With Writ Drop on Horizon, Two Front Running Parties Tied:
Harper Conservatives (33%, +5) Close Gap on Mulcair NDP (34%, -1) as Trudeau Liberals Tumble (25%, -4)

Toronto, ON - With the Federal Election Writ drop on the horizon, the Harper Conservatives have reversed their recent slide and have closed the gap with the Mulcair NDP producing a tied vote between the two leading parties, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News.

The poll analysis indicates the Tory rally is largely a function of declining Trudeau Liberal fortunes and the concurrent rising approval rates for the Prime Minister and his government, and not the much vaunted government Universal Child-Care Benefit program which has had minimal impact on voting behavior among families with children.

If an election were held tomorrow, 34% of decided voters would cast their ballot for the NDP led by Thomas Mulcair (down 1 point since June), while 33% would vote for Stephen Harper and the Conservatives (up 5 points). Justin Trudeau and the Liberals have been on a steady slide since February, but the decline has recently become more pronounced - the Grits would receive just 25% of the vote (down 4 points), placing them well back in 3rd. The Bloc led by Gilles Duceppe would receive 5% of the vote nationally (21% in Quebec), while 3% would vote for Elizabeth May's Green Party (up 1 point) and 1% would vote for some other party. It's still anyone's game though as nearly two in ten (18%) Canadians remain undecided with less than 3 months to go until E-Day.

Voters are dividing into two main camps...

Almost two thirds (62%) of Canadians believe that the Thomas Mulcair led NDP presents the best alternative to the Harper Conservative Government compared to just four in ten (38%) who believe the Trudeau Liberals are the best alternative.

This suggests that the anti-Harper vote is beginning to consolidate around the NDP and that the Liberals may not have bottomed out as 11% of current Liberal voters believe that the NDP represents the best alternative. In contrast, just 3% of NDP voters believe the Liberals represent the best alternative to the current government.

This voter dynamic is drafting the Conservatives and the NDP as the premier ballot choices for the election--essentially putting most Canadians into two camps for the upcoming battle as Liberal fortunes drift and become the less likely choice for an alternative to the incumbent government.

Converting approval ratings to vote intention key for Conservatives...

Another factor contributing to the Conservative rally since our last sounding in June is that 44% now `approve' (11% strongly/33% somewhat +3 points) of the performance of the Conservative government led by Prime Minister Harper. The Conservative campaign is likely to focus on converting those who approve of Harper's government and personal performance to vote for him (currently a 12 point difference at the moment) and not the apparent alternative NDP.

Impact of Universal Child-Care Benefit carrot for votes among eligible families: negligible...

The timing of the Universal Child-Care Benefit cheque mail-out couldn't be more obvious on the eve of the election. But despite its much ballyhooed windfall it does not appear to have had much of an impact on the voter intentions of its intended recipients. The poll analysis indicates that among families with children under the age of 18 in the household (those who are entitled to payments), 18% say receiving the benefit even makes them `less likely' to vote for the Harper Conservatives compared to just 14% who say it makes them `more likely' to vote for the Tories. Seven in ten (68%) say receiving this payment has led to `no change' in their vote choice.

The proof is in the voting behavior of families with children under 18 in the household compared to those without. The data reveal that no statistically-significant difference exists in voting behavior based on composition of the household:

• Among families with children under 18 in the household: NDP (34%), Conservative (34%), Liberals (24%), Bloc (6%), Green (2%).
• Among families without children in the household: NDP (34%), Conservative (32%), Liberal (25%), Bloc (5%), Green (4%), other (1%). In other words, the NDP has a two-point lead among households without children and the Conservatives and NDP are exactly tied among households with children. The difference between the two groups is not statistically significant, and so the vote is essentially the same across both groups.

Election won or lost in seat-rich regions...

The election will be won or lost in the key regions of Canada which hold the most seats in the House of Commons, most notably Ontario and Quebec. The current geographic breakdown of the findings are:

• In Ontario, the Conservatives (37%) lead the NDP (32%) and Liberals (28%), while the Greens (2%) and others (1%) trail. This is the tightest race of all the regions of the country.
• In Quebec, the NDP (37%) continues to have a commanding lead over the Liberals (24%), Bloc (21%), Conservatives (15%), Greens (2%) and others (1%).
• In BC, the NDP (39%) is ahead of the Conservatives (32%), Liberals (20%) and Greens (9%) by a healthy margin.
• In Alberta, the Tories (57%) have advanced their lead over the NDP (28%) Liberals (11%), Greens (3%) and others (1%).
• In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Tories (39%) lead the NDP (32%), Liberals (25%) and Greens (3%).
• In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (41%) enjoy the lead, with the NDP (32%), Conservatives (24%) and Greens (3%) trailing.

Voters' second choice gives glimpse into possible vote shifting: NDP has most to gain...

While the election draws closer, the time remaining before E-Day is a lifetime in politics. There remains plenty of time for voters to change their minds, and examining their second-choice preference gives a glimpse into possible vote shifting that could occur in the days ahead.

Second-choice voting is statistically tied between the NDP (23%) and the Liberals (21%), with the Conservative Party (10%) further back. One in ten (11%) would vote for some other party second, and 19% of Quebecers would pick the Bloc as their second choice. One in three (31%) Canadians does not know who they would pick second.

Giving credence to the apparent "alternative party" consolidation noted above, the NDP is by far the most popular second choice for voters of every party, meaning their fortunes are the most likely to rise if the other parties stumble:

• Among Conservative voters, more would choose the NDP (27%) than the Liberals (16%) as their second choice with the Bloc not registering any support (0%).
• Among Liberal voters, the NDP (46%) is by far the more popular second choice over the Tories (16%) and Bloc (6%).
• Among NDP voters, the Liberals (44%) are considerably more popular as the second choice than the Tories (14%) and Bloc (8%)
• Among Bloc voters, the NDP (41%) is the most common second choice, followed by the Grits (13%) and the Tories (10%).

(Click to enlarge image)

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between July 23rd and 27th, 2015 on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 2,000 Canadians (including 1,571 decided voters) from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/ - 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadian adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO
Ipsos Global Public Affairs
(416) 324-2001
[email protected]

About Ipsos in Canada

Ipsos is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos' marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

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