Swing Finally Looking Up For Conservatives

Although the Conservatives have pulled to within two points of Labour in the most recent MORI poll, this would still suggest Labour's majority in the House of Commons would be nearly 100 seats over all other parties. The voting intentions of the 53 percent of the British electorate who say they are 'certain' they'll vote when the election comes is 39 percent for Labour, 37 percent for the Tories and just 18 percent for the Liberal Democrats, a swing of 3.7 percentage points from Labour to Conservatives since the general election.

This is the best news Michael Howard has had since taking over the leadership of the Tory Party a year ago November, although his party still stands in a very deep hole and the likeliest election day is just ten weeks from today. The depth of the hole is illustrated by the MORI "swingo" model developed and tested in 1997 and 2001 by Dr Roger Mortimore, MORI's Senior Political Analyst.

On a uniform swing across the country, it shows that to win, the Tories would have to poll 45 percent to Labour's 33 percent, a 12 point lead, while holding the Liberal Democrats to 18 percent, a point lower than last time. No one with the possible exceptions of Michael Howard and his Australian political advisor Lynton Crosby would realistically think this is possible in such a short time between now and 5th May.

There's also good news for Mr Howard in that his personal satisfaction level has turned up. In December and January it hung at 22 percent. It is now up to 25, just three points to be sure, but still is heading in the right direction. It is however ten points lower than the Prime Minister's rating of 35 percent, and general elections, unlike abstract levels of satisfaction, are a 'zero-sum' game. When pitted head to head, as measured last month, Blair is thought by the public to be the most capable of the three party leaders, with 39 percent saying Blair is, to 17 percent for both Howard and Charles Kennedy, the Leader of the Liberal Democrats.

Mr Kennedy and his Liberal Democrat colleagues will be dismayed by the MORI findings, but these I believe are as much a measure of the media spotlight being on the other two party leaders recently, as they have both begun their vigorous and at times negative election campaign, the Prime Minister announcing their six key pledges (including five of the seven top issues volunteered by MORI's respondents as the most important issues facing the country).

Remarkably, as FT political correspondent Christopher Adams pointed out yesterday, nearly a quarter of the public (23%) spontaneously named asylum seekers and other immigrants as the single most important issue facing the country, nearly double the percentage naming either the Iraq War and terrorism or health care (13% each) as the single most important issue. Only 2 percent said hunting/countryside matters were among the most important issues facing Britain.

This article first appeared in the Financial Times on 25 February 2005