Ipsos Predictions Survey 2025: Positivity about how this year has gone highest since before the pandemic

2024 in retrospect
Looking Towards 2025
The Economy in 2025
Technology in 2025
World Security Issues in 2025
Environment in 2025
Society in 2025

Key findings

• Despite the cost of living crisis and conflicts around the world, fewer people say this year was bad. Two-thirds (65%) say 2024 was a bad year for my country, the lowest figure since 2019. 
• However, positivity for the new year yet to return to pre-COVID levels. Seven in ten (71%) say they are optimistic 2025 will be better than this year, below the level of positivity seen before the pandemic.
• Europeans pessimistic the global economy will improve. While on a global level people are most positive the economy will stronger than in recent years, in Europe a number of countries are less positive in their outlook than last year.
• People expect greater regulation of tech industry. Back in 2021, when we last asked this question, 38% expected their government to introduce strict rules for large tech companies, in 2024 this has risen to 47%. 
• Fewer think stronger laws to fight climate change will be introduced. The proportion who think their government will introduce stronger targets to reduce carbon emissions is down 3pp compared to last year (now 52%).

How was it for you? 2024 in retrospect

2024, a year marked by both global unity and escalating tensions, has left the world in a state of cautious optimism. The Paris Olympics provided a fleeting moment of shared celebration, yet the backdrop of ongoing conflicts, including the escalating Israel-Palestine war spilling into Lebanon and the persistent war in Ukraine, contributed to a sense of unease. Political upheaval further fuelled this uncertainty, with a significant 80% of incumbents in democracies losing their seats in elections worldwide. These political shifts, alongside the economic fragility caused by inflation, have undoubtedly influenced public sentiment. 

Despite these challenges, the global economy showed its first signs of stabilisation in three years, with Southern Asia experiencing particularly robust growth. Technological developments, such as the EU's foremost comprehensive legal framework for generative AI and the first commercial spacewalk, offered glimmers of hope, while natural disasters, like the Noto earthquake in Japan and widespread flooding and wildfires, served as stark reminders of the ongoing climate crisis. 

Amidst this complex landscape, public sentiment reflects a cautious hope for the future. While 65% still considered 2024 a bad year for their country, this represents a 5-percentage point drop from 2023, returning to pre-pandemic levels of optimism. This shift in sentiment is particularly notable in Argentina (71%) and Poland (53%), which saw improvements of 17 and 16 percentage points respectively. Conversely, negative sentiment rose in countries like India (+6pp), highlighting the uneven distribution of global recovery. Furthermore, while people are generally more upbeat about their personal lives than their national context, we also saw a rise in individual positivity with almost half of respondents (49%) reporting a good year for themselves and their families. The greatest improvements were seen in China (16pp), Poland (9pp), and Belgium (11pp). However, rising negative sentiment in Peru (6pp) underscores the complex interplay of global and personal circumstances.

Looking Towards 2025

Global optimism for 2025 is showing positive trends across several key areas.  A majority of people surveyed (71%) believe that 2025 will be a better year than 2024, a slight 1-percentage point increase from the previous year's outlook for 2024.  Historically, optimism levels have fluctuated between 75% and 80% over the past decade, suggesting a potential return towards these higher levels.

Economic optimism also saw a modest rise.  51% of respondents anticipate a stronger global economy in 2025. While this is up from the decade-long low of 46% seen in 2022, there is still plenty of scope for improvement compared to the end of the last decade when optimism in the global economy fluctuated around the mid-50% mark and peaked at 61% in 2021. Emerging markets like Indonesia (82%), China (79%), and Thailand (67%) continue to express strong confidence in their global economic outlook, perhaps reflecting their more robust growth in 2024.

Personal well-being may contribute to this positive outlook, with 75% planning personal resolutions for 2025 and a majority expecting improvements in mental (69%) and physical (69%) health in the coming year. This focus on self-improvement may be a response to the challenges and uncertainties of recent years, including the pandemic and ongoing global instability.

