Harris has small lead over Trump in latest Reuters/Ipsos Poll

Washington DC, August 29, 2024 — The latest Reuters/Ipsos national poll—conducted August 21-28, 2024—shows that Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has a small four-percentage-point lead among registered voters over Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump. The survey also shows that the events of the presidential campaigns so far have had a greater reported impact on Democrats’ level of enthusiasm than Republicans’.

Detailed findings:

1. Among registered voters, Harris receives 45% of the vote share and Trump receives 41% of the vote share; meanwhile, 3% of registered voters say they would vote for some other candidate, 3% say they would not vote altogether, and 7% say they don’t know. When including the names of third-party candidates, the results are not overly impacted: Harris receives 44% of the vote share, Trump receives 40%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives 6%, and other candidates receive 1% or less each. The survey was in field during the time of Kennedy’s announcement to end his campaign and endorse Trump.

2. At the national level, 42% of registered voters say they would support a Democratic candidate for Congress, while 41% say they would support a Republican candidate if the election for U.S. Congress were held today.

3. The events of the presidential campaigns have made Democratic registered voters more excited about voting in November when compared to Republican registered voters. 

   1. The majority of Democratic registered voters say they are more excited about voting in November because Joe Biden ended his re-election campaign (58%), because Harris entered the race for the Democratic nomination (73%), because Harris chose Tim Walz as her running mate (56%), and because they watched and/or attended the Democratic National Convention (52%).  

   2. In comparison, only 35% of Republican registered voters are more excited about voting in November after watching and/or attending the Republican National Convention, and just 38% say they are more excited now that Trump has chosen JD Vance as his running mate.

4. The survey explored confidence in the election results. Just 16% of Republican registered voters are very confident that the results of the election will be accurate and legitimate, compared to 67% of Democratic registered voters who say they are very confident. In total, 93% of Democratic registered voters are confident that the election results will be accurate and legitimate and 56% of Republican registered voters feel the same. Republican registered voters are also much more likely to say they believe voter fraud is a widespread problem, with 71% saying so compared to 41% of Americans generally, 16% of Democratic registered voters and 37% of independent registered voters.

   1. Seven in ten Americans (69%) say they are concerned that extremists will commit acts of violence after the election if they are unhappy with the outcome.  

   2. A majority (63%) of Americans trust election officials in their towns or counties to do their job honestly, including a majority of Republican registered voters (63%).

5. Americans view the economy (47%), inflation (39%), immigration (27%), and healthcare policy (26%) as the top issues right now. Republican registered voters are more concerned about the economy (63%), immigration (52%) and inflation (50%) than Democratic registered voters (economy – 35%, inflation – 26%, and immigration – 12%). Independent registered voters view the economy (51%), inflation (41%), and immigration (26%) as more important than Democratic registered voters and less important than Republican registered voters.

   1. Forty-two percent of Americans view Trump as outperforming Harris on the economy (33%). A similar number perceives Trump (41%) as better on inflation (Harris – 31%) and immigration (Trump – 43%, Harris – 33%). On healthcare policy, Harris (39%) has an advantage over Trump (29%).

6. Exploring policy preferences, the survey shows significant divergence among Republican registered voters and Democratic registered voters on several issues.

   1. Sixty-four percent of Americans would prefer focus on issues at home rather than spending money in conflicts in other countries, compared to 32% who would like leaders to use American strength to aid allies and prevent foreign conflict. Democratic registered voters are split, with 51% preferring to aid allies and prevent foreign conflict, and 47% preferring to focus on problems at home. Republican and independent registered voters prefer focusing on issues at home (73% and 64% respectively).

   2. On abortion, 61% of Americans would prefer to protect or increase access to abortion, with 92% of Democratic registered voters, 64% independent registered voters, and 34% of Republican registered voters feeling the same. Sixty-one percent of Republican registered voters would prefer to reduce access to or end abortions, compared to just 7% of Democratic and 31% of independent voters.

   3. On immigration, 59% of Americans would prefer securing the border while developing a path to legal status for current undocumented residents, with 87% of Democratic registered voters, 59% of independent registered voters, and 33% of Republican registered voters feeling this way. Just under two in five Americans (37%) and 66% of Republican registered voters would prefer to introduce aggressive policies to discourage illegal immigration and remove people currently in the country illegally. Forty percent of independent registered voters and just 12% of Democratic registered voters prefer more aggressive policies and removing people currently in the country illegally.

7. On foreign policy, two in five Americans say that the issues in Ukraine (41%) and Israel (39%) are none of our business and that we should not interfere, whereas a majority of Americans disagree with those statements. Republican registered voters are more likely to say that we should not interfere in Ukraine (53%) compared to 35% who say the same about Israel. There is a less strong, and opposite divergence among Democratic registered voters – 24% say the problems of Ukraine are none of our business and we shouldn’t interfere and 32% say the same about Israel.

About the Study

This Ipsos poll was conducted August 21-28, 2024 on behalf of Reuters using the KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a representative sample of 4,253 U.S. residents, age 18 or older.

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 1.6 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.11 for all adults. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 1.7 percentage points for registered voters. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult U.S. population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population.

The data for the total sample were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, Census region, education, household income, metropolitan status, and political party identification. The demographic benchmarks came from the 2023 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS). Political Party benchmarks came from NPORS 2024. More details about the weighting benchmarks for this study can be found below:

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
• Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other or 2+ Races Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
• Education (High School graduate or less, Some College, Bachelors and beyond)
• Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
• Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
• Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
• Party ID (Democrat, Lean Democrat, Republican, Lean Republican, Independent/Something else)

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2025
[email protected]

Annaleise Azevedo Lohr
Director, U.S.
Public Affairs
[email protected]

About Ipsos

Ipsos is one of the largest market research and polling companies globally, operating in 90 markets and employing over 18,000 people.

Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. Our 75 solutions are based on primary data from our surveys, social media monitoring, and qualitative or observational techniques.

Our tagline "Game Changers" sums up our ambition to help our 5,000 customers move confidently through a rapidly changing world.

Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has been listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and Mid-60 indices and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP www.ipsos.com