Three-quarters say findings of report into lockdown breaches is bad for the Prime Minister, the Conservative Party and trust in politics generally

New research by Ipsos, conducted after the publication of update the on the Civil Service’s report into alleged parties at Downing Street, shows a majority of Britons are in favour of Boris Johnson resigning (58%) or Conservative MPs triggering a vote of no confidence in their leader by sending letters to the 1922 Committee (57%). Although there has been a decline in the proportion of 2019 Conservative voters supporting a vote of no confidence since mid-January (51% then dropping to 38% now).

Despite the public as a whole being in favour of Conservative MPs triggering a vote of no confidence, opinion is split as to whether this is likely to happen. Thirty-six per cent say it is likely, while 39% say it is unlikely. Expectations are similar across party lines, 39% of

Conservative voters and 36% of Labour voters say it is likely while 39% and 41% respectively think otherwise. 
When considering what they have seen so far of the report findings, 3 in 4 (75% - of whom 53% believe they are very  bad) say they are bad for Boris Johnson, with only 9% saying they are good. Similarly, 72% (43% very bad) say the findings are negative for the Conservative Party, 10% believing otherwise. Half (48%) see the findings as bad for the Civil Service, while 14% say they are good. Considering public trust in politics generally, 76% believe the findings of the report are damaging (including 45% who say very bad) and only 8% think they are positive. 

Stories about the report into “partygate” have clearly been cutting through to the general public, 77% say they have been following the stories closely including a third (33%) who have been following them very closely.  This is similar to the proportion who said they were following stories about the cost of living earlier this month, and more than the 66% who said they were following stories about the alleged Downing St parties in December.

Should Boris Johnson be replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative MP, Britons are more likely to support his replacement calling a General Election immediately (51% in favour) than waiting until 2024, when the next General Election is currently scheduled (30% in favour).

Findings of the report appear to be about as thorough and independent as expected . Before the report was released, 51% of Britons were confident the findings would be thorough while 42% expected them to be independent. Now, 50% are confident the findings are thorough and 45% are independent (the proportion who doubted they would be independent has actually fallen slightly from 53% to 45%). 

Before the report was released, 58% of Britons were not confident that the findings would lead to disciplinary action for any individuals found to have broken coronavirus restrictions. Now, though, 64% say they are not confident that the findings will do so. 

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos in the UK, says:

Here is more evidence of the damage the stories about lockdown breaches is doing to Boris Johnson and the Conservatives.  Many Britons are still following the story closely, and three in four think the findings released so far are bad for them – around half believe severely so.  Around six in ten still think he should face a no-confidence vote – although in slightly better news for the Prime Minister support for this among his own voters has fallen, and overall only one in three think it’s likely.  But people also think the fallout will be wider – with implications for the Civil Service but also particularly for public faith in politics more generally.

Technical note:

• Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,004 British adults aged 18-75. Interviews were conducted online between 31 January – 01 February 2022. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.