Looking at long-term optimism, 52% of those surveyed believe people in their respective countries will feel more optimistic about the future in 2025.  Indonesia (88%) and China (86%) lead in this category.

While the overall global averages reflect slight improvements in optimism, significant country-level variations exist.  For instance, optimism about a better year in 2025 is highest in Indonesia (90%) and lowest in Japan (38%).  Similarly, confidence in a stronger global economy varies widely, ranging from 82% in Indonesia to 25% in France.  These variations highlight the diverse economic and social contexts influencing individual outlooks.

The Economy in 2025

Global economic anxiety persists despite calming inflationary pressures

Globally, people's economic outlook remains relatively unchanged on most measures for 2025 compared to what we saw last year. Concerns persist with a majority anticipating higher prices, taxes, and unemployment in their country. A significant 79% of respondents across 33 countries believe that prices will increase faster than incomes in 2025, a figure unchanged since 2022. Similarly, expectations for higher taxes remain substantial at 74%, which is consistent with the findings of the previous year. 

Globally, 70% of respondents expect inflation to be higher in 2025 than in 2024, a figure identical to last year. However, this global average masks some significant country-level variations. Several countries have witnessed double-digit shifts in sentiment regarding inflation compared to 2023. Argentina (-26 percentage points) and Sweden (-12 percentage points) show considerably fewer people expecting higher inflation in 2025. Conversely, Hungary (+21 percentage points) and Poland (+16 percentage points) have seen a notable increase in the proportion of respondents anticipating higher inflation. Indians are particularly optimistic in their outlook with 61% expecting rising inflation, despite higher forecasts. 

The one major exception to these relatively static perceptions of the economy is regarding interest rates. Expectations for higher interest rates in 2025 have decreased globally, with 61% of respondents anticipating a rise compared to 70% in 2023. This nine-percentage point drop suggests a growing belief that interest rate hikes may be nearing their peak. 

However, like inflation, country-level data reveals a more nuanced picture. Brazil (11 percentage points), Hungary (8 percentage points), and Romania (7 percentage points) stand out with increased expectations of higher interest rates, while significant drops are observed in Sweden (-30 percentage points), South Korea (-21 percentage points), and the United States (-21 percentage points).

Technology in 2025

Navigating a world of technological dualities

The global public continues to hold a complex and often contradictory view of technology's future, marked by both anticipation and apprehension. Globally, the fear of AI-driven job losses (65%) continues to outweigh the expectation of AI-driven job creation (43%). This trend echoes previous years, but the gap appears to be slightly narrowing. Optimism shines in China, where 77% foresee AI creating jobs, while concerns dominate in Japan, with 65% predicting job losses.

The perceived allure of virtual worlds is growing, with 59% globally expecting increased engagement with such platforms, up 3 percentage points since the last time we asked this question in 2022.  Western countries like the USA (45%), Sweden (46%) and Great Britain (46%) tend to be more sceptical whereas emerging economies like Indonesia (94%), Türkiye (79%) and Brazil (74%) are confident in their views on such a reality. 

Interestingly, the intent to reduce social media usage (37% globally) has slightly dipped from last year's 41% despite a backlash against such forums reflected in proposed smartphone bans in schools - predicted by 44% globally, led by the Netherlands (74%). Globally 47% anticipate stricter regulations for large tech companies, a significant increase from 38% in 2021. Yet, limited optimism remains regarding matters such as personal data – 57% globally expect personal data leaks in 2025.

This year's data reveals a nuanced global perspective on technology, balancing hope with apprehension as we navigate an increasingly digital future.

World Security Issues in 2025

A sense of unease permeates as people grapple with a complex and uncertain future

A prevailing sense of unease characterises global expectations for world security in 2025.  While pandemic fears have slightly subsided (47% globally, down 1 percentage point from 2023), the threat of nuclear conflict (49% likely) looms large, with Indonesians (79%) and Malaysians (67%) feeling particularly worried.  Anxiety around rogue AI remains unchanged from last year with 35% globally fearing significant disruption – a surprising response given this year's CrowdStike global outage event. This suggests a potential link between technological advancement and perceived security risks.

