Trust in the Conservatives on immigration and asylum improves, though most still lack confidence

• Trust has particularly increased among 2019 Conservative voters, who are now more positive than negative.
• Overall, the Conservatives mostly score similarly to Labour on trust in immigration and asylum.
• Easing the cost of living, improving the NHS and growing the economy remain Britons’ top priorities among Rishi Sunak’s pledges, above illegal immigration – though this is relatively more important to 2019 Conservatives

New research by Ipsos, after the announcement of Rishi Sunak’s new Illegal Migration Bill, shows that trust in the Conservatives on immigration and asylum issues has improved since last month, although still remains low. Over half do not trust them very much, but around one in three do trust the Conservatives to have the right policies towards asylum seekers (35%, up 7ppts since February), to have the right immigration policies (36%, +8), and to handle the issue of migrants crossing the Channel (33%, +9). On all of these trust in Labour is relatively unchanged, and now the two parties are perceived very similarly by the public, when Labour were ahead in recent months. When it comes to making it harder to enter the country illegally, 40% trust the Conservatives (up 10ppts since February), against 31% for Labour (little changed).

Trust in the Conservatives on these issues has particularly improved among their own 2019 voters. For example, trust in their policies on asylum seekers among 2019 Conservative voters has risen from 38% to 59%, and trust in their immigration policies from 37% to 61%.

Similarly, the research shows that 1 in 3 Britons (32%) think Rishi Sunak’s government will do a good job at passing laws to stop small boat crossings, an increase from 23% who said the same in January 2023. More than a third believe it will do a bad job (36%), down from 44% at the start of the year.

Meanwhile, 29% believe Sunak’s government will do a good job at making sure people who come to Britain illegally are detained and swiftly removed, up from 18% in January, 39% say a bad job, down from 50%.

Despite the recent focus, other issues – particularly around the cost of living and the NHS – remain higher up Britain’s priority list. Just over a quarter (27%) say making sure people who come to Britain illegally are detained and swiftly removed is one of their most important priorities, with 19% saying the same for passing new laws to stop small boat crossing from France.

However, we see higher proportions wanting to prioritise easing the cost of living and giving people financial security (67%), ensuring people get the NHS care they need more quickly (58%) and reducing NHS waiting lists (50%). Among the Prime Minister’s pledges that he announced at the start of the year, only making sure the national debt is falling is lower on the list (14%). However, again issues around illegal migration are more important to the Conservatives’ own voters. Just under half, 45%, of 2019 Conservative voters say making sure illegal immigrants are detained and swiftly removed is a priority, in equal third place with growing the economy and reducing NHS waiting lists, but still behind easing the cost of living (59%) and getting people NHS care more quickly (54%). One in three (32%) of 2019 Conservative voters say passing new laws to stop small boat crossings is an important priority, compared to just 7% of 2019 Labour voters.

Opinions remain mixed when it comes to Rishi Sunak’s performance as Prime Minister, a third (33%) say he has been doing a bad job while 29% believe he is doing well, marginally worse than last month (when 29% said good job, and 29% bad) . Meanwhile, almost 4 in 10 believe Suella Braverman has been doing a bad job as Home Secretary, around 1 in 5 (19%) say she had been doing a good job. This is a slight improvement from February, when 12% though she was doing a good job and 37% bad).

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos, said:

While public confidence in the Conservatives on immigration and asylum remains low, there are some signs that the dial has started to turn. In particular, 2019 Conservative voters are now much more positive about Rishi Sunak and his government on this issue than they were previously, and now most of them trust the Conservatives on immigration and asylum, when last month that was just a minority. Supporters of other parties are of course though more critical, and overall the Conservatives are still mostly only neck-and-neck with Labour on this issue, although they have recovered from being behind. Looking ahead, delivery on these pledges will be crucial to maintain improved confidence, and more widely while it’s clear that this topic is a priority for their own voters, the Conservatives can’t forget that for the public as a whole the cost of living, the economy and the NHS are all bigger issues, and they will be looking to the government to deliver improvements on these as well

Technical note

Ipsos interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,000 adults aged 18-75 in Great Britain. Interviews took place on the online Omnibus 8th-10th March 2023. Data have been weighted to the known offline population proportions. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.