overall government for Saskatchewan. About one in four (26%) say the worst overall government would come from the Liberal Party, while about one in five (22%) opt for the NDP. Again, about one in eight (13%) are undecided.

• Most likely to say the Saskatchewan Party would provide worst overall government are urban dwellers (47%), university graduates (54%) and the most affluent (46%).
• Most likely to say the NDP would provide worst overall government are rural residents (26%) and those without any post-secondary education (26%).
• There is specific distinction in terms of who feels the Liberals would provide the worst overall government.

The majority (54%) of Saskatchewan residents think Roy Romanow and the NDP have done a good job (7% very, 46% somewhat) of making secondary education more accessible. Four in ten, on the other hand, feel they have done a poor job in this regard (26% somewhat, 15% very). These results do not vary significantly along regional or socio-economic lines. Almost Six in Ten (57%) Think NDP Have Done a Poor Job Cutting Taxes

Almost six in ten (57%) feel Romanow and the NDP have done either a very poor (27%) or somewhat poor (30%) job at cutting taxes. Four in ten, on the other hand, feel they have done a good job (7% very good, 34% somewhat).

• Most likely to say the NDP have done a poor job of cutting taxes are residents of rural Saskatchewan (62%), those aged 35 to 54 (61%) and those without any post-secondary education (61%).
• Most likely to say the NDP have done a good job cutting taxes are residents of urban centres (46%), 18 to 34 year olds (46%) and university graduates (47%). Six in Ten (62%) Say NDP Are Not Addressing Concerns of Farmers

More than six in ten (62%) say Roy Romanow and the NDP have done a poor job of addressing the concerns of Saskatchewan's farmers (30% somewhat, 32% very poor). Only 5 percent say the NDP have done a very good job, while another 31 percent say the Party has done a somewhat good job.

• Most likely to say the NDP have done a poor job addressing the concerns of the province's farmers are residents of rural Saskatchewan (67%).
• Most likely to say the NDP have done a good job addressing the concerns of the province's farmers are residents of urban centres (42%) and university graduates (41%).

More than six in ten (63%) say Roy Romanow and the NDP did a poor job of dealing with the province-wide nurses strike that took place in June (27% somewhat, 37% very poor). Only 8 percent say the NDP did a very good job, while another 27 percent say the Party did a somewhat good job of dealing with the strike.

• Most likely to say the NDP did a poor job handling the nurses strike are those aged 35 to 54 (71%), those with some post-secondary education (71%) and the most affluent (72%).
• Most likely to say the NDP did a good job dealing with the strike those aged 55 and older (41%) and the least affluent (40%).

For further information contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900

The Angus Reid Group is Canada's largest and most well known Canadian research company. Established in 1979 by Dr. Angus Reid, the company serves 1200 clients via its six offices in Canada, four offices in the United States and its European office in London, England. With a compliment of 250 full time qualitative and quantitative researchers, the company has annual revenues of $65 Million and is growing at an average rate of 30 percent per year. The employee owned company also operates its own field service entity, Direct Reid, utilizing 450 CATI telephone interviewing stations for north American calling and a 50,000 household consumer panel in Canada.