Watson in a Walk as Ottawa Turfs O'Brien

Watson (44%) leads O'Brien (21%) on Topline Vote Preference with Haydon (9%) and Doucet (7%) Trailing... Among those Committed to Go Out and Vote Watson's Lead (48%) Extends to Twenty-Eight points over Incumbent O'Brien (20%).

16 October 2010

Ottawa, ON - With less than two weeks to go in the race for the mayor's chair in Ottawa, a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of the Ottawa Citizen has revealed that the campaign is clearly swinging behind mayoral challenger Jim Watson.

This poll, which was taken October 13 - 14, 2010, finds that if the election were to happen tomorrow Jim Watson would garner 44% of the vote against incumbent Larry O'Brien, who would receive 21%.

Two other candidates trail with Andrew Haydon garnering 9% of the vote, followed by Clive Doucet on 7%. Two in ten Ottawa residents are undecided, or do not know who they will vote for.

But these are the results from what we refer to as `Topline preference voters' - a total that includes many voters who won't likely go out to the ballot box on voting day. That's why another set of potential voters become: those who say that they are absolutely certain they will go out on Election Day. In the most recent 2006 election when Larry O'Brien was first elected mayor, voter turnout was estimated at 54%; in the 2003 election prior, turnout was estimated at just 33%. When trying to predict the outcome of a municipal election, it's most important to focus on voters who will actually show up to cast their ballot on Election Day.

Fifty-seven percent of Ottawa citizens claim that they are "absolutely certain" of voting on Election Day. While this might represent an overestimation of eventual voter turnout on October 25, it's nevertheless an important measure of both commitment and motivation of those most likely to actually show up and mark their ballot.

When the votes are counted among this pool of `likely turnout voters', it reveals that Jim Watson (48%) extends his lead over incumbent Larry O'Brien (20%) and well outpaces Andew Haydon (11%) and Clive Doucet (9%); while only 13% of voters in this pool remain undecided, or would vote for another candidate.

Other Vote Perspectives...

57% of citizens indicate they are absolutely certain to go out and vote on Election Day. Of the candidates, Andrew Haydon's voter base is the most committed to actually go out and vote (69%) followed by those supporting Clive Doucet (66%), Jim Watson (62%) and Larry O'Brien (54%). Older citizens aged 55+ are the most likely to say they are certain to vote (74%), followed by those aged 35-54 (62%), and 18-34 (33%).
Andrew Haydon's supporters are the most likely to say they are `very certain' of voting for him (as opposed to another candidate) on Election Day (59%), followed by supporters of Larry O'Brien (53%), Jim Watson (53%) and Clive Doucet (49%).

Other Voter Questions...

When asked which local issue is the most important motivator for driving their voting behaviour, Transit/Transportation emerges as the top issue, with 23% of Ottawa citizens citing this as the primary driver of their vote-selection. Other significant drivers are High Taxes (11%) and the City Budget/Deficit (5%). 7% of Ottawa citizens say that their primary reason for going out to vote is to ensure that Larry O'Brien is not elected for a second term.
When asked which candidate has the best vision for Ottawa, citizens, overall, strongly favour Jim Watson (38%) over Larry O'Brien (19%). Andrew Haydon and Clive Doucet trail on 8%.
When asked which candidate they "trust the most to make good decisions", citizens, overall, strongly favour Jim Watson (41%) over Larry O'Brien (17%). Andrew Haydon and Clive Doucet trail on 10% and 8% respectively.
When asked which candidate will "manage taxpayers money best", citizens, overall, strongly favour Jim Watson (38%) over Larry O'Brien (20%). Andrew Haydon and Clive Doucet trail on 11% and 6% respectively.
When citizens were asked whether they feel they are getting a "real choice for Councilor" among those running in their Ward, 60% of citizens agree, while 28% disagree. 12% are not able to or declined to give an answer. Older citizens aged 55+ are the most likely to feel they have a real choice (66%), followed by 35-54s (60%) and 18-34s (53%).

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of the Ottawa Citizen from October 13-14, 2010. For the survey, a representative randomly-selected sample of 400 adults living in Ottawa was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 1774.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Ottawa been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/gender composition reflects that of the actual Ottawa population according to Census data. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Mike Colledge
President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
(613) 688-8971
[email protected]

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

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