Ipsos Predictions 2023: A heatwave, an election, a general strike and food shortages, what are Britons expecting to happen in 2023?

Politics and current affairs

Having seen 3 Prime Ministers this year, almost half of Brits think it likely that we may have a new one by the end of 2023, as 46% say it is likely that Rishi Sunak will not be Prime Minister by this time next year (though this is lower than the proportion who correctly expected Boris Johnson to leave in 2022). However, this raises the question as to who may replace him. Seven in 10 think it is unlikely that Boris Johnson will return to his previous position (69%), while half do not expect to see Keir Starmer move into No.10 within the next year (51% unlikely, 27% likely). 

Half (50%) expect a general election to take place in 2023, a year earlier than currently planned, while a third (33%) think this is unlikely. The numbers are reversed for a Scottish independence referendum. Just under half think this is unlikely to happen in 2023 (48%) while a third (32%) think it is likely. 

With workers from a wide range of professions currently on or planning strikes this month, 2 in 3 (64%) expect a general strike to happen in 2023. Only a quarter feel this this is unlikely (22%).

Looking beyond Britain, just over half expect some Commonwealth countries to remove King Charles III as their Head of State next year (53%), only a quarter (24%) think this is unlikely. 

Only a third believe the Russian invasion of Ukraine with come to an end in 2023 (34%) while more than 4 in 10 (43%) think this is improbable. Almost half think it is unlikely that a nuclear bomb will be detonated as part of a conflict (47%), 24% think this is likely to occur. 

The economy

Britons don’t seem to have high hopes when it comes to the economy. Six in 10 (60%) believe food shortages in the UK are likely (+12 pts from when asked last year), while a similar proportion say their personal financial situation is unlikely to improve (57%). Just under half (46%) say house prices in their local area are likely to fall while a third disagree (33%), although the percentage saying this is likely is up from 20% last year.

The public say online purchases are likely to continue as a fact of life with 54% expecting to buy more products online than in person, while 2 in 3 say it is likely that a major high street retailer will move to only sell online (67%). Despite expecting more online interactions, this does not include the Metaverse yet. Only 1 in 5 expect to interact with a brand in the metaverse (21%) while half say this is unlikely (52%). 

Opinion is split when it comes to shopping locally, 43% say it is likely that they will make an effort to only buy products which   are locally sourced, 41% say unlikely. 

Sports

In football, almost half (46%) expect the Lionesses to continue on from their Euros win and become champions in the FIFA World Cup. While more than half (56%) say it is likely that a male Premier League football player with come out as gay to the public next year. 

2023 also brings the return of the men’s Rugby World Cup and Britons don’t appear to have much faith in their nations to win. England and Wales are most likely to be considered potential winners (22% and 21% likely respectively), while 16% believe the Scotland team has what it takes to bring home the trophy. 

Society 

Following this year’s record-breaking heatwave, many expect this to happen again. Six in 10 (60%) say it is likely that there will be a heatwave in which temperatures reach 40 degrees Celsius in the UK in 2023, a quarter disagree (25%). 

While we seem to have largely gone back to “normal” after the Covid-19 pandemic, some do not feel we are completely safe. Four in 10 (39%) say there will be a new variant of coronavirus which will be resistant to vaccines in 2023, while 38% disagree. 

2022 saw Elon Musk buy the social media site Twitter and looking forward almost half (45%) believe it is unlikely that Twitter will cease to function next year, while 3 in 10 (29%) think this could happen.

And from Parliament to the Jungle… to the dance floor? Four  in 10 (41%) expect Matt Hancock to take part in Strictly Come Dancing next year, 3 in 10 don’t believe this is likely to happen (31%). 

Gideon Skinner, head of political research at Ipsos, said:

Reflecting their experiences of 2022, economic and environmental concerns are high in Britons’ predictions for 2023, with most expecting another heatwave, more strikes, food shortages and little improvement in their own financial situation.  Nor is there a great deal of hope that political stability will return (or that the war in Ukraine will end) – although Rishi Sunak is given more chance of surviving 2023 than Boris Johnson was of 2022.  
In other areas, lingering effects of the pandemic continue with online shopping a part of daily life, although concerns about a vaccine-resistant strain emerging are much less than last year, if not disappeared altogether.  On the other hand, there is some tentative optimism that the Lionesses will repeat their Euros success at the World Cup, so there may be some brighter spots for next year.

Technical note:

Ipsos interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,044 adults aged 16-75 in Great Britain. Interviews took place on the online Omnibus 9th-12th December 2022. Data has been weighted to the known offline population proportions. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error