The Voice of Britain: From Our Archives (2)

Continuing the exploration of our archives from the run-up to the 1979 election (the last at which a Labour government entered the campaign trailing in the polls), we are now re-publishing a series of polls from 1979: our monthly "British Public Opinion" polls from the start of February and early March, a poll for TV Eye conducted the day after the government lost the vote of confidence in the House of Commons, and our five weekly polls for the Daily Express and Evening Standard conducted during the campaign itself (on 1-2 April, 8-9 April, 16-17 April, 21-23 April and 26 April). These were followed by our final eve-of-poll surveys, one for the Express and one for the Standard, each of which correctly predicted all three major parties' vote shares to within one percentage point.

The pattern of voting intentions in the run-up to the 1979 election looks eerily reminiscent of the events of recent weeks, with a once-impressive Tory lead evaporating as the polls narrowed. David Cameron will perhaps take comfort that the gap eventually opened up once more, and Margaret Thatcher won a majority in the end.

Popular wisdom remembers 1979 as the "Winter of Discontent" election, when attitudes to the trade unions and industrial relations were what most clearly divided the parties. It is interesting, therefore, to see that as the campaign began it was – by a massive margin - inflation and the cost of living that was the issue that most voters expected the election to be about, and that they thought it should be about. More than twice as many picked that as picked trade unions/strikes, which dead-heated as second-placed issue with unemployment. But industrial relations moved up the issues agenda as the election progressed.

But more intriguing, perhaps, is the extent to which Jim Callaghan's ratings consistently ran ahead of his party's and of his opponent Mrs Thatcher's. At every election from 1983 onwards, the eventual election winner has had a lead over his or her rival in the public's choice of best Prime Minister. Indeed, some commentators have suggested that in 1992, when John Major had a clear lead over Neil Kinnock on this measure, it ought to have been taken as a warning that the voting intention polls were misleading. But the 1979 election shows clearly that this is not necessarily the case: Mr Callaghan was consistently ahead of Mrs Thatcher, and indeed his lead grew through the campaign; yet it didn't stop her replacing him in Downing Street.

In fact we can clearly see now that throughout that campaign Mrs Thatcher was potentially the weak link for the Conservatives, while the well-liked Callaghan was an asset for Labour. Predictably and reasonably, voters were much more likely to feel that Thatcher was "rather inexperienced" than to say the same of Callaghan. But Thatcher was also much more likely than Callaghan to be seen as tending "to talk down to people" (31% picked that as a description that fitted Thatcher, only 16% applied it to Callaghan), and more thought that she "sometimes has rather extreme views" (26% compared to 12%), while Callaghan scored because more people saw him than saw as understanding the problems facing Britain, being a capable leader and being down to earth. But despite this, when the voters were asked what a Conservative or Labour government would be like, rather than about the leaders, the Tories did much better. It is interesting that in our most recent poll in key marginal constituencies, Gordon Brown has a similar advantage over David Cameron in many of these key respects (though we don't have a recent national comparison either for the leaders or for what the voters expect a government of each party to be like). But Mr Cameron was still ahead nationally as "most capable Prime Minister" when we last asked it (in February).

But being a woman was an issue for Mrs Thatcher, as well: at the start of the campaign, 40% thought that the prospect of a female Prime Minister would hinder the Tories while 25% thought it would help; but only 29%, less than one in three, thought it would make no difference either way.

One vital difference between the two campaigns, of course, is that Brown and Cameron are to debate against each other and against Nick Clegg on television. In 1979, Callaghan offered to take part in a televised debate with Thatcher (the only previous British general election at which the Prime Minister agreed to do so), but she – perhaps feeling she had nothing to gain and everything to lose – ducked the challenge. The public thought – by 43% to 32% - that Callaghan would have come off best had the debate taken place; but they split almost evenly on whether Mrs Thatcher was right or wrong to refuse the invitation. Today, it is David Cameron who is expected to perform best in the debates, by a much wider margin than Callaghan had in his favour.

Finally, we might note that then, as now, voters were exercised by the prospect of a hung Parliament (although, since they had already had one for three years, that is hardly surprising). Two-thirds thought it would be a bad thing if no party achieved an overall majority and, earlier, 71% had said they disapproved of the Labour government making concessions to minority parties in return for their support in the Commons. Is that figure likely to be any lower today, when the public's first assumptions about a politician's motives tend to be suspicious ones? Something for all the party leaders to think about in the weeks ahead, perhaps.