AP/Ipsos Presidential Poll 2004: Kerry, Gregoire Lead in Washington State Poll

Washington, DC -- John Kerry has a narrow lead over George W. Bush in the Ipsos-Public Affairs poll, conducted September 17-20 for Associated Press media partners in Washington State. Half (49%) of registered voters declare their support for Kerry-Edwards, while 42% back Bush-Cheney. Three percent either support or lean toward Nader-Camajo.

Support for both of the main candidates is strong: better than eight in ten Bush-Cheney and Kerry-Edwards supporters say they will "definitely" vote for their candidate. Fewer than one in ten who support one or the other candidate say they could change their mind.

Seattle Residents and Educated Women are Top Kerry-Edwards Supporters

In Washington, as in the nation at large, there is little evidence of a gender gap in this presidential race. Women lean towards the Democratic ticket (Bush-Cheney 40%; Kerry-Edwards 54%) and men are divided (45%-48%), but the gap between men and women is not statistically significant.

In fact, the differences in registered voters' the candidates' support lie elsewhere. Washingtonians with a college education (60%) and college-educated women in particular (66%) say they will vote for Kerry-Edwards. Regionally, residents of Seattle's King County overwhelmingly back Kerry-Edwards (67%), while residents of the urban Puget's Sound region and western Washington are divided. Residents of eastern Washington prefer Bush-Cheney (55%).

Economy and Iraq Vie as Top Election Issues

Six in ten Washington voters name either the economy and jobs (29%) or Iraq (29%) as the most important issue when deciding how to vote for President. Health care and homeland security are the next most often cited issues.

Washington voters who say the economy and jobs is the top issue support Kerry (65%) over Bush (29%), as so voters who say Iraq is the key issue (64% Kerry, 36% Bush). However, voters who name any of the other issues - and especially homeland security -- tend to support Bush (56%) over Kerry (34%).

On Iraq, registered voters in Washington State tend to say going to war in Iraq was a mistake (53%); 44% say it was the right decision. That said, six in ten also say that U.S. troops should be kept in Iraq until a stable government is formed. Just over a third (37%) think U.S. troops should be brought home as soon as possible.

Washington voters' views toward Iraq can be understood by grouping them into four categories. The largest group (38%) take the position that has been consistently held by President Bush: it was the right decision to go to war in Iraq, and now U.S. troops should stay until a stable Iraqi government is formed. Indeed, people in this group overwhelmingly support Bush (89%) over Kerry 6%). The next largest group (30% of registered voters) are firmly anti-war. They say that going to war was a mistake and U.S. troops should be brought home as soon as possible. Nearly all the people in this group back Kerry (87%).

One in five voters take the position that going to war was a mistake, but that the U.S. should keep troops there until a stable government is formed. Very few Washington voters (6%) take the position that it was the right thing to go to war but that troops should be withdrawn as soon as possible - a position that is closest to Kerry's earlier position on the war. Recently, the Democratic candidate seems to have moved closer to the position that the war was a mistake but that U.S. troops must stabilize the situation - an altogether more popular position that has the potential to appeal in some degree to the anti-war voters as well.

Democrat Gregoire leads Republican Rossi in Governor's Race

After a resounding win in the Democratic primary earlier this month, Christine Gregoire has a six-point lead over Republican candidate Dino Rossi in the gubernatorial race. Two-thirds of both candidates' supporters say they will "definitely vote for that candidate."

Economy and Jobs Top Issue in Gubernatorial Race

Nearly four in ten registered voters say that the economy and jobs (38%) will be the most important issue when they decide how to vote for governor. Education, health care and taxes tie for second place. People who say the economy is the most important issue tend to favor Gregoire (52%) over Rossi (38%), while those who favor all other issues are divided between Gregoire (48%) and Rossi (47%).

Gregoire is attracting many voters who are critical of the state of the economy in Washington. Nearly half of those polled say the economy in their area is worse today than four years ago, and most (72%) of these say they will vote for Gregoire. Those who say the economy in there area is the same four years ago back Rossi ( 61%; 36% Gregoire), while those who say the economy is better tend to back Rossi (83%).

Divided Views on the Role of the Government in the Economy

Nearly half (49%) of registered voters in Washington say the state government does more to hurt rather than help (37%) economic growth, although this view is far from unanimous.

Similarly, there are divided views on whether tax breaks for large employers really keep jobs in Washington. Half (50%) say these tax breaks do help to create and keep jobs in the state. However, nearly as many (44%) say these tax breaks divert resources that could be better spent on state services.

One state program that received widespread support is expending state-paid health care for low-income individuals - seven in ten (72%) support this proposal.

Of the state initiatives scheduled to be on the ballot in November, one of the most popular ones will allow for open voting in primary elections. Two-thirds of Washington voters support the measure, Independent voters especially so (77% support).

[+] click to enlarge

The initiative to allow slot machines is less likely to pass, with just over half (54%) currently supporting the measure. Voters are even more closely divided over increasing the state sales tax by 1% in order to fund public education (52% support, 47% oppose). Similarly, about half (53%) back a recent law to allow charter schools, although there is a fair amount of uncertainty on the issue (11% not sure).

The debate over public education is clearly divided along party lines. Seven in ten (69%) Gregoire supporters, but only 37% of Rossi supporters, favor increasing the sales tax to fund education. Conversely, Rossi's backers are solidly in favor of charter schools (72%), compared to just 39% of Gregoire voters.

Electorate Divided on Gay Marriage

Another issue that divides Washington voters is gay marriage. A wide majority of Democrats (65%) and a plurality of Independents (49%) support gay marriage, while most (86%) Republicans are opposed. King County residents are solidly for gay marriage (63%), while half or more in the rest of the state are opposed.

The Associated Press Poll is conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Between September 17-19, 2004, the AP-Ipsos poll interviewed a representative sample of 500 adults, 406 registered voters in Washington State. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 for all adults and +/- 4.9 for registered voters. Margin of error for subgroups may be higher. To view the complete filled-in questionnaire for this survey, please click on the Topline Results pdf at the top of this page. For more information on this press release, please contact: Janice Bell Director, Ipsos Public Affairs Washington, D.C. 202.463.7300 About Ipsos Public Affairs Ipsos Public Affairs, headquartered in Washington D.C., is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research company made up of campaign and political polling veterans as well as seasoned research professionals. The company conducts strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research but often elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research. It has offices in New York City, Chicago, San Francisco, and Washington, with affiliates around the world. Ipsos Public Affairs conducts national and international public opinion polling on behalf of The Associated Press, the world's oldest and largest news organization, and conducts the young voters poll for Newsweek.com. Ipsos Public Affairs is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group. To learn more, visit: www.ipsos-na.com/news/pa About Ipsos Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals. Ipsos helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and reactions of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world. Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media. They measure public opinion around the globe. Ipsos member companies offer expertise in advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research, as well as forecasting and modeling and consulting. Ipsos has a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies. The company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded since 1999. In 2003, Ipsos generated global revenues of $644.2 million U.S. To learn more, visit: www.ipsos.com Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris Premier Marchй, and is part of the SBF 120 and Next Prime Indices as well as eligible to the Deferred Settlement System (SRD). Euroclear code 7329, Reuters ISOS.LN, Bloomberg IPS FP