General Election 2001 - Election Digest

Latest ICM/Guardian Findings Gallup/BES Rolling Poll Projects To Labour Doubling Commons Majority Attitudes Towards Parties' Election Strategies

Latest ICM/Guardian Findings

The latest ICM/Guardian survey shows Labour on 45% (down a point since last week and two points since late April), the Tories on 32% (up one since last week) and the Liberal Democrats on 17%. Liberal Democrat support in ICM's polls has risen three points in the last month.

Labour lead the Tories by 7% on the question of which party has the best policies on tax, with Labour on 29%, the Tories on 22%, and the Liberal Democrats on 14%; while on crime, the two main parties are virtually level (29% for Labour and 28% for the Tories), but the Liberal Democrats are only chosen by 4%.

The public is evenly divided over whether they approve or disapprove (47% versus 44%) of private sector companies being asked to run some NHS hospitals, including clinical services. Even among Labour voters, 46% approve and 46% disapprove. On private sector companies being asked to run more state schools than at present there is greater disapproval (52% against; 38% for); among Labour voters 59% disapprove whilst 34% approve.

Of key cabinet post-holders, Gordon Brown's performance as Chancellor achieves a net approval rating of +28% (57% satisfied versus 29% dissatisfied), whilst John Prescott as Deputy PM and environment minister does least well among those listed, with a net -11%, (40% satisfied versus 51% dissatisfied).

Of the two Shadow Cabinet members listed, Ann Widdecombe emerges as a significantly stronger performer than Michael Portillo in the eyes of the public, with net approval ratings of +16% and -11% respectively.

Source: The Guardian, 23 May 2001 Technical details: ICM interviewed 1,000 adults aged over 18 by telephone across between 19-21 May 2001.

Gallup/BES Rolling Poll Projects To Labour Doubling Commons Majority

The latest findings from Gallup's rolling poll carried out for the British Election Study based at the University of Essex -- which compiles a seven day average from daily surveys -- gives Labour a 30% lead over the Tories. Results show Labour on 55%, the Tories on 25%, and the Liberal Democrats on 14%.

If this result were borne with a uniform swing on Election Day, the Labour Party would have a 355-seat majority, according to The Sun, almost doubling the majority of 179 seats achieved by Labour at the 1997 election.

Source: The Sun, 23 May 2001. Technical details: Fieldwork conducted by Gallup, interviewing by telephone. Sample c 150 on each of the seven days up to 21 May 2001. Further details at www.essex.ac.uk/bes

Attitudes Towards Parties' Election Strategies

Only a quarter of voters are impressed by the Tory election campaign so far, according to findings from an NOP/Powerhouse (Channel 4 political programme) survey. This compares to significantly higher voter approval ratings for Labour and the Liberal Democrats' campaigns so far that achieved 42% and 43% approval ratings respectively.

Source: Financial Times, 23 May 2001 Technical details: Survey by NOP. Sample c. 1,000.