Where Latino Americans stand heading into the 2024 election

Latinos are one of the fastest growing voting demographics heading into 2024. With most early national polls showing President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in a close election, Latinos will be a crucial voting bloc to watch.

That said, national enthusiasm surrounding the showdown between Biden and Trump is low, and Latinos are no exception.

Below are five need-to-know points about Latinos as we look ahead to November.

1. What issues do Latinos care most about? Inflation has eased over the past year, but it’s still top of mind among Latinos. Crime and immigration follow as secondary concerns. Importantly, these are issues where Trump excels, and Biden underperforms. Watch this space.
2. Opposite directions. Over Biden’s presidency, his popularity among Latinos has seen a steady decline. Meanwhile, Trump’s popularity has seen a slight ascent. Troubling signs for Biden?
3. Biden gets little credit for the economy. Latinos feel positively on the Democratic party, but not so much on Biden. Importantly, while they view the Democrats and Republicans roughly equally on the economy, they give Trump far more props than Biden himself. When it comes to the economy, Biden has long struggled with a messaging problem. This hurts him among Latinos.
4. Among Latinos, immigration policy is complicated. Though still in the minority, Latino support for some hardline immigration policies has seen slight upticks. That said, support for providing a path to citizenship to people in the U.S. illegally has remained stable and a bare majority fears that the government will target all Latinos should a mass deportation occur. Amid record levels of immigrant encounters at the border, immigration has been surging as main issue. Are Trump’s hardline immigration policies becoming less of a deterrent among Latinos?
5. Are Latinos moving away from Biden? In 2020, while Biden won over Latinos decisively, Trump continued to make inroads among Latino voters. That trend seems to be holding true in 2024 – now, among Latinos, it’s almost neck and neck. It’s still too early to say anything conclusively – polls this far out don’t necessarily predict what will happen come election time. But these trends among Latinos are troubling signs for Biden and encouraging signs for Trump.

Latinos have traditionally been a strength for the Democratic party. That still holds true: Latinos still feel strongly that the party represents people like them and their values over the Republican party. However, their enthusiasm surrounding Biden is low. Latinos have become less and less enthusiastic about Biden, spurred in part by his struggles on immigration and economic messaging. Will these trends hold up through November? We will see.