On the topic of war, Western nations tend to be more pessimistic about the resolution of ongoing conflicts in comparison to emerging economies. Hopes for resolving the war in Ukraine have diminished to 27% globally (down 4 percentage points), with Colombia (-11 percentage points) and Australia (-10 percentage points) expressing increasing pessimism.  Conversely, Malaysia shows growing optimism (+7 percentage points).  Similarly, expectations for peace in the Middle East during 2025 are even lower (22% globally), with India (55% likely) most hopeful and Sweden (81% unlikely) the least.

Overall, this outlook reveals a world grappling with both evolving technological threats and persistent geopolitical conflicts, shaping a complex and uncertain future.

Environment in 2025

Environmental concerns persist while faith in government action and technological solutions wane

Global anxieties surrounding climate change persist, with 80% expecting rising global temperatures, (-1 percentage point from 2023), this is significantly more than the 71% who agreed with this statement in 2017 when we first asked this question. 72% globally also anticipate more extreme weather events (+1 percentage point from 2023).  This unease is reflected in the 42% who believe parts of their country will become uninhabitable due to extreme weather. Regional disparities are stark. Southeast Asian nations like the Philippines (78%), Indonesia (66%) and Malaysia (58%) express the highest concern in this respect – likely reflecting the reality of their significant populations living on low-lying islands and coastal deltas. In contrast, European countries like the Netherlands (23%) and Sweden (21%) are less worried.

While climate fears grow, faith in government action or that science will provide a game-changing solution is low and/or declining.  Only 52% globally believe their governments will introduce more demanding emissions targets, a 3-percentage point drop from 2023.  This decline is particularly pronounced in the Netherlands (-20pp) and Chile (-11pp), while Argentina - the most sceptical country - shows a 6-percentage point increase. China, despite high expectations of extreme weather, maintains a strong belief (84%) in government action and technological breakthroughs (65%) to find solutions. In contrast, only 32% globally believe a breakthrough will halt climate change, unchanged from the last time we asked in 2022, which is interesting given the proliferation of Gen AI advancements in that timeframe. 

2025 predictions reveal a world increasingly anxious about climate change but less confident in government and technological solutions. This growing unease underscores the urgent need for global cooperation and innovative approaches.

Society in 2025

Societal anxieties persist, with low hopes for progress

Global anxieties around immigration, persistent gender inequality, and evolving work patterns dominate public expectations for 2025, while optimism for increased societal tolerance remains muted.

Globally, 67% of people anticipate increased immigration, down 4 percentage points from last year, despite this perception often diverging from actual migration trends.  Countries like Türkiye (84%) and Spain (80%) express higher expectations than nations with historically higher immigration levels like the US (56%) and Canada (55%). This suggests anxieties, rather than empirical data, may be driving these perceptions.

Hopes for gender pay equality remain tempered, with 49% globally believing it will be achieved by 2025.  Southeast Asian nations express the highest confidence, while European countries show significantly lower expectations. This disparity doesn't correlate directly with existing gender gaps, suggesting cultural factors influence these perceptions.

Only 33% globally believe people in their countries will become more tolerant of one another in 2025, a 2-percentage point drop from last year, reversing the positive progress we have seen on this issue since its lowest point in 2021 (28%). Singapore (-15pp), Türkiye (-12pp) and the Philippines (-12pp) all saw significant declines.  

Expectations for a four-day working week are low, with only 32% globally predicting its widespread adoption.  Asian countries show the highest expectations, while European countries express less optimism.

About the Study

These are the results of a 33-country survey conducted by Ipsos on its Global Advisor online platform and, in India, on its IndiaBus platform, between Friday, October 25 and Friday, November 8, 2024. For this survey, Ipsos interviewed a total of 23,721 adults aged 18 years and older in India, 18-74 in Canada, Republic of Ireland, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Africa, Türkiye, and the United States, 20-74 in Thailand, 21-74 in Indonesia and Singapore, and 16-74 in all other countries.  Full methodology is explained in the report.