The slow death of political parties

Generation Y, the youngest adult generation, have recently been called Dave’s No 1 Fans, Thatcher’s Children, The Boris Generation or just plain Generation Right.

Much of this discussion draws on our analysis – and there is some truth in the conclusions.  But it paints a picture of party political allegiance that is not quite right - and more importantly, risks missing the much bigger issue of a frightening generational shift away from any sort of party political engagement.

There is plenty of evidence to suggest an outlook among the young that could be described as more right-wing.  They are less in favour of more redistribution through welfare.  They feel very little connection to big government institutions like the welfare state.  This reflects a greater sense of personal responsibility and individualism than we’ve typically seen in other generations at a similar age.  They have a focus on the importance of personal contribution that you may not expect from a generation that are starting out in particularly tough economic conditions.  

And our recent work on the next cohort of teenagers coming through suggests this trend is continuing, with increasing emphasis on getting on at an individual level.

As noted in much of the commentary, this is combined with more liberal attitudes on a wide-range of social issues, including gender roles, homosexuality and immigration or diversity.  

So economically and institutionally right-wing, but socially liberal – a generation for austere but open times? 
Leaving aside the obvious issues with generalising about a whole generation - given we’ve been one of the main culprits in that - this does seem to fit with the data. It’s true that it’s not a particularly new insight about the young – there were, for example, very similar observations in 1960s America.1 

But it’s in trying to relate this to support for the Conservative party where this characterisation of Generation Y in the UK breaks down.  

First, there is the simple fact that Generation Y are still vastly more likely to say they will vote Labour than Conservative  – as shown in the chart below, which includes new analysis from our 2014 surveys.  Generation Y are also more likely to say they will vote Labour than any of the older cohorts - which would be difficult to guess from some of the commentary on them.  

It is true that the proportion saying they would vote Conservative has increased markedly from the mid-2000s – but this group still only make up 18% of the Generation Y population.  

And comparisons with previous generations show that the current young are not that politically different from previous cohorts of young people, in relative terms.  For example, back in 1996 Generation X were roughly the same average age as Generation Y are now – and were actually closer to older cohorts on Labour support and at a similar relative level of Conservative support.

The article was published in www.ipsos-mori-generations.com