What to know going into the first GOP primary debate

While most Americans are yawning through the waning days of late August, the political world is buzzing with one indictment after another and now, next week, the first Republican primary debate in Milwaukee.

While eight candidates have qualified for the debate, the leading one—former President Donald Trump—may not show up. Right now, Trump leads the Republican primary field, with a history of drawing viewers into his media moments. The former president's decision to show up matters for his opponents.

In the five charts below, we consider the state of the GOP primary race, Trump’s weight in the media, and who these debates could help.

1. Trump in the lead. Former President Trump remains the frontrunner in the GOP primary. Following his first indictment, Trump jumped 10 points in the polls. After a few additional indictments, his support has stabilized at pre-indictment levels. His closest contender, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, has fallen substantially in the polls since then. Will he maintain his lead over his rivals? Right now, it looks likely.
2. Indictments don’t matter, convictions might. How do Trump's legal challenges help or hurt him politically? Republicans don’t give much weight to the indictments themselves. Instead, it looks like prison time or a felony conviction by a jury may peel support away from the former president. That’s all subject to change, but it seems like, legally, things must get more serious before these indictments could make inroads into Trump’s base.
3. Trump is the center of gravity. That may be due to the pull Trump has over the GOP, the media, and, frankly, the country. Look at the data. Just looking at GOP candidates who qualified for the debate, he trounces all of them by a mile in Google search trends. It’s hard to cut through the noise with a competitor like this.
4. It’s Trump’s show. Of course, the big question hanging over the debate is: will Trump show up? It’s unclear what the former president will decide to do and when he may decide it, but it’s clear that his presence does make an impact. During Trump’s first GOP primary debate in 2015, he blew ratings out of the water. Between the first Republican primary debate in 2015 and 2011, eight times more people tuned in. He is a ratings juggernaut.
5. Who do debates help? How many people tune in matters for the lower-tier candidates struggling to make a splash. Looking at polling from the Democratic primary debate, less well-known candidates seem to make an impact on debate watchers, allowing them to stand out and impress. For more well-known candidates, like Bernie Sanders or Joe Biden, people largely had baked-in views on these candidates. Trump’s draw (or lack thereof) may cut into his opponents looking to get recognized.

Heading into the GOP primary debate next week, the former president is comfortably ahead in the polls despite mounting indictments. The other GOP primary candidates will likely struggle to draw people into the program in the way that Trump can.

What does that mean? Perhaps a smaller audience and fewer chances to take direct swings at the leading candidate; a tough spot to be in.