The anti-European UK population is less than in the 1980s

In an interview with LesEchos.fr, Ben Page discusses Euroscepticism in Britain, and how it is influenced by social class and business.

Q. In mainland Europe the British are often seen as Eurosceptics. How true is this perception? A. Since 1977, Ipsos has regularly asked the public ‘Should the UK remain in the European Union?’. In our most recent poll 48% of Britons said they wanted the UK to leave, while 44% believed we should stay. The current figures are similar to those seen in 2000, when 46% wanted to leave the EU. While support for remaining in Europe has dropped from the record high of 63%, seen in 1991, the numbers wishing to leave the EU are, more importantly, far from the peak seen in the early 1980s, when 65% of Britons favoured leaving. I suspect that once the economic consequences of breaking away from Europe are seriously considered we will see a drop in support for the Eurosceptics. We have seen this already with the question of Scottish independence – as soon as we include the economic consequences of leaving the union in the opinion polls, support for independence decreases. The state of public opinion regarding Europe could be radically altered by a referendum campaign, forcing people to think of the implications of leaving, especially if businesses throw their weight behind the pro-Europe campaign. Q. Do the British want a referendum on Europe? A. In 2011, 67% of Britons were in favour of the referendum on membership of the EU. But respondents are always in favour of a referendum in principle, even if the issue in question is the price of cheese. Would the British public be mobilised by the Europe question? That is another matter. When asked ‘What is the most important issue the country is facing?’, only 6% of Britons give the spontaneous response of ‘Europe’.

Q. Your recent poll saw UKIP, a Eurosceptic party, receive record levels of support of 9%, beating the Liberal Democrats ... A. Yes, but UKIP supporters are much more worried about immigration than they are about Europe. The increase in support for UKIP can be explained by the defection of disappointed Conservative party voters and a general disillusionment with mainstream political parties.

Q. Who are the British Eurosceptics? A. The degree of Euroscepticism is a function of education and social class. In the most privileged social categories, 59% of people want Britain to stay in the European Union. This figure decreases to 31% for the poorest social classes. On average, the Eurosceptics are older and less likely to live in the city centre.

Q. How do you explain the recent surge in Euroscepticism? A. There are a myriad of reasons – the immigration bureaucracy imposed by Brussels; the fact that many Britons still maintain an ‘island mentality’; even the belief still held by many that the European Union is a peaceful way for Germany to control the continent. There is also an important element of the anti-Europe right having seized the opportunity created by the euro crisis.

Interview by Nicolas Madelaine, London Correspondent of Les Echos. Original article (in French).