Most Americans believe the presidential election will have a major impact on the future of the Supreme Court

New USA Today/Ipsos polling finds that many Americans see the Supreme Court’s presidential immunity decision as a major threat to democracy, with most supporting President Biden’s proposed reforms

The author(s)
  • Mallory Newall Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Chris Jackson Senior Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Sarah Feldman Editorial Director, US, Public Affairs
  • Bernard Mendez Data Journalist, US, Public Affairs
  • Johnny Sawyer Senior Research Manager, US, Public Affairs
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Washington DC, August 09, 2024—A new USA Today/Ipsos poll finds that most Americans believe the upcoming 2024 presidential election will have a major impact on the future of the Supreme Court. Most Americans are familiar with recent decisions by the court, including Dobbs and the presidential immunity ruling, though fewer are aware of Biden’s proposal to reform the court.

Americans are more likely to believe the Supreme Court decides cases on the basis of their political views over the law, though many also aren’t sure how the court comes to their decisions. Among the justices, Justice Sonia Sotomayor is the most favored justice. Justice Neil Gorsuch has the lowest favorability rating, driven by Americans not knowing him, while Justice Clarence Thomas has the highest unfavorable rating, which has fallen significantly over the past two years.

Detailed findings:

1. While the economy is the top issue, SCOTUS nominations are certainly in the second tier of issues driving votes in the presidential election.

  • Four in five Americans (81%) say that the nominations to the Supreme Court will be important for how they are planning to vote in the presidential election in November. Similar to immigration (84%) in its importance in driving Americans to the polls.
  • Democrats generally say SCOTUS nominations are more important, with 70% of Democrats rating Supreme Court nominations as “very important” to their vote in November, which represents more energy around this issue for Democrats than the economy (62% say the economy will be very important to their vote).
  • Perhaps related to driving out people’s votes, over four in five agree “the outcome of the next presidential election will have a major impact on the future of the Supreme Court,” which regardless of partisanship Americans agree on. More than four in five Americans believe the presidential election will have a major impact on the future of the Supreme Court

2. Most Americans are familiar with marquee court cases, like the Dobbs decision or the presidential immunity ruling, but fewer are aware of Biden’s Supreme Court reform proposals, the decision overturning Chevron, or Trump’s “don’t have to vote again” speech.

  • Most Americans are familiar with Dobbs and the presidential immunity ruling, but only half or less are aware of Biden’s proposals to reform the Supreme Court, Trump’s “don’t have to vote again” speech, or the decision overturning Chevron.
  • However, regardless of how much they have seen or heard, many Americans (46%) view the Supreme Court’s presidential immunity decision as a major threat to democracy.
  • Likewise, when hearing about Biden’s proposals, majorities support the specific proposals in Biden’s SCOTUS plan. That includes a decisive majority of Republicans (70%) who support establishing a binding code of conduct for justices, and a bare majority of Republicans (54% and 51%, respectively) support enacting a Constitutional amendment to make clear that no person is above the law, even the President of the United States, and imposing term limits of a single 18-year term for justices. Majorities of Democrats and independents also support these proposed reforms. Majority support establishing a code of conduct for Supreme Court justices
  • Court packing remains largely unpopular, with just over one in three supporting expanding the size of the court. Few Republicans (20%) and independents (40%) support this, though a majority of Democrats do (62%). Majority support term limits for Supreme Court justices, while support for expanding the court is split along party lines

3. A plurality of Americans feel the Supreme Court decides cases on the basis of their political views, not the law, with deep partisan divisions baked into how Americans view the court. Justice Sotomayor is the most favored justice, while Justice Thomas has the highest unfavorable rating, something that has worsened considerably over the past two years.

  • More Americans think the court decides cases on the basis of political views (46%) than the law (29%) even as many Americans report that they don’t know (23%).
  • Americans, at the topline level, are mixed on their favorability of the court (41% favorable vs. 44% unfavorable). However, that masks deep partisan divisions. Republicans view the court favorably (66% view it favorably vs. 20% unfavorable), while Democrats are far more unfavorable toward the court (23% favorable vs. 71% unfavorable). Independents are more mixed, but lean unfavorably toward the court (38% view it favorably vs. 45% unfavorably).
  • Justice Sotomayor is the most favored justice. Justice Gorsuch has the lowest favorability (with about half not knowing him). Justice Thomas has the highest unfavorable numbers, with more Americans viewing him unfavorably rather than favorably (42% unfavorable vs. 27% favorable).
  • There have been significant shifts overtime. Most notably, Justice Thomas’ favorability softened over the past two years. In 2022, 28% of Americans viewed Justice Thomas unfavorably; two years later 42% of Americans view him unfavorably. Democrats (72% unfavorable in 2024 vs. 46% in 2022) and independents (41% unfavorable in 2024 vs. 26% in 2022) largely drive this change.
  • Likewise, the Chief Justice John Roberts, Justice Brett Kavanaugh, Justice Samuel Alito, Justice Amy Coney Barret, and Justice Gorsuch have all seen their favorability decline in the past two years, largely driven by Democrats and independents viewing these justices more unfavorably.
  • Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson has also seen her favorability soften (33% in 2024 vs. 42% in 2022), mostly driven by an uptick in people who don’t know or are unfamiliar with her. Over the past two years, the favorability of some of the justices has softened

About the Study

This poll was conducted by Ipsos from August 2-4, 2024, using the probability-based KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,024 adults age 18 or older, including 282 Republican respondents, 324 Democratic respondents, and 310 independent respondents.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult U.S. population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the U.S. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population.

The study was conducted in English. The data for the total sample were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region, metropolitan status, and household income. Party ID benchmarks are from the 2024 National Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS). The demographic benchmarks came from the 2023 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS).

  • Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45-59 and 60+)
  • Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other, Non-Hispanic, Hispanic, 2+ Races, Non-Hispanic)
  • Education (Less than High School, High School, Some College, Bachelor or higher)
  • Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
  • Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
  • Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
  • Party ID (Republican, Leans Republican, Independent/Other, Democrat, Leans Democrat)

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.09. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 6.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the sample of Republican adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.06. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 5.6 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the sample of Democratic adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.06. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 5.9 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the sample of independent adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.11.  The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2025
[email protected]

Mallory Newall
Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 374-2613
[email protected]

About Ipsos

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Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. Our 75 solutions are based on primary data from our surveys, social media monitoring, and qualitative or observational techniques.

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The author(s)
  • Mallory Newall Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Chris Jackson Senior Vice President, US, Public Affairs
  • Sarah Feldman Editorial Director, US, Public Affairs
  • Bernard Mendez Data Journalist, US, Public Affairs
  • Johnny Sawyer Senior Research Manager, US, Public Affairs

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