General Election 2001 - Election Digest

Times 2001 Campaign Polls Wave 3 Latest Gallup Findings: Little Change In Voting Intentions Hitchhikers' Guide For The Candidates System Three/Herald Election Survey In Scotland Two Thirds Of Young People Not Intend To Vote

Times 2001 Campaign Polls Wave 3

The latest MORI/Times poll shows a slight increase in support for the main two parties, with Labour now on 55% and the Conservatives on 30%. Support for the Liberal Democrats is down slightly on last week's poll, with 11% indicating support.

Likelihood of voting is also slightly lower, with 69% now saying they are certain or very likely to vote compared with 16% who are unlikely or certain not to vote. Of those who said they would vote Labour, 69% have definitely decided, compared with 28% who may change their mind. For the Conservatives these figures are 67% and 31% respectively, and for the Liberal Democrats, 66% and 32%.

Support for party leaders is not universally in line with voting intentions - while 51% think Tony Blair would make the most capable Prime Minister, only 14% feel this way about William Hague, and 10% about Charles Kennedy. However, 25% of people agree with the statement "The Conservatives are ready to form the next Government", and the same number agree that William Hague is ready to be prime minister.

Support for the European Union is fairly evenly split. Of those who expressed an opinion, 51% believe we should stay in Europe against 49% who feel we should get out. However only 27% of those who expressed an opinion support Britain joining the Euro, against 73% who do not.

The take-up of postal voting is not widespread. Only 5% have applied to vote by post, with a further 3% saying they intend to. This compares to 90% who have no intention of using that method.

Press release Source: MORI/The Times, 24 May 2001 Technical details: MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,066 adults aged 18+ at 75 sampling points across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted face-to-face on 22nd May 2001

Latest Gallup Findings: Little Change In Voting Intentions

The latest Gallup/Daily Telegraph survey shows no change in voting intentions since last week for the two main parties; only the Liberal Democrats standing has improved. Both the Labour and Tory parties remain unchanged on 48% and 32% respectively, whilst the Liberal Democrats are on 15%, up 2% on last week's Gallup survey.

More than six in ten voters (62%) agree that the main parties are all "much of a muchness"; more than three quarters agree that all politicians quote statistics and figures that are meaningless to most people, and that they only hear soundbites and slogans from politicians (77% and 76% respectively). Seven in ten, (69%), agree with the proposition that the main party leaders are knowingly making false promises. Less than half of voters, (45%) however agree with the statement "None of the parties looks like doing much for people like me".

When told that some countries have an election ballot paper choice "none of the above", and given a list of the three main parties plus the "none of the above" statement from which to choose, 16% of voters opted for the latter statement; 5% above the Liberal Democrats, and 8% behind the Tories in this exercise.

Among eligible voters, only 69% say they will definitely turn out to vote.

Given a list of eight issues - Unemployment, Inflation/Prices, Health Service, Education, Taxation, Europe, Law and Order and Asylum - voters chose Labour over the Tories (% favouring Labour minus % favouring the Tories) as the best party to handle problems in every issue apart from asylum. Unemployment was the issue that Labour had greatest advantage over the Tories (+48%).

Source: Daily Telegraph, 24 May 2001 Technical details: Gallup interviewed 1,439 adults across Britain by telephone between 21-23 May 2001. The 5% of respondents were not on the electoral register and 7% who said they definitely would not vote were excluded from all voting intentions calculations.

Hitchhikers' Guide For The Candidates

Ann Widdecombe, chosen by 18% of respondents, is the least desirable politician to share a long summer car journey with, according to a survey of drivers reported in the Daily Telegraph; William Hague is next least desirable on 17%, followed by John Prescott, chosen by 15%.

Source: Daily Telegraph, 24 May 2001 Technical details: 981 drivers were interviewed by telephone.

System Three/Herald Election Survey In Scotland

A large scale System Three/Herald survey of 3,000 Scottish voters puts Labour on double the support of the second place party, the SNP. The standings are: Labour on 50%, the SNP on 25%, the Tories on 12%, the Liberal Democrats on 9%, and the Scottish Socialist Party on 3%.

The Herald reports that Labour has gained back 3% of the 5% support that was lost during the "month delay" in calling the election.

Secondary reports in other newspapers interpreted the poll as indicating that Charles Kennedy is running third in his own constituency, though the Herald was more cautious.

Source: The Herald, 23 May 2001 Technical details: System Three interviewed 3,000 Scottish adults across Scotland. Fieldwork dates not reported.

Two Thirds Of Young People Not Intend To Vote

64% of 18-25 year old said they had no interest in politics and that they would not be voting on Election day, according to a Roar survey reported in The Sun.

Source: The Sun 24 May 2001 Technical details: none given.