Washington, DC, April 7, 2023– The latest Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted following Donald Trump's arrest and arraignment in New York on Tuesday shows that Americans are divided about Trump's prosecution and continue to feel the prosecution is politically motivated but the charges against him are believable. The poll also shows that Republicans continue to support Trump for the nomination for president, with his support growing from our survey earlier this week.
About half of Americans (49%) say that the prosecutors in New York were right to file criminal charges against Donald Trump, but perceptions vary widely by partisanship, with 84% of Democrats saying that the prosecutors were right compared to just 16% of Republicans. More than half of Americans (56%) believe the prosecution is politically motivated. Donald Trump's position as front-runner for the Republican nomination continues to strengthen with 58% of Republicans supporting him, compared to 48% earlier this week, and 44% last month. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis receives one-fifth of Republican support (21%), statistically unchanged from earlier this week (19%), but down nine points from March (30%). Two in five Republicans also said that the criminal case against Donald Trump makes them more likely to vote Donald Trump (40%), while just 12% said it made them less likely, and another 38% said it had no impact. Seventy-three percent of Americans say they believe Trump paid Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal to remain quiet about their alleged extramarital relationships, including more than half of Republicans (55%).
About the Study
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between April 5-6, 2023, on behalf of Thomson Reuters. For this survey, a sample of 1,004 adults age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii was interviewed online in English. The sample includes 464 Democrats, 368 Republicans, and 120 independents.
The sample was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel, partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2022 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, and education.
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=1,004, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.3 percentage points).
The poll also has a credibility interval of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points for Democrats, plus or minus 6.3 percentage points for Republicans, and plus or minus 11.0 percentage points for independents.
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