All candidates remain second to Trump prior to the now-cancelled Republican debate in New Hampshire

Washington, DC, January 18, 2024-- A new 538/Ipsos poll conducted in the week leading up to the now-canceled sixth Republican presidential debate finds that Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley remain the biggest challengers to former president Donald Trump among likely Republican primary or caucus voters. However, both candidates trail far behind the former president, as Trump remains the frontrunner with two-thirds of voters considering voting for him.

The poll also finds that a majority of Republican voters believe it is unlikely that the recent rulings in Colorado and Maine removing Trump their respective ballots will stand. Lastly, a majority believes that these rulings are politically motivated. To read 538's story, click here.

Detailed Findings:

1. Trump’s standing among likely Republican primary or caucus voters continues to outpace his rivals.
   • Even without partaking in any debates, 66% of voters view Trump favorably. Only 32% have an unfavorable opinion of him.
   • Likely Republican caucus/primary voters that identify as independent have much less favorable views of Trump. Fifty-one percent have a favorable opinion, while 47% view him unfavorably.
   • In contrast, 76% of voters that identify as Republican report having a favorable opinion of Trump.
   • Two-thirds of Republican primary voters are considering voting for Trump (66%). The same partisan trend holds true here, as voters identifying as Republican (76%) are more likely to consider voting for Trump than independents (52%).
   • Fifty-six percent of voters have a favorable opinion of DeSantis. Nearly one in three (31%) that view him unfavorably, and just 13% have no opinion or have never heard of him. Forty-three percent are considering voting for him.

   • Forty-seven percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Haley. Twenty-nine percent now view her unfavorably, a seven-point increase from just before December’s debate. Additionally, one in four have either no opinion or have not heard of her. Thirty-eight percent are considering voting for Haley; in line with just before December’s debate (39%).

      

2. Few Republican primary voters believe the orders to remove Trump from the ballots in Colorado and Maine will stay in place.
   • Eighty-two percent are familiar with the rulings in Colorado and Maine that Trump cannot appear on the ballot as a candidate for president. Slightly fewer (75%), but a strong majority nonetheless, are also familiar with Trump asking the Supreme Court to overturn the ruling in Colorado.
   • Just 24% say it is likely that these rulings will stay in place. Voters ages 18-34 (33%) are more likely than their older counterparts to believe that these rulings will not be changed.
   • Seventy-three percent believe that the efforts to remove Trump from the ballot are politically motivated, compared to just one in ten that say it is justified by the law. A majority across all demographics believe these rulings are politically motivated.

About the Study 

This 538/Washington Post/Ipsos poll was conducted January 10 to January 17, 2024, by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally-representative probability sample of adults age 18 or older. Questions presented in this document were only asked of those who are likely to vote in the Republican primary or caucus (N=5,568). 

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult U.S. population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the U.S. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population. KnowledgePanel members receive a per survey incentive, usually the equivalent of $1 (though for some it is $2) in points, that can be redeemed for cash or prizes. No prenotification email for this study was sent prior to field. Panelists receive a unique login to the survey and are only able to complete it one time. Non-responders were sent reminders to increase participation. 

The study was conducted in both English and Spanish. The full sample, pre screening, was weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region, metropolitan status, household income, and party identification. The demographic benchmarks came from 2023 Current Population Survey (CPS) from the U.S. Census Bureau. Party ID benchmarks are from recent ABC News/Washington Post multi-night polls recent. The weighting categories were as follows: 

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
• Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other or 2+ Races Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
• Education (High School graduate or less, Some College, Bachelor and beyond)
• Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
• Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
• Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
• Party ID (Democrat, Republican, Independent, Something else)

Thirty-five respondents were removed from the final data for refusing all of the survey items. 

The margin of sampling error among those likely to vote in the Republican primary or caucus is plus or minus 1.55 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.40. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. Sampling error is only one potential source of error. There may be other unmeasured non-sampling error in this or any poll. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent. 

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2025
[email protected]

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