Political Commentary - Will May 3rd Be A Dreich Day For Labour In Scotland?

According to political folklore, the results of general elections are dependent on the weather. If polling day is cold, wet and grey -- a dreich day as us Scots would say -- it was long assumed that the Conservatives would benefit. Their supporters, the argument went, were more likely than Labour's supporters to brave the weather. A forecast of warmth and sunshine, in contrast, was seen as a positive omen for Labour's fortunes.

While the role of the weather on polling day has certainly been overplayed, there is little doubt that getting your supporters to turn-out to the polling station is crucial to electoral fortunes. At the last Scottish parliamentary elections in 2003, less than half (49%) of the electorate cast their vote, a drop of 10 percentage points from the inaugural Scottish Parliament elections of 1999. Labour received 35% of the constituency votes compared with 24% for the SNP, 17% for the Conservatives, and 15% for the Liberal Democrats. This equates to a lead of 11% for Labour among voters, but only a lead of 5% among the electorate as a whole.

Political parties, more than ever before, not only have to persuade the electorate to support them over their opponents, they must also persuade their supporters to act on this by casting their vote. Campaigns are crucial, especially when contests are marginal and keenly fought. Furthermore, the elections for local councils, using a Single Transferable Vote system, will add a further dynamic on 3rd May.

In our polling methodology, we take account of likely differences in turnout. In addition to asking about their party support, we ask people to rate their likelihood of voting on a scale of 1 to 10. Only those who state that they are certain to vote -- 10 out of 10 -- are included in our headline voting intention figures. We have found by experiment at recent general elections that this filter seems to give the best estimate of the voting loyalties of those who eventually turn out.

In our closest poll to the 2003 Scottish parliament election, 59% said that they were certain to vote. Our polling in March in Scotland gives a figure of 53%. Given that the fieldwork for this poll was conducted before the start of the election campaign, and given that we would expect a rise in political awareness over the campaign period, it looks unlikely that turnout on May 3rd will be dramatically different to that in 2003.

But what of the likely turnout amongst supporters of the different parties? Our latest evidence suggests that there is a significant gap in the likely levels turnout for the four main parties, with Labour trailing behind the other three. Overall, only 59% of respondents who indicated that they would vote for Labour in the constituency vote said that they were certain to vote. This compares with 64% of SNP supporters, 65% of Conservative supporters and 67% of Liberal Democrat supporters. Analysis of the voting intentions for the list vote shows a similar pattern, with a 5 percentage point gap in likelihood of voting between Labour and SNP supporters.

So what does this mean to the likely result? According to our polling in March, Labour retains a small lead over the SNP in the constituency vote among all those expressing a preference (36% compared to 32%). However, once likelihood to vote is taken into account, the two parties are neck and neck (34% and 33% respectively). For the list vote, the Labour and the SNP are neck and neck (30% and 31%) before adjusting for likelihood of voting. After this adjustment, the SNP enjoys a small lead over Labour (32% to 28%). Clearly, differential turnout could decide what promises to be a closely fought contest. Our polling suggests there is all to play for.

Finally, consider this. The political weather is shaped by Scots' views of issues and debates south of the border as well as in Scotland itself. Studies have shown that -- put simply -- regardless of where the power lies, when something goes wrong, the Scots are more likely to blame Westminster, but when the going gets good, it is Holyrood that gets the praise. Perhaps then, the outcome for Labour (and others) on 3rd May is dependent on what forecast the electorate are persuaded by: a band of sunshine over Holyrood, or rain emanating from Westminster?

Ipsos Scotland