Satisfaction with presidential candidates higher after Biden exit

Washington DC, August 18, 2024— New ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos polling finds that Americans are significantly more satisfied with Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump as the majority-party candidates for president than they were in July with President Joe Biden and Trump as the candidates. As the election approaches, Trump performs better on Americans’ top two issues: the economy and inflation. However, Harris has the edge in terms of her perceived mental and physical health. More Americans say they would be enthusiastic or satisfied if Harris is elected president over Trump.

Detailed findings:

1. Americans are more satisfied with their major-party choices for president now than they were in early July.

• Forty-four percent of Americans are satisfied with choosing between Harris and Trump for president. While this is still not a majority, it represents a 16-point increase from July, when Biden and Trump were the presumed choices.
• Half of Americans say they would feel enthusiastic or satisfied if Harris is elected president, representing a slight edge over Trump on this question. By comparison, 45% of Americans say they would feel enthusiastic or satisfied if Trump is elected president.
• A slim majority believe Harris is qualified to serve as president (53%). Around half say the same of Trump (47%).
• In terms of how they are viewed as people, Harris’ favorability breaks even (45% favorable, 44% unfavorable). However, significantly more Americans have an unfavorable view of Trump (35% favorable, 57% unfavorable), in line with ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos polling from early July.

2. While Trump performs better on the main issue, Americans feel Harris’ mental sharpness and physical fitness to be president are better.

• The economy (89%) and inflation (86%) are the issues that Americans say will be most important in their choice of which candidate to support. Second tier issues include protecting American democracy (77%), health care (77%), crime and safety (76%), the immigration situation at the U.S.-Mexico border (70%), and appointments to the Supreme Court (65%).
• Americans trust Trump more to handle the economy (Trump +9), inflation (Trump +9), and the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border (Trump +10). In contrast, Harris has more trust when it comes to protecting American democracy (Harris +6) and appointments to the Supreme Court (Harris +5).
• While Harris does not perform as well on the main issue, she does have an edge in terms of her perceived mental and physical fitness. Significantly more Americans believe she is both in good enough physical health (56% Harris vs 26% Trump) and has the mental sharpness (46% Harris vs 37% Trump) it takes to serve effectively in office than Trump. Notably, last month Trump had the edge over Biden on the question of mental and physical fitness.
• Harris is also viewed by Americans as more honest and trustworthy (41% Harris vs 26% Trump), understanding the problems of people like them (40% Harris vs 33% Trump), and representing their personal values (40% Harris vs 34% Trump).

Washington DC, August 16, 2024— New ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos polling finds half of Americans approve of Vice President Kamala Harris’ selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate for vice president. Slightly fewer Americans approve of former President Donald Trump’s selection of Senator JD Vance as his running mate. Overall, Americans’ impression of Walz is mixed, with many having no opinion of him. However, those who have an opinion of Gov. Walz have a more favorable than unfavorable impression of him. On the other hand, more Americans hold an unfavorable rather than favorable impression of Senator Vance, even as many aren’t as familiar with him.

Detailed findings:

1. When it comes to the two major parties’ vice-presidential picks, slightly more Americans approve of Harris’ pick of Walz over Trump’s pick of Vance.

• A bare majority of Americans (52%) approve of Walz as Harris’ running mate, while 44% of Americans disapprove and 5% skip the question.
• Most Democrats (88%) and a bare majority of independents (53%) approve of Walz as the Democratic pick for VP, while a minority of Republicans (22%) approve of the pick.
• Forty-five percent of Americans approve of Vance as Trump’s running mate, while 50% disapprove and 5% skip the question.
• Four in five Republicans (81%) approve of Vance as the Republican pick for VP, while fewer than half of independents (42%) and Democrats (17%) approve of the pick.

2. Walz's favorability is slightly higher than Vance’s with the public, though views of each candidate are not fully formed as partisanship colors the impressions Americans do have.

• More Americans have a favorable over unfavorable impression of Walz (39% favorable vs. 30% unfavorable), though many either skipped the question or don’t have an opinion of the Democratic vice-presidential pick (31%).
• For Vance, more Americans have an unfavorable rather favorable impression of him (32% favorable vs. 42% unfavorable), though about one in four Americans did not respond or have no opinion (26%).
• Three in four Democrats (75%) have a favorable impression of Walz, while 38% of independents and 12% of Republicans view Walz favorably. A minority of respondents across partisanship do not have an opinion on Walz (36% of independents vs. 28% of Republicans and 18% of Democrats). More Republicans hold an unfavorable view of him than Democrats and independents (60% among Republicans, vs. 7% among Democrats and 26% among independents).
• Republicans, however, hold a more favorable view of Vance than Democrats and independents (67% Republicans vs. 7% Democrats and 28% independents).
• Most Democrats and a plurality of independents have an unfavorable impression of Vance (75% of Democrats vs. 43% of independents vs. 13% of Republicans).
• Still, many don’t have an opinion on Vance (28% of independents, 20% of Republicans, and 18% of Democrats).

About the Study

This ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll was conducted August 9 to 13, 2024, by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel^®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 2,336 adults age 18 or older.

Sixty-six respondents were removed from the data for either refusing to answer 50% or more of all eligible questions or for completing the survey within 2% fastest completion durations.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult US population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population. KnowledgePanel members receive a per survey incentive, usually the equivalent of $1 (though for some it is $2) in points, that can be redeemed for cash or prizes. No prenotification email for this study was sent prior to field. Panelists receive a unique login to the survey and are only able to complete it one time. Two email reminders were sent to hard-to-reach respondents. Hard-to-reach is defined as 18-29 years old or non-Whites, less than high school or did not vote in the 2020 presidential election.  The remainder of the sample received one reminder email.

The study was conducted in both English and Spanish. The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region by metropolitan status, household income, language dominance, 2020 presidential vote choice, and party identification. The demographic benchmarks came from 2023 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS) from the US Census Bureau. Language dominance benchmarks are from the 2022 American Community Survey (ACS). The 2020 presidential vote choice benchmarks came from the federal elections 2020 election results for the U.S. President while the Party Identification came from the 2024 National Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS). The weighting categories were as follows:

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
• Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other or 2+ Races Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
• Education (No high school diploma or GED, High school graduate (high school diploma or the equivalent GED), Some college or Associate’s degree, Bachelor’s degree, Master’s degree or above)
• Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West) by Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
• Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
• Language Dominance (English dominant, Bilingual, Spanish dominant, non-Hispanic)
• 2020 Presidential Vote Choice (Biden, Trump, Another candidate, Not asked)
• Party Identification (Republican, Lean Republican, Independent/Not lean, Lean Democrat, Democrat).

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.16. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. Sampling error is only one potential source of error. There may be other unmeasured non-sampling error in this or any poll. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2025
[email protected]

Mallory Newall
Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 374-2613
[email protected]